Storms and Convective discussion - October 2024 onwards

[Snowspout]

 Danunosus I would imagine it's something to do with how the instability is weakened it's just as saturated high up as it is below. But in microphysical terms, possibly the water droplets in the cloud condense more easily in humid environments which releases latent heat and delays their transition into ice crystals.

[Mapantz]

I can't see much happening here, apart from some more rain.

[Southern Storm]

 Thunders Yeah, at best I would expect the od lighting flash every minute or so in the strongest cells. 

I'm changing the camera just in case something does show up

 

Edited October 7 by Southern Storm
Technology not technologying

[Mark Parsons]

The dynamics are there, not sure this will produce anything more than downpours, maybe the second wave will be productive? 

[Danunosus]

Impressive instability on AROME for tomorrow afternoon where I live (West Berkshire)! Just hope those saturated profiles don't mess things up...

 

Meteociel - Prévisions radio-sondages AROME

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

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meteociel propose des rubriques météo temps réel, forums, modeles...

 

Edited October 7 by Danunosus

[Thunders]

 Danunosus even suggesting a marginal severe!

[Danunosus]

 Thunders Potentially some high and very cold (-50°C) cloud tops tomorrow, too. Not bad for this time of year!

[Mapantz]

 Mark Parsons

I'd go as far to say that lightning looks more likely outside of the Met Office' warning zone.

The radar is very underwhelming.

[CoventryWeather]

 Mapantz warning has been expanded eastwards and northwards. 

I'm a bit surprised to be fair. Still not expecting much in the way of lightning activity. 

[Fiona Robertson]

Any hurricane peeps on here that can explain what the heck is go in on with Hurricane Milton? Supposed to reach Cat 3 some time tonight, it hit Cat 5 this afternoon. Sustained winds now 175 mph, central pressure 911 mb.

Edited October 7 by Fiona Robertson

[Thunders]

 Fiona Robertson im chatting to some people on discord and theirs like not a stopping factor rn, so a potential for it to keep strengthening 

 

[CoventryWeather]

Decently active cell south of IOW.

Might see something @ChannelThunder

Edited October 7 by CoventryWeather

[Snowspout]

Small squall +TSRA imminent for Jersey, not on island though.

Watch live: 

 

Edited October 7 by hailcore

[Southern Storm]

 CoventryWeather just popped out to see if it was clear as there's a major geomagnetic storm happening at the moment, but of course it's cloudy. On a positive note though, I did see a flash of lightning to the south of me

[Southern Storm]

 CoventryWeather I think he's away on his honeymoon, hopefully he's getting plenty of action where he's gone, somewhere in the Far east I think. I'm sure he is getting plenty of action, it is his honeymoon after all

 

[Cain]

Fingers crossed the showers nearing south wales can spark 

[Thunderspotter]

If that cell continues to expand west with that front of rain, I might be in with a chance here...

[CoventryWeather]

 Southern Storm ahh I didn't know that would be typical the time he's away his place gets one overhead. 

Seems to be tapping into some favourable shear which might explain the rather active cell. Some strikes in some weaker showers to the west (south of Bournemouth). 

Just about visible on this webcam in Portsmouth 

 

Edited October 7 by CoventryWeather

[Sprites]

 CoventryWeather Was just seeing that here. 

 

 

[Cain]

Never mind all dying off just be heavy showers by looks 

[Southern Storm]

Well, I decided to take a little trip down to the local beach and the cell that was over towards the Isle of Wight has stopped producing lightning.

I managed to get one photograph of some intra cloud and that's it

I think I will head back home but keep an eye out on the radar just in case something else develops 

[Sprites]

 Cain Probably be more lightning off and on, short lived single cell type.

[Cain]

 Sprites we’ll always the possibility getting more storms in September/October than the whole of summer 

[Thunders]

idk if ill get anything, worth watchign still ig

[Thunderspotter]

well that didn't last very long...