Winter 24-25 Thoughts, long range model musings

[Don]

 Relativistic Kind of but winter 2012/13 was colder than average and 2017/18 did have some cold snaps throughout before the BFTE arrived.

[Relativistic]

 Don Was referring to the comment about snow persisting in March

[SiGh]

A mixture of

Settled weeks, cold and frosty

Mild, wet, Atlantic driven

Colder, North Westerlies, with some snowy outbreaks, lasting 2 or 3 days

NO prolonged cold spell from the NE or East

South generally average temps, colder oop North

[jules216]

I have published my december forecast as blog, please use translator.

 

Predpoved pocasia pre December 2024

METEOGEMER.BLOGSPOT.COM

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24.11.2024                                     PREDPOVED POCASIA PRE DECEMBER 2024 Predslov: Tato predikcia je venovaná mojim stálym priazni...

 

[Don]

Mark Vogan's Winter 2024/25 Forecast

 

[IanT]

MetO 3-month outlook has been updated:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/3moutlook_djf_v1.pdf

Perhaps the most committed/noteworthy forecast is the low probability accorded to a colder than average period.

 

[Methuselah]

 IanT

Who woulda thunk it!  

[SiGh]

LOL! Roll on an early warm Spring

Best to hope for, will be some 'old-fashioned' NW incursions, with snow showers piling in, before colder weather gets shunted away, i reck.

Edited November 25, 2024 by SiGh

[RJBingham]

 IanT Wow, we'll be saving a fortune on the heating then.

Edited November 25, 2024 by RJBingham

[Don]

2 hours ago, SiGh said:

Best to hope for, will be some 'old-fashioned' NW incursions, with snow showers piling in, before colder weather gets shunted away, i reck.

I would take that these days!

[damianslaw]

 IanT 55% vs 45% something either near average/below vs milder. So odds are not milder overall.. still I think by near average they are based on 91-20 means, and could be within a 0.5 degree range.. though not sure the parameters.

Its tough to record below average seasons, so no surprise to see such a forecast. The expectation is for mild rather than cold though but as ever this does not mean no cold at all, just that any cold weather may be rather short, but could still be potent. 2 or 3 5 day cold spells as occured last week which would be more potent could easily manifest. This is not a forecast but feel this winter will not be without cold interest at times.. 

[IanT]

23 hours ago, damianslaw said:

55% vs 45% something either near average/below vs milder.

That’s an acutely rose-tinted interpretation. It would be equally valid to say ”95% vs 5% something either near average/above vs colder”…!

If you were to split the central 50% equally instead of allocating it one way or the other according to revealed preference, you’d have 70% on the mild side and 30% on the cold side. This would be a more reasonable/supportable interpretation of the MetO output. 

23 hours ago, damianslaw said:

as ever this does not mean no cold at all, just that any cold weather may be rather short, but could still be potent.

This I agree with 100%!

Edited November 26, 2024 by IanT

[syed2878]

For those of us who want a cold winter, then this model round up does not inspire any confidence anyway take a look at this video from Gav’s weather vids

 

[SiGh]

 syed2878 i think those charts are 4 weeks old now, so guess it's poss they could've changed? Maybe?

[damianslaw]

Reference to seasonal models I can't recall the last time any seasonal model has gone for a colder season... anyone name last occasion any model did. I don't look at them, not to say they aren't right, just that I know they will go mild, spring, summer, autumn, winter, always. 

[sebastiaan1973]

A nice read.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/11/december-appears-poised-to-evolve.html

 

[Summer Sun]

The Weather Outlook (TWO) are going for a milder and wetter than average winter, with some cold snaps still likely.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/uk-seasonal-weather-forecast

 

[WYorksWeather]

 damianslaw It really comes down to extent I think. A model showing 0.5C or so above 1991-2020 is relatively unremarkable these days. A model showing 1-2C or more above average for a season is a more notably above average season.

[raz.org.rain]

 WYorksWeather I do wonder what the LRFs were suggesting for summer 2022 and 2018. 

[WYorksWeather]

 raz.org.rain I do recall some reference to an EC46 forecast from mid-June that signalled a very hot week from 18th-25th July 2022 in some commentary I saw on the build up to that heatwave. But I can't find it now.

[Don]

 Summer Sun beat me to it with the TWO winter outlook!  Little cheer for coldies from that forecast, but as always, we shall see.

Edited November 30, 2024 by Don

[WYorksWeather]

 Don A lot of forecasts do seem to point towards December as being the best chance - will be interesting to see how those forecasts hold up. I think many of us would take that - a cold December with snow, then a mild January and February would be better than we've done in a lot of years recently.

I'm still sticking with above average 1991-2020 for all three months as my forecast, though.

[Don]

 WYorksWeather I suppose that would be generally typical in a La Nina winter to have any cold earlier on and the rest of the season predominantly mild?  I would certainly take cold and snow in December, however, if we are to have a mild winter overall, I would rather have cold/snowy snaps equally spread across three months.  I too think all three winter months will be above average, but hopefully not mild all the way!

[WYorksWeather]

 Don For me it would depend. I don't mind a spring-like February, especially the second half, because by that point any cold snaps are far less likely to produce a lengthy spell of snow cover in any case.

If we assume the season has to finish 1C above 1991-2020 (it may not, but let's go with that), I'd happily take something along these lines:

December - first half 1.5C above average, second half 1C below average.

January - first half 1C below average, second half 2C above average.

February - first half 1.5C above average, second half 3C above average.

This would in effect be 'winter is over' by mid-January, but I'd take it to have an interesting December. Particularly if it included a snowy Christmas or New Year.

 

Edited November 30, 2024 by WYorksWeather

[Don]

14 minutes ago, WYorksWeather said:

This would in effect be 'winter is over' by mid-January, but I'd take it to have an interesting December. Particularly if it included a snowy Christmas or New Year.

Now this would be great and being off work for the Christmas period would allow me (and others) to make the most of it, too!

Ref to February, I would like a cold first half as that would still allow for a lengthy snow cover.  However, come the 2nd half we would need something more exceptional i.e. a BFTE 2018 style setup!