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Winter 24-25 Thoughts, long range model musings


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Posted
  • Location: Kent, unfortunately
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters, warm, early spring, cool, gentle summer, stormy autumn
  • Location: Kent, unfortunately

 SqueakheartLW I could see it happening in Scotland back in the day, if they got a constant northerly setup over the summer and then winter was an incredibly mild SWly that had a tendency to go straight into the highlands, but nowadays even northerlies don't seem to get all that cool in summer anymore. You still end up having the random mid-20s day with that kind of setup.

I could see it happening to spring or autumn though, if we had December 2015 but for the entire winter non-stop, then a spring that consisted of March 2006/2013, April 2012/2021 and May 2021. The latter would surely end up notably cooler than the winter before it. In autumn it's a really hard ask as September-mid October tends to still be quite warm, but I imagine it's still possible with a historically cold autumn, and then December 2015 but even milder, a modern repeat of January 1916 which would likely bring consecutive days above 20°C in Wales, and then an unholy hybrid of Februaries 1998 and 2024.

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Posted
  • Location: Stratford-upon-Avon (but also St Helier, Jersey)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, gales, extreme temps. Vampire - dislikes sunshine.
  • Location: Stratford-upon-Avon (but also St Helier, Jersey)

 *Stormforce~beka* Awful, it was almost that bad last year.

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Posted
  • Location: Delph, historic West Riding of Yorkshire, 225m asl
  • Weather Preferences: All 4 seasons and a good mixture of everything and anything!
  • Location: Delph, historic West Riding of Yorkshire, 225m asl

For me in this day and age I just cannot understand why someone would boldly say, we are going to have a cold Winter - the amount of months these days with an above average CET is beyond ridiculous to be honest. 1 month since December 2022 with a below average month - June 2024, which I believe was something like -0.0000000001 below average. 

To randomly then just go on a stretch of three cold months in a row magically over the Winter (or at least 2) would just not seem believable. 

 

Instead there have been plenty of milder Winters with a milder than average CET which have still featured a fair number of colder spells. 2002-03, 2003-04, 2004-05, 2007-08 (inc. Spring), 2014-15, 2020-21 all examples. I'd take any of those Winters. If its going to be mild which is highly likely, still more than possible we can get a good few cold snaps here and there. 

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Posted
  • Location: Delph, historic West Riding of Yorkshire, 225m asl
  • Weather Preferences: All 4 seasons and a good mixture of everything and anything!
  • Location: Delph, historic West Riding of Yorkshire, 225m asl

 raz.org.rain Exactly. I completely get that the Summer did lack any major sustained heavy heatwaves which we've seen often over recent years. It lacked a desire for heat on the whole, it was a pretty poor Summer, very forgettable at times but as you say - still comfortably finished with a CET well over the 61-90 average. It didn't even have to 'try'. I kind of feel June tried its heart out to finish colder than average, and it succeeded, but barely ...

That all said, what I do know is there were plenty of periods in the Summer, as well as various regions around the UK which did indeed record a cooler than average month/season when compared to a more modern average i.e. 91-20. 

91-20 still contained some notable cold periods. For this exact reason there's no reason for me to be so pessimistic. I still think we can potentially have some very cold snaps, just like we did variously throughout June and September in Summer terms. 

My original post I think was more targeted at anyone generally thinking we can experience, or think we are going to experience, a 78-79 or 09-10 type Winter this year. I feel those days are gone, in the current era anyway - but stranger things have happened of course. 

One of the best examples in more recent times of a decent heavy cold spell amongst these milder Winters is December 2022 - the 1st half(ish) was so cold at times. Just felt so deeply cold and crisp. Unfortunate that for most there wasn't much snow come out of it. But that relatively recent event shows it can still happen, even in milder periods in general. 20-21 in general also a decent cooler (coolish) Winter in what has otherwise been an ever increasing increase of periods where we go months and months without a colder than average CET. 
 

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

 StretfordEnd1996 Yes the period late Nov to 18 Dec 2022 was significantly colder than average. Whilst not a calandar month, I think the 3 weeks brought a mean some 3 degrees below the norm, every bit as cold as any of the significant cold spells of yesteryear, and proof severe cold can still occur. To expect severe cold to last weeks and weeks has always been a very low probability.

There has been a propensity for colder than average months to come in clusters. The last occurance quite some time ago, Jan- May 21. 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Delph, historic West Riding of Yorkshire, 225m asl
  • Weather Preferences: All 4 seasons and a good mixture of everything and anything!
  • Location: Delph, historic West Riding of Yorkshire, 225m asl
Just now, damianslaw said:

Yes the period late Nov to 18 Dec 2022 was significantly colder than average. Whilst not a calandar month, I think the 3 weeks brought a mean some 3 degrees below the norm, every bit as cold as any of the significant cold spells of yesteryear, and proof severe cold can still occur. To expect severe cold to last weeks and weeks has always been a very low probability.

There has been a propensity for colder than average months to come in clusters. The last occurance quite some time ago, Jan- May 21. 

Thanks for the reply! 

Yes, in terms of that December 2022 spell. I have probably overlooked it slightly since it occurred, most notably because it lacked any significant snowfall (for most anyway), and immediately when it finished I felt it was a disappointment. But having said that, looking back on it, it really was cold. Significantly cold at times, and like you said, had a feeling of "yesteryear". It almost felt like a mini shorter version of Dec 2010 a times - I think the CET of 1st to 15th Dec 2022 (or it may be a bit of an earlier 15 day frame window, as you said), was something like within the 20 coldest on record? Or one of the coldest 1st halfs to December since 1900? Cannot remember for certain, but it was something akin to this. 

