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Posted
  • Location: Kent, unfortunately
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters, warm, early spring, cool, gentle summer, stormy autumn
  • Location: Kent, unfortunately
Posted

 Methuselah Hardly a "mini-ice age", is it? (not that the term has any meaning whatsoever).

  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

 CryoraptorA303

Indeed it doesn't. But that won't stop the usual suspects from 'predicting' Snowmageddon on Day Ten, throughout winter! 😁

  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: BWh
  • Location: Cheshire
Posted
6 hours ago, CryoraptorA303 said:

The truth is we have no idea what'd happen if AMOC collapsed, just that the climate would become significantly drier and it'd be bad. A reglaciation would be very unlikely though, considering when younger dryas occurred, the ice sheets were much more expansive than they are today to begin with.

Current carbon volumes almost explicitly forbid the notion of reglaciation, and the subsequent drying trend would also go against it as a possibility. Not only that, but carbon sink collapse would accelerate atmospheric carbon volumes and they're already rapidly approaching a hothouse analogue at ten times the rate of comparable abrupt icehouse terminations. Based on methane volumes alone, we're already 20 years into an ice age termination event.

 What really irks me is how it's only ever the ridiculous hypothetical "15°c drop" that gets discussed despite the arguably out of date foundation and linear assumptions. It contradicts all other known factors. There's a somewhat clear trajectory towards an imminent hothouse state if we continue at our current rates, we're already near analogous to the Mid-Pliocene Warm Period.

Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
Posted

 Methuselah

Indeed that is very much the case will continue to be so for some considerable time to come.

 

  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: Islington, C. London
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snow, cool and wet.
  • Location: Islington, C. London
Posted

LONG one, but I fed ChatGPT Trevor Harley's monthly summaries from 2018 through 2023 and asked it to build a forecast for each month of 2025 based on trends and probability. Entirely just for fun of course, but seeing as it did scarily well the other year, let's see what it has to say! I'll be adding my own interpretations onto it to make it more realistic.

 

**January 2025** is expected to be a mild but not particularly wet month. It begins with an exceptionally mild spell in the first half and notes an unusual temperature contrast between the very mild south and a colder north. Later in the month, cold air moves southward, bringing colder weather countrywide, although it is not expected to be particularly notable, with snowfall mostly restricted to northern areas. Overall, it’s anticipated to be wet in the west but dry elsewhere.

The month starts with a high-pressure system over Europe, leading to an exceptionally mild southerly flow, similar to January 1998. This pattern then shifts westward, with cold incursions frequently affecting Scotland but having less impact in the south. There may be alternating periods of polar maritime (PM) and tropical maritime (TM) air. By the end of the month, that high-pressure system retrogresses, allowing low-pressure systems to divebomb southwards. This could result in significant snowfall in the north, but more marginal conditions in the south. It might resemble parts of January 1984, 1998, and 2003, or even February 1989. There could also be sunny spells, depending on the extent of the south/southwesterly flow in the first half.

**February 2025** is predicted to be very mild, wet, and stormy, with some spring-like warmth. An exceptionally warm spell is expected in the first half, which should be quite dry, before the month breaks down into an extremely wet and stormy second half, with multiple named storms causing flooding and high winds.

Following a pattern similar to the previous month, another exceptionally mild airflow from the south/southwest in the first half. The high-pressure system remains relatively close to the UK, though not close enough to cause frost or fog, and is accompanied by exceptionally warm upper-level air masses—basically, a more intense version of February 1998. We record the earliest 20°C temperature. After that, the high-pressure system relaxes, allowing the Atlantic to bring in a barrage of storms, these severe enough to cause flooding despite the dry start. This, shockingly, results in the warmest February on record. Similar to a mix of February 2019 and 2020, with synoptic features reminiscent of December 2013.

**March 2025** is expected to be a much colder and drier month relative to February. It will likely start cold and gradually become milder, ending with temperatures in the upper teens or low twenties. It is predicted to be very dry, with only a few incursions of unsettled weather.

A cold spell early in the month, bringing some wintry weather, though mostly bright and frosty with wintry showers rather than deep cold. High pressure builds into the cold air, leading to notable frosts but pleasant days. The odd unsettled day as Atlantic lows brush over the top of the high, but high pressure reasserts itself, keeping the weather fine by day but cold at night. By the end of the month, the high pressure shifts to allow a warm flow from the south/south-east, pushing temperatures into the low 20s but with large day-night temperature swings.

**April 2025** continues the trend of warm, dry, and sunny conditions, notably dry with few unsettled spells. However, there may be some cold nights early on.

The high-pressure system from late March becomes more centrally located, incurring a slight north/northeasterly flow, keeping the days fine and warm but introducing some harsh frosts at night. Occasional unsettled spells as the high flattens and meandering troughs develop to the south/southwest. One of these troughs brings in another very warm south-easterly airflow, potentially triggering an early-season plume and thunderstorm event and temperatures into the mid 20s, though high pressure will never be far away.

