Winter 24-25 Thoughts, long range model musings

[WYorksWeather]

 Don Yep, February is very much analogous to August in this respect - it changes a lot from the start to the end of the month. Early February / August is still deep winter / full summer respectively. Not surprising to get some of the coldest or hottest days of the year in that timeframe. But late February / August really feels like the start of the transition to spring / autumn respectively. You can still get significant cold spells / heatwaves, but it becomes a lot harder, and the chances of a really notable spell become a lot lower.

I always think of the coldest period of winter as being the last week of December, plus January, and then the first week of February. Same in summer, when the hottest period I tend to think of as the last week of June, all of July, and the first week of August. I would say when you look at the history, those are the absolute peaks within the winter and summer periods for cold and heat respectively.

[summer blizzard]

So I’ve been looking at the data for my own winter thoughts..

December will feature a Euro High during the first half but an increasingly -NAO pattern as winter progresses. Overall Milder than average. I’ve lean wetter than average. 

January will feature a dominant Atlantic High. Temperatures near average, dry. 

February will feature a Euro High and +AO. Mild but fairly dry away from Scotland. 

March will feature a Euro High that increasingly bends to the east so fairly dry and near average but likely a month of two halves. 

Coldest periods of the winter look like November and January with mid-Dec to late Jan/early Feb being winter so a bit like a poor man’s version of 2021 in that sense. Also to annoy people there’s a potentially easterly/northerly signal for mid-March to late April/early May. 
 

Most westerly signals of the winter are early December and early March so strongest zonality here. February has a horribly mild signal but despite the lack of a declared event, it has a classic Nina signal with a strong -PNA ridge roasting New York and a Euro High signal here close by. 

 

 

 

 

[Dark Horse]

 Don  The charts were insanely good. This forum went nuts.

 

 

[Anti-Mild]

Evening everyone! I've been absent from the forum for a while, but just like Michael Bublé it's time to come out of hibernation ready for Winter.

Now there's every chance I missed some kind of announcement, but where is the Netweather Winter Forecast? Are we getting one?

Edited December 1, 2024 by Anti-Mild
Grammar

[Metwatch]

Some of my winter thoughts / forecast:

Temperatures most likely to be slightly milder than average, mean winter CET of 5.0C - 5.5C (1991-20 average = 4.8C).

Precipitation most likely to be near average to slightly drier than average. EWP of 200-250mm (average = ~275mm).

Most likely we will see the coldest spells in the second half of December, then again the second half of January.

I will say there won't be an SSW this winter, so an early spring is maybe on the cards; something like 2020 / 2022.

Let's see how this goes!

Edited December 1, 2024 by Metwatch

[cheeky_monkey]

Cansips monthly update released yesterday is going for a dry anticyclonic winter with average temps and drier than normal for the UK..here it keeps the theme of cold backloaded winter with Jan, Feb & Mar looking very cold 

[Paul]

Just issued - written by @Nick F, and another really great, in depth read. 

Long Range Weather Forecast | Winter 2024/2025 | Netweather.tv

WWW.NETWEATHER.TV

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UK Winter Forecast 2024/25: Cold winters are becoming increasingly rare in Britain - will this year buck the trend?

Thanks Nick!

[Daniel*]

My winter forecast, check it out  

 

Just a moment...

WWW.PATREON.COM

 

[cheshire snow]

 Daniel* nicely presented.

[Bullseye]

Unable to reply to my original post so had to link this. Following on from my post, November 2024 sea pressure mean and how this compares to GLOSEA & ECM runs from October for 1-month (November 2024).