So it does still happen these colder periods and spells, they tend not to be as frequent or long lasting, and often, they are completely missing from the Winter in general. But who knows. 

 

5 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

There has been a propensity for colder than average months to come in clusters. The last occurance quite some time ago, Jan- May 21. 

Yes I agree. I mean, I suppose this has happened since June to some degree - just not overly when compared to 61-90 average. 
But the fact is, the last four months have tended to be between 0.0 and 0.5 above the 61-90 average. 

If we can keep a bit of a run like that up, and say the three winter months were something like .. 0.1, 0.4 and 0.6 above the 61-90 average, maybe even one being below the average, that'd be more than still cool enough for a handful or several decent cold snaps to occur at the least.

It's these balmy CETs of over +1.5 that I detest. They are no good. 😛

 

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
3 hours ago, StretfordEnd1996 said:

If we can keep a bit of a run like that up, and say the three winter months were something like .. 0.1, 0.4 and 0.6 above the 61-90 average, maybe even one being below the average, that'd be more than still cool enough for a handful or several decent cold snaps to occur at the least.

I don't think too many (winter cold lovers) on here would complain much with that!

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Posted
  • Location: Scunthorpe
  • Location: Scunthorpe

My first bit of analysis of past data to show the potential winter 2024/25 outcome focuses on ENSO. My tests were all years that followed an El Nino of any type or strength which went on to transition to a neutral cold or La Nina event and this is split into two categories.

First we have El Nino events that transitioned into an east based cold event of either neutral cold (with coldest anomalies in the eastern Pacific) or EP La Nina's and second we have El Nino events that transitioned into a central based cold event of either neutral cold (Coldest anomalies in central Pacific) or CP La Nina's.

Then the relevant November to March period of CET's and their anomalies are brought up and averaged out. The results for both are below

Untitled.thumb.png.d907f590e38e70d93b264461e0cc5121.png

A very clear signal can be seen here

The El Nino to Neutral Cold (EP) and EP La Nina years have a very clear cold signal with negative anomalies for all months between November and March. You couldn't get any more clear cut with this one with the coldest signal for the December's on average but all months have a noticeable cold signal. Cold lovers will be praying we get either Neutral Cold with an eastern focus or a full blown EP La Nina as this signal looks promising

The El Nino to Neutral Cold (CP) and CP La Nina years have a more definite mild signal with only really November with a slight cold signal. After this it's average or mild all the way with only December and March really coming out average. January looks like a write off for anything significantly cold with February less mild but still above average. Let's hope we don't end up with a cold focus in the central Pacific as the years that see this following an El Nino don't look all that promising for cold.

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Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

CP-EP methodology certainly one of the parameters under real test conditions this winter, my gut says the historical transports and pathways are now more muted. Still, lots of signs of the early season tilt abound. Another one where we are in new paradigm situation again - it's a great study / test.

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire

 SqueakheartLW If the LRF's a seeing CP La Nina, then that would explain why they are going for a mild winter!  It would seem that even a weak CP La Nina is bad news!  The only real glimmer of hope is that 2010/11 occurred during a CP event.

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Posted
  • Location: Delph, historic West Riding of Yorkshire, 225m asl
  • Weather Preferences: All 4 seasons and a good mixture of everything and anything!
  • Location: Delph, historic West Riding of Yorkshire, 225m asl

 johncam completely agree 😕

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire

 johncam Very true!  However, it would be good just to get a few cold snaps and decent snow events, even if they are only short lived.

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Posted
  • Location: Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: snowy winters, warm and dry summers
  • Location: Surrey

Seems like the forcast has picked up on a possibility of an SSW image.thumb.png.ddfc6c71c88076e26ff6fca6f8b0b8d8.png

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

 Jacob The thing that is most notable about this plot is that in mid October, all the ensembles are blow the lower extreme of the model extended range climate.  That’s quite a statement on the weakness of the vortex.

Beyond that, there are some members with a reversal in November, equally there are some members with a really strong vortex too.  I think it is normal to see the odd straggler showing a SSW at this range in November.  I think what will be interesting is what this plot looks like 10 days from now.  

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Posted
  • Location: Delph, historic West Riding of Yorkshire, 225m asl
  • Weather Preferences: All 4 seasons and a good mixture of everything and anything!
  • Location: Delph, historic West Riding of Yorkshire, 225m asl
On 01/10/2024 at 17:01, mountain shadow said:

A seasonally cold Christmas and New Year would suit me.

2001-02-esque 

A largely mild and forgettable Winter, the sole interest coming from the Winter's cold sole cold spell around the Festive period

image.thumb.png.59f194aee6a4ea682757d441ad909afa.png
image.thumb.png.8ffdf4574dbc23c66f0347ffe4faab56.png

I wonder if there's any other examples of mild Winters whereby the only cold interest came at a time of the year people often crave it.

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Posted
  • Location: Gosport, Hampshire, Uk
  • Weather Preferences: Winter spring autumn
  • Location: Gosport, Hampshire, Uk

Looks like the ecm LRf has updated, or am I reading it wrong

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