Predictions for 2025

[matt brid]

 Andrew Davies Think wet wet wet and you won't go wrong lol 

[Andrew Davies]

David King weather guru Web site.  Predicts similarities to 1963 ,big statement I know , does nature and wildlife weather predictions 180 days out.  Been on gmtv couple times , his forecasting over the years been pretty accurate in fairness 

https://www.indigenousukweather.com/

[Plume Meets BFTE]

I'll go for something like this:

January.  Stormy, similar to 2014.

February.  A boring month but slightly wetter than average.  Similar to this year.

March.  Cloudy and damp, but with a couple of late season snowfalls.  Like 2023.

April.  Quite a good month, with a short very warm spell.  Like 2017.

May.  Warm, but unsettled and easterly.  Like this year but slightly cooler.

June.  Warm, easterly 1st half then cold and wet.  Like 2007.  

July.  A warm month with short unsettled spells, like 1997.

August.  Makes up for a wet year so far.  Will be similar to 1995 but with the inclusion of an August 2020 heatwave.  

September.  Will start with a September 2023 style heatwave, but cool down to a September 2014, so warm and dry.

October.  Wet and stormy, like 2000.

November.  Wet again with a southerly jet, like 2009.

December.  Wet but sunny, like 2012.

[Cloud2]

 Andrew Davies Some random website predicts a 1962/3 style winter every year and every year they are wrong. You have to remember that 1962/3 was the coldest winter since 1739/40 so a winter of that severity has only occurred once in Britain in the past 280 odd years. With the warmer climate nowadays I think a 1962/3 winter is most likely impossible although a winter similar to 1978/9 or 2009/10 is bound to happen sooner or later.

[StretfordEnd1996]

13 minutes ago, Cloud2 said:

although a winter similar to 1978/9 or 2009/10 is bound to happen sooner or later.

Says who though  

I think we may have a drier period next year from like Feb to June in general. Turning wet into Autumn.

Edited October 10, 2024 by StretfordEnd1996

[Andrew Davies]

Home | IndigenousUKWeather

WWW.INDIGENOUSUKWEATHER.COM

does nature forecasting been on gmtv couple times name David King 

 

[raz.org.rain]

 Cloud2 best one I saw recently was some website with a forecast predicting that winter 24/25 would be very cold and snowy. It was a website that sold fire logs.

[Andrew Davies]

Here's one to think about.... we can get snow at any given year, check the data on every 14 year cycle... this winter and back was 2010..1996 .1982..1968 etc  extreme winters if you believe in cycles.  Think we well overdue a very cold winter , this winter could be the one 

[CryoraptorA303]

 Andrew Davies 1996/97, 1982/83 and 1968/69 weren't particularly cold if at all for their respective periods.

The chance of a 1962/63 style winter in any given year even pre-climate change is negligible. Nowdays it's even less likely. I'd estimate such a winter has about a 1/500 chance of occurring now. By 2050 that'll be down to every few thousanth winter or so.

Edited October 10, 2024 by CryoraptorA303

[Cloud2]

 Andrew Davies We're been due a cold summer far longer than a cold winter yet we haven't had it and we probably never will.

[Andrew Davies]

[Methuselah]

 CryoraptorA303

And the fact that we had lying snow in both February and March 1969 (and a polar low) shows just how much our climate has warmed during the intervening years. 

[Andrew Davies]

 Cloud2 we just had a cooler than average summer,  all winters been milder or just average in last 10 years 

[raz.org.rain]

 Andrew Davies summer 2024 was only cooler relative to the recent averages. If it had occurred during the 1960s, it shockingly would have been the warmest summer of the decade.

[Cloud2]

 raz.org.rain What I would consider even more shocking is that 2011 which is the coldest UK summer of the past 30 years would still be warmer than 7 summers of the 1960s.

[Weather-history]

Remember posting this many moons ago about years ending in "5" Not to be taken as too serious.......

 

[Summer8906]

On 10/10/2024 at 20:28, CryoraptorA303 said:

I will take the fairly safe bet that next spring will be the "best" one since 2020.

Given spring 2022 was fairly decent on the whole, that presumably suggests a notably good one.

[Addicks Fan 1981]

 Andrew Davies in his head he reckons along with weather action that the AMOC will collapse, but we are in a very warm year currently so what he says doesn't add up at all.    

[raz.org.rain]

On 10/10/2024 at 20:28, CryoraptorA303 said:

will take the fairly safe bet that next spring will be the "best" one since 2020. I would say warmest but last spring was more exceptionally mild than what you'd call "warm". I think something similar to 2009 or 2017 is quite likely springwise.

Perhaps we'll see the ever so shy great spring and great summer combo

[Addicks Fan 1981]

 Andrew Davies how comes you think dave king, james madden and piers corbyn are correct?  All three of them think a new mini ice age is coming, take it you dont believe in AGW.   

[raz.org.rain]

 Addicks Fan 1981 how anyone can seriously believe that a mini ice age is coming is beyond me.

[Addicks Fan 1981]

 raz.org.rain they think obviously the gulf stream is collapsing.  Mind you there seems to be loads of conspiracy theories on X and misinformation.  I always believe the UKMO even when they have mishaps.   

[raz.org.rain]

 Addicks Fan 1981 ah, that old nonsense. Despite the fact that the original publications explicitly clarify model biases and preindustrial assumptions, and that cross analysis of various other papers demonstrates that a cooling response is basically not possible. I grow more and more convinced that the severe cooling hypothesis is purposely being misrepresented as a means of deconstructing public faith in the validity of climate change, and you see the effects of this whenever the subject of climate change comes up. It's inevitable that someone will say "but Gulf Stream collapse" as some kind of contrarian gotcha. I've researched the subject somewhat extensively for the past few years and I'm really tempted to publish it at some point. 

[CryoraptorA303]

 Andrew Davies 2017/18 and 2020/21 were both below average (by 1991-2020 of course) if I'm not mistaken.

It's just that what constitutes a cold winter these days was very typical or even mild by the standards of 50 years ago.

 Weather-history Fascinating. 2005 just about managed to enter this list as it saw the hottest May day since 1953, unusally intense heat in June (although no records to my knowledge), and an unusually warm late October-early November period with the warmest November night on record.

One thing I noticed was a profound lack of wet extremes. The extremes were either hot, cold or dry. If this is somehow to be taken seriously, then it seems likely that 2025 could see some sort of extreme related to this. Hottest August on record to commemorate the 30th anniversary of summer 1995? I think extremes in spring are a lot more likely next year but of course, nothing can be ruled out until it actually happens.

 Cloud2 And before anyone mentions that the 1960s were a cool decade, 2011, let alone 2024 would've been one of the warmer summers in almost every other decade before the 60s too. The only one that 2011 might not have been one of the warmer ones was the 1930s.

12 hours ago, Addicks Fan 1981 said:

gulf stream

AMOC, not the gulf stream. The latter is a physical phenomenon. If it were to suddenly stop, it'd be the least of our worries as it'd mean the Earth suddenly stopped rotating and every person and structure on the planet was just torn apart by extreme wind shear.

 raz.org.rain The truth is we have no idea what'd happen if AMOC collapsed, just that the climate would become significantly drier and it'd be bad. A reglaciation would be very unlikely though, considering when younger dryas occurred, the ice sheets were much more expansive than they are today to begin with.

[Methuselah]

 raz.org.rain

I very much suspect that that is true. But, IMO, another BFTE is certainly possible -- the amount of warming since 2018 is nowhere near enough to stop -16C Uppers from delivering snow.