Storms and Convective discussion - October 2024 onwards

[Danunosus]

 hailcore Oh, wow. This is really cool! Thanks for informing me.  I have Cubase, so I'll have to try this out at some point!

Edited October 6 by Danunosus

[Southern Storm]

Woke up to some really heavy rain this morning, and was treated to one solitary rumble of thunder just after 7am, nothing showed up on lighting maps, but I'm pretty sure it came from the cell just off the coast near Christchurch 

Great way to start the day, hopefully more to come over the next 24 hrs or so 

[Alderc 2.0]

3 or 4 torrential showers first thing this morning. Some of the heaviest rain this year. I was quite surprised there was no thunder. 

[CoventryWeather]

 Southern Storm there were a couple of strikes on blitzortung but quickly disappeared. 

[StormLoser]

 Danunosus Nice one, and great reaction!  We had a storm over Reigate a few weeks ago at 3:30 am. Pretty much every strike was positive and the thunder so loud it was - as you say - a chest rattler. Phenomenal storm.

[Mapantz]

Huge downpour here!

[Mark Parsons]

Weather warning for thunderstorms this evening.

[Eagle Eye]

Convective Outlook️ 

Heavy showers will develop across Ireland & England today bringing the risk of the odd few lightning strikes before a occluded front pushes into S/SW Eng bringing the risk of more activity.

 

SLGHT risk was held of due to uncertainty of saturation. 

[Harry's House]

I did not see any lightning or hear any thunder yesterday and there were no strikes nearby on lightning maps, but at about  8pm, there was some fairly heavy rain and there was a loss of signal on our TV for a few seconds. The last time we had a loss of TV signal during was during a thunderstorm. Did anyone else notice anything?

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Is tonight’s chance of activity good enough for me to spend the evening back at home in Salisbury or hang about in west London at my brother’s house?

 

Edited October 7 by Flash bang flash bang etc

[Snowspout]

Seeing a few towers going up. Couple of TCU, maybe the odd CB but the line is always blurred trying to distinguish them just by observation. 

[LeveLUP]

right on the cusp of the warning and AOI here. I doubt anything will happen round my way this time...

[Danunosus]

 hailcore Do you have any pics? The best way to distinguish them is by seeing whether the tops have softened or whether they still have a cauliflower-like appearance to them. 

I was surprised to see no discernible incus (anvil) on that shower near Reading while looking at SAT24, as it looked pretty intense. My gut would still be to go with Cb (Cb calvus), but I'd need to see pics or see it it in person to discern if it was a Cb or not.

[biddie]

 Danunosus never heard anything like it it my life. I don't understand how it can do that. Danunosus

[Snowspout]

 Danunosus Did not get a picture as I was in school. I could see a rain shaft though. Heard many sources say that TCU's do produce showers, and some that say they don't. Other clouds that are ambiguous as to whether they produce precipitation include Stratocumulus, Altostratus and Stratus.

[Thunderspotter]

Severe Convective Weather & Storms Forecast - Netweather.tv

WWW.NETWEATHER.TV

---

Track UK thunderstorms, heavy rain & hail with detailed maps and expert analysis. Stay ahead of the storms.

Storm forecast from Nick!

[Mitch the motorbike storm]

I’m currently in Belgium de Haan can anyone tell me if there is any risks here Thankyou 

[CoventryWeather]

 Thunderspotter can't say I see much of a risk tonight, lots of moisture in the low to mid levels. Suggests to me there will be very heavy rain, with sporadic flashes in anything more intense. The steep lapse rates seem to increase risk of small hail. 

Tomorrow looks far better, a drier mid layer and steep lapse rates. Cape much more favourable too, just losing the deep layer shear which means tomorrow looks more pulse type. Instability is greater too so expect some decent cloudscapes. Sure @Eagle Eye will have his outlook later for tomorrow anyways! 

[Metwatch]

Interesting discussion about positive lightning strikes yesterday! To the best of my knowledge I haven't experienced one but given they are quite rare, and thunderstorms themselves are rare-ish here particularly stronger ones, not too surprising I haven't seen one yet. That video you posted @hailcore is nuts, I remember discovering it last year and sending it in here I think.

The CG landing down the road from me in mid September 2023 I believe was a powerful negative strike, and the dual CG strikes I caught in May 2023 were both negative but the farther one which striked multilple times repeatedly was a more powerful one. My post on the one I caught in May:

Edited October 7 by Metwatch

[Danunosus]

 hailcore All of these clouds can produce precipitation, though the most ambiguous is Altostratus, as it can be argued that a precipitating Altostratus is a Nimbostratus (though I would say that Altostratus could produce light precipitation, with any moderate precipitation indicating that the cloud is Nimbostratus). Any precipitation from Stratocumulus, Stratus and Altostratus is going to be light in nature (though I did experience fairly heavy precipitation from a Stratocumulus cumulogenitus cloud once, but this was because it started life as a Cumulus congestus cloud, spreading into Stratocumulus at its top due to hitting an inversion). Speaking of which, Cumulus congestus (towering Cumulus) can definitely produce showers, sometimes fairly lively, though when you see white and purple cores on radar, the clouds are probably Cumulonimbus.

Edited October 7 by Danunosus

[Snowspout]

 Danunosus Oh I see why there is confusion now. Also this is probably a dumb question but what do people mean when they talk about saturated vertical profiles inhibiting electrical activity? I tried searching this up but couldn't find anything.

[Southern Storm]

I'm starting to think that there could be some decent storms tonight, promising start to the evening 

[Danunosus]

 Metwatch Wow!!! This is mental, yo! Yeah, defos sounds negative, but what a gorgeous strike. Really close by, too! 

Edited October 7 by Danunosus

[Danunosus]

 hailcore Definitely not a stupid question! This just means that there is a lot of moisture present in the mid- to upper-levels of the troposphere. I'm not sure exactly how it inhibits lightning production, but I know that it does. Conversely, if the profiles are too dry, lightning can also be inhibited, from what I can tell! 

[Thunders]

 Southern Storm we can do our best to hope, if those storms can last, and thats a big if, it could aid in producing some more farther west and east of themselves. that's just me hoping but you never know