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Predictions for 2025


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Posted
  • Location: Perth, Scotland
  • Location: Perth, Scotland

How I am guessing 2025 will pan out 

January 2025: A cold and often snowy month in the north with some very cold temperatures. Mild and very wet in the south, dull in virtually all areas although sunny in north west Scotland. 
Highest temperature: 16th January  16.7.C (Gravesend) Lowest temperature: 25th January -24.2.C (Aviemore)

February 2025: Often a dry and sunny month with some very mild days but often frosty nights. Brief snowy spell in the south between the 15th-20th. Often very dry many areas record less than 30% of average rainfall with only the far north of Scotland being wet, sunshine is widely 130% of average as well, only the far north being dull. Highest temperature: 25th February 18.6.C (Kew Gardens) Lowest temperature: 7th February  -8.3.C (Braemar)

March 2025: An unsettled and often mild first three weeks before a very sunny but cold final week. The month is generally very showery but often mild with some very mild nights with very little frost. However there is no spring like warmth. From the 22nd it turns much colder under a north easterly however it also brings high pressure which makes it sunny away from eastern coasts. Some eastern coasts have their snowiest weather of the winter on the 27th. There’s some very cold nights during this spell with some areas recording their coldest night of the winter during this spell. Highest temperature: 8th March 16.0.C (Portsmouth) Lowest temperature: 29th March -11.7.C (Dalwhinnie) and 31st (Banchory)

April 2025: Generally a settled and sunny month although often wet in western and northern Scotland. First 20.C is reached on the 9th of April in London with a high of 21.7.C. Colder and more unsettled  between the 14th-23rd with some wintry showers and frosty nights although the last week turns much warmer. Highest temperature: 28th April 23.5.C (Colchester) Lowest temperature: 16th April -5.8.C (Loch Glascarnoch)

May 2025: Often an easterly month so often cool and very dull in eastern areas but much sunnier and warmer further west. Overall among the dullest May’s in the east but among the sunniest in the west. Dry virtually everywhere though however. Very cool between the 4th-9th with maxima widely below 8.C east of London. Another relatively quiet month although severe thunderstorms break out during a warm spell in the west during the 22nd-26th. First 25.C is reached in Kinlochewe on the 23rd. Highest temperature: 26th May 28.2.C (Bristol and Cardiff) Lowest temperature: 6th May -1.5.C (Auchterarder)

June 2025: Often warm but very wet in places particularly in the south west with 200% widely here among the wettest on record. Further north and east generally drier, very sunny in the north with slightly below average sunshine in the west. There are two very warm spell during the 3rd-9th before turning more unsettled for a while a before the next settled, warm spell from the 23rd-28th. The latter brings a very warm day to Scotland with the highest temperatures here on the 27th some local records are also broken before a thundery breakdown. Highest temperature: 27th June 30.6.C (Stirling) Lowest temperatue : 10th June 1.8.C (Pitlochry)

July 2025: A dry and sunny month with average temperatures. A very quiet month with very little to note, no extreme heat, no thunderstorms only a couple of warmer spells. Highest temperature: 18th July 28.5.C (Manchester) Lowest temperature: 2.8.C 6th July (Braemar) 

August 2025: Hot, dry and sunny across the whole UK. Very much like August 1995. Maxima temperatures well above average by as much as 4-6.C across many areas. Very little rain until the final few days. Record breaking sunny with over 250 hours widely recorded even across the north and around 300 hours recorded at several south coastal sites. Highest temperature: 17th August 37.4.C (Oxford) Lowest temperature: 31st August 1.8.C (Altnaharra)

September 2025: A very wet and often cool month. Among the wettest September’s on record. Complete flip after August 2025. Many areas are sunless between the 6th-14th with only the far north recording above average sunshine. Cold end with some frost, very little warmth all month. Highest temperature: 3rd September 27.4.C (Nottingham) Lowest temperature: 29th September -1.6.C (Altnaharra) 

October 2025: A cool first and last week with a very mild two week spell in the middle. Generally a settled month although wet in north and western areas, sunshine below average in the west but a very sunny month in the east. A very warm spell hits eastern Scotland due to a foehn wind between the 16th-22nd and this brings some record late warmth here before turning much cooler after. Highest temperature: 20th  25.5.C (Aberdeen and Perth) Lowest temperature: 27th -3.8.C (Tummel Bridge)

November 2025: A mostly cool, cloudy and dry month. Snowy final week with some notably low temperatures. A very mild spell hits highland Scotland once again during the 10th-14th bringing some very high temperatures under a foehn wind. Highest temperature: 20.2.C 13th November (KINLOCHEWE) Lowest temperature: 26th November  -12.8.C (Kinbrace and Braemar)

December 2025: Extremely mild, wet, windy and dull. Almost like 2015 but just failing to beat it. Very stromy first half with some notably damaging winds and gales. A lot of destruction and flooding. Brief colder snap between the 18th-22nd before turning much milder and stormier for Christmas. Many areas record average maxima temperatures above 10.C and there is very little snow, ice or frost. Many areas recorded absolutely none. Highest temperature: 17.2.C 11th December (London) Lowest temperature: 20th December -3.6.C (Alston)

Overall I think 2025 will be another unsettled year but it will be a lot more seasonally warm in summer. A tendency for Scotland to have a lot of warm and sunny days as well as some very wintry weather. Storm damage in December likely. However a year with a very reasonable summer

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Posted
  • Location: Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: BWh
  • Location: Cheshire

It's worth keeping an eye on the current cooling trend for North Atlantic SSTs. If it continues, we could see a verification of Oltmanns' theorem and potentially see a repeat of 2018 next summer. Obviously it's too far out to say, but Oltmanns has demonstrated that you can identify probabilities several months in advance, and that we're due a 2018/2022 repeat within the next four years. 

 And although the link between ENSO states and summers in NW Europe is contentious at best, there's a strong correlation with warmer drier summers and La Niña states.

Edited by raz.org.rain
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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
32 minutes ago, raz.org.rain said:

It's worth keeping an eye on the current cooling trend for North Atlantic SSTs. If it continues, we could see a verification of Oltmanns' theorem and potentially see a repeat of 2018 next summer. Obviously it's too far out to say, but Oltmanns has demonstrated that you can identify probabilities several months in advance, and that we're due a 2018/2022 repeat within the next four years. 

I had noticed that this was occurring whilst the tropical Atlantic was still warming. and hence this cooling had been hidden.

No idea what Oltmann's  theory is..

MIA

Edited by Midlands Ice Age
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Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft

 LetItSnow

Jan,Feb March April way below CET  average 

May June, July August CET way above average 

Sept,Oct, Nov & Dec way below CET average.

 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: BWh
  • Location: Cheshire

 Midlands Ice Age I call it Oltmanns' theorem but it's been studied by other teams too, Oltmanns et al. is just the latest to do so (released earlier this year). The PDF paper is here but there's also a few good articles that discuss it such as this one. Schenk et al. called it the cold-ocean-warm-summer feedback which is more apt.

Basically the theory states that when the North Atlantic is unusually cold, the climatic response is atmospheric blocking across Europe and a more northerly jet stream. This results in much hotter and drier conditions in western and northern Europe specifically. This same effect is what resulted in the conditions of summer 2018 as was discussed by Bischof et al..

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Posted
  • Location: Islington, C. London.
  • Location: Islington, C. London.

As stated before but I think the fact that it would have been 3 years since our last hot summer and the fact that the summers of 2023 and 2024 were changeable, I think the likelihood of summer 2025 being hot and dry are higher. I have a gut feeling it'll pull a 2003 and we'll have a very dry but seasonable and sunny year after years of dross (apart November 2021-October 2022).

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Posted
  • Location: Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Warm-by-day sunny thundery summers , short cold snowy winters.
  • Location: Hampshire
17 hours ago, Harry233 said:

Overall I think 2025 will be another unsettled year but it will be a lot more seasonally warm in summer. A tendency for Scotland to have a lot of warm and sunny days as well as some very wintry weather. Storm damage in December likely. However a year with a very reasonable summer

Looks like most of the April to November period is fairly decent, except September. That would certainly be a big improvement on this year and most of last!

Edited by Summer8906
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Posted
  • Location: Kent, unfortunately
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters, warm, early spring, cool, gentle summer, stormy autumn
  • Location: Kent, unfortunately

Looking back into the past, it does appear that the onset of a new ENSO phase does seem to have a habit of breaking the current spell. The 2020-2023 La Nina broke the wetter spell of 2019-late 2020 (albeit that period did have dry spells), the 2018/19 El Nino broke the spell of dry conditions from mid-2016 to late 2018, the 2016/17 cold neutral broke the late 2013-early 2016 wet spell, the 2010/11 La Nina broke the wet spell of mid-2007 to late 2009, the 06/07 Nina broke the drier spell that'd been ongoing since 2003 (although 2004 was a bit of a break in the wetter conditions), and the 1998 Nina broke the very dry spell of the 90s.

As a minor La Nina does seem to be coming, this could mean we see an end to this wet spell and the start of a drier late 2020s. How long this wet spell has lasted depends on if you count 2021-September 2022 a dry spell or merely an interruption in a longer 2019-present wet spell. If you use that definition then we're right at the expected lifespan of long wet spells like the late 90s-early 00s (1999 and 2001 both had breaks in the wetter conditions IIRC) and we should be expecting a change now. If you consider 2021-September 2022 it's own dry spell and for the current wet spell to have started in late 2022, then we could still have another 2-3 wetter years ahead before around 2027 or 2028 sees the start of a drier spell.

Going back to other record hot summers, after 1976 it took until 1983 to have another dry year and until the very late 80s for another long dry spell. After 1911 it took a good few years to start recording drier and more settled years again. 1912 was infamously wet and 1913 was unsettled too. I don't know how 1914 or 1915 went but I do know it took until the late 1910s to start seeing warm summers again. After 1990 it stayed very dry but was a lot cooler. After 1995 there were two more dry years until 1998 did it's thing. After 2003, 2004 was wetter again but 2005 and 2006 returned to the dryness and notable warmth, and then after 2006 it turned much wetter and cooler, and it took until 2009 to see a settled spell in summer again and 2010 to see a dry year overall (and 2011 to see a notably dry year again).

Going by those examples and assuming 2022 is an analogue, there is a chance 2025 could break the spell and see much more settled conditions for a considerable amount of the year, but I also wouldn't be that surprised by 2025 being a wet year again, although maybe not as wet as the last two with a drier spell over spring perhaps as we've had two consecutive wet springs now. I wouldn't particularly expect a dry year overall until 2027 or so, although next year or 2026 could easily be average or dry, I just don't particularly expect them to be.

I hate to bang on about climate change again, but it must be noted that wetter than average is the new normal. We expect years to be wetter than the 1991-2020 baseline now, largely due to how wet the autumn and winters have tended to be in the last 10 years or so (and that trend doesn't seem to be going anywhere, and we wouldn't expect it to). I'd estimate anywhere between 115-120% of that average should be considered right around the new average (which still makes 2023 and 2024 wetter than average). 100% of 1991-2020 is the new dry, and anything below 90% or so is notably dry. If 2025 were to end right around 100% 1991-2020, then it was probably overall a dry year that had some thundery activity in the summer and a few unsettled spells in the autumn.

To conclude, I have absolutely no idea how 2025 will go. I wouldn't even want to make any guesses beyond what I've already outlined.

17 hours ago, Harry233 said:

16.7.C (Gravesend)

Gravesend (Broadness) ceased operation in August 2018 (R.I.P.).

17 hours ago, Harry233 said:

(Colchester)

Nearest stations are Cavendish, Wattisham and East Bergholt, all in Suffolk. I'd say Cavendish is the most comparable although Colchester is a bit closer to the sea, so maybe Wattisham.

17 hours ago, Harry233 said:

(Bristol

Nearest station is Almondsbury, Gloucestershire.

17 hours ago, Harry233 said:

(Portsmouth)

Nearest station is Gosport (Fleetlands), although Gosport is within the Portsmouth urban area.

17 hours ago, Harry233 said:

(Manchester)

Nearest station is Rostherne, Cheshire.

17 hours ago, Harry233 said:

(Alston)

Nearest comparable station is probably Shap.

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Posted
  • Location: Kent, unfortunately
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters, warm, early spring, cool, gentle summer, stormy autumn
  • Location: Kent, unfortunately
11 hours ago, LetItSnow said:

I think the likelihood of summer 2025 being hot and dry are higher

Mathematically speaking, the likelihood remains the same all the time. Just because we feel like it's been too long since a hot and dry summer, doesn't mean it's any more or less likely to occur next time. This is the Gambler's Fallacy. The statistical chance remains constant. If there is, say, a 20% chance of a hot and dry summer in any given year, then the chance is always going to be 20%. Of course, at some point we're probably going to roll on hot and dry because it's a relatively high chance event, but the number of times we don't roll hot and dry has no bearing on the actual likelihood. Does this make sense?

Of course, I must add the caveat that the chance of a hot and dry summer as defined by British standards is increasing due to climate change, however the chance for a summer in the 80th percentile of possibilities is constant. Just that said summer is getting a bit hotter with each passing year. If climatic warming continues unabated then eventually all summers in the 50th percentile will be hot and dry by our standards, then the 25th, then the 10th, and so on.

Edited by CryoraptorA303
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Posted
  • Location: Delph, historic West Riding of Yorkshire, 225m asl
  • Weather Preferences: All 4 seasons and a good mixture of everything and anything!
  • Location: Delph, historic West Riding of Yorkshire, 225m asl
1 hour ago, CryoraptorA303 said:

Mathematically speaking, the likelihood remains the same all the time. Just because we feel like it's been too long since a hot and dry summer, doesn't mean it's any more or less likely to occur next time. This is the Gambler's Fallacy. The statistical chance remains constant. If there is, say, a 20% chance of a hot and dry summer in any given year, then the chance is always going to be 20%. Of course, at some point we're probably going to roll on hot and dry because it's a relatively high chance event, but the number of times we don't roll hot and dry has no bearing on the actual likelihood. Does this make sense?

It makes sense to me. It's similar to when people say "we're due this" or "we're due a hot Summer" etc.. because it's been so long since the last one.

It's not as though the weather has a memory - it'll do what it wants to do, no matter how long ago the last instance was. 

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Posted
  • Location: Kent, unfortunately
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters, warm, early spring, cool, gentle summer, stormy autumn
  • Location: Kent, unfortunately

 StretfordEnd1996 Precisely. If anything it seems a bit cyclical - From 2018 to 2022 we couldn't seem to stop having big heatwaves. Before 2018, 2013 was the last big one, and before that it was 2006, and between 2003-early 2007 we couldn't seem to stop having record warmth at least at some point in the year.

So perhaps this means we're in a bit of a more unsettled phase and we won't have any major heat anomalies for a few years now, and the next hot summer will be sometime in the very late 2020s or early 2030s, and then around the mid-2030s or so we won't be able to drop the record anomalies and we'll keep getting big heatwaves year after year, before in the late 2030s or very early 2040s we get a year more like 2023 or 2007 and then the cycle repeats itself.

Funnily enough, all the hottest springs and highest spring temps seem to happen in the downtime where we can't get anything other than an unsettled and mild summer: 1920s, mid-1940s and early 1950s, 1960s, late 00s-early 10s and 2017. Spring 2024 was one of the warmest on record and May was the mildest, while summer was proportionally much milder, so perhaps the mid to late 20s will be the era of record hot springs where we finally demolish all the old spring records while getting a string of really unmemorable summers.

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Posted
  • Location: Leighton Buzzard, Central Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Just take whatever is offered.
  • Location: Leighton Buzzard, Central Bedfordshire

 CryoraptorA303 reckon 2014 and 2021 could match next year very closely in analogue matches.    

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds

 CryoraptorA303 We reached 33C here in July 2015 which at the time was our hottest temperature since August 1990, so we did have some potent hot spells (we have exceeded 33C on multiple occasions since then though).

Edited by cheese
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

With an enormous dose of good luck, the upcoming winter will contain some really cold weather rather than the usual inversion crap. But with the continued loss of Arctic sea ice, a BFTE seems the only option, if one wants to see snowfalls at low levels and around coasts? 🤔

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Posted
  • Location: Leighton Buzzard, Central Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Just take whatever is offered.
  • Location: Leighton Buzzard, Central Bedfordshire

2018 could be another close match to next year as well.   

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Posted
  • Location: Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Warm-by-day sunny thundery summers , short cold snowy winters.
  • Location: Hampshire

 Addicks Fan 1981 A varied set of years - there seems to be little similarity between 2014, 2018 and 2021 for individual months so I'm wondering what kind of year that would produce? A wet January, an unsettled and possibly cool August, and perhaps a dry and warm September, are common factors.

Edited by Summer8906
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Posted
  • Location: Kent, unfortunately
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters, warm, early spring, cool, gentle summer, stormy autumn
  • Location: Kent, unfortunately

 cheese That was one single day in an otherwise very mild and unsettled summer. 2011 was similar in having a brief heat spike earlier in summer before very mild conditions took over. 2017 had the June heatwave but aside from that and the brief early July heatwave it was the only unsettled and mild period of the year.

Going back in time, 1961 was similar to this, having a random heat spike on July 1st in an otherwise mild summer. The 60s certainly had much more impressive springs than summers.

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Posted
  • Location: Kent, unfortunately
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters, warm, early spring, cool, gentle summer, stormy autumn
  • Location: Kent, unfortunately
2 hours ago, Addicks Fan 1981 said:

reckon 2014 and 2021 could match next year very closely in analogue matches.    

 

1 hour ago, Addicks Fan 1981 said:

2018 could be another close match to next year as well

The truth is we have no idea what 2025 will resemble until it's actually happening. There are a billion different scenarios at this point.

I will take the fairly safe bet that next spring will be the "best" one since 2020. I would say warmest but last spring was more exceptionally mild than what you'd call "warm". I think something similar to 2009 or 2017 is quite likely springwise.

I don't see it being particularly similar to any of those three to be honest, barring 2014 to some extent. This year has been nothing like 2013, 2017 or 2020 imo.

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Posted
  • Location: Port Talbot South Wales
  • Location: Port Talbot South Wales

Hi everyone,  what's everyone's thoughts on this upcoming winter? Mild ? Cold?  I'm going to say very cold winter to come here in the UK 👀👀❄️❄️❄️

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Posted
  • Location: Kent, unfortunately
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters, warm, early spring, cool, gentle summer, stormy autumn
  • Location: Kent, unfortunately

 Andrew Davies I think the coldest in a while, nothing mind-blowing though. The stars would have to align for a very cold winter in historic terms at this point.

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Posted
  • Location: Port Talbot South Wales
  • Location: Port Talbot South Wales

Hi everyone,  does anyone think that this winter in the UK will be similar to 1963, (the daddy of all winters) 🤔🤔

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