**May 2025** is predicted to be a very changeable, "jack of all trades" month. The forecast suggests a thundery end, possibly associated with heat, but overall, it will be a rather average month.

After two very dry months, low pressure will finally brings unsettled weather at times, including some sharp northerlies and general changeable westerlies. Toward the end of the month, hot and unstable air results in a thundery outbreak, with temperatures reaching 30°C.

**June 2025** is expected to be a record-hot and mostly dry month, with thundery spells giving some regional variation. Two main heatwaves, one of which breaks the June record.

The hot end to May leads to a very hot and humid start to June, with temperatures in low-thirties, marking the hottest start to June in many years. A brief westerly interlude might brings less warm air before an intense heatwave occurs in the second half, breaking the all-time June high.

**July 2025** is predicted to be an extremely hot month, yet strangely unsettled. It will be a very humid and thundery month, with further records broken for both the hottest temperature and the hottest month on record.

Intense heat spawns low-pressure systems around or over the UK, resulting in a dynamic, Floridian-like atmosphere. Rather than large, clear anticyclones, we experience slack, very hot southerly airflows, occasionally interrupted by heat-induced lows, triggering widespread severe thunderstorms—some of the most intense ever seen in the UK. General spells of thundery rain might occur as well, and one of these heat pulses breaks the all-time temperature record, shocking everyone just three years after the first 40°C was recorded. July ends up as the "final boss" of hot summer months, making 1976 and 1995 seem mild in comparison.

**August 2025** looks to be another hot month, though less intense than July. The first half will be very hot before a breakdown to more changeable and cooler conditions in the second half. A wetter second half means the month won’t be overly dry.

It starts with the remnants of July's intense heat, this time with a more stable high-pressure system over the UK, bringing deep thickness and hot upper-air temperatures, translating to at least the mid-30s. This gradually weakesn, leading to a thundery breakdown, before a switch to much more unsettled weather in the second half, with frequent troughs bringing showery and changeable weather—sometimes very thundery.

**September 2025** is predicted to be fairly average with a changeable nature. The start will be pleasantly warm, with high pressure bringing temperatures back into the upper 20s. However, the second half will be more unsettled, with some cold snaps bringing an early taste of winter, which will be a shock after the intense summer.

The month starts with ridging from the south, pushing low pressure away and bringing a more anticyclonic pattern, with warmth rather than oppressive heat. A couple of thundery days occur, followed by frequent low-pressure systems in the second half, with wet and windy conditions, and northerly incursions bringing notably chilly weather at times.

**October 2025** is expected to be very wet and stormy, though mostly mild, especially in the south. It will be wet everywhere, with exceptionally heavy rain in the north. A colder end may bring early snowfall to some areas.

Low pressure dominates, as seen in late September, but in a warmer phase, with high pressure building to the south. This setup fuels torrential rain in the northwest while giving some warmer days in the south, with temperatures reaching the low 20s at times. In the final week, high pressure retrogresses, allowing a notably cold northerly flow to bring the potential for exceptionally early snowfall in places.

**November 2025** is expected to be a typical Atlantic-dominated month. After a quick turnaround from the cold end of October to a mild start to November, the weather will generally be wet and windy, with a notable gale in the second half, followed by an Arctic blast toward the month’s end.

Low pressure sinks southward as high pressure ridges in for the first couple of days, giving exceptionally cold nights in the south for the time of year, before a mild westerly or southwesterly flow takes over, bringing 2–3 weeks of typical November weather. Around the third week, a notable windstorm is expected, followed by a northerly spell with frost and snow, particularly in the north.

**December 2025** is predicted to be a changeable month with a bit of everything. It will start cold, with the risk of a severe snow event, before becoming milder later, with a high-pressure system bringing a dry Christmas period.

The month might begins with a retrogressed high, allowing low pressure to rise from the southwest, with rain turning to heavy snow, potentially becoming a significant event followed by severe frosts. This pattern repeats once or twice, with mild air gradually winning out, though taking several attempts to reach the north, resulting in a very cold and snowy first half there. The second half is generally mild and unsettled, with low pressure taking a more typical track, before heights build to the south near Christmas, perhaps leading to some exceptionally mild days just before the holiday. Then, high pressure extends further north during the Christmas period, bringing frost and fog to the south but leaving the north mild and damp.

The C.E.T. I would suggest for each month: 6.2 (+1.5) 8.1 (+3.2) 6.4 (-0.3) 10.0 (+1.0) 12.1 (+0.2) 18.8 (+4.1) 20.4 (+3.5) 18.4 (+1.9) 13.7 (-0.5) 11.1 (+0.2) 7.4 (-0.1) 4.8 (-0.3)

@Summer8906 I think the summer would be overkill even for summer lovers. What do you think compared to the first 2025?

June-July sounds like a @CryoraptorA303 fanfic. Summer 2025 would be the summer from hell and easily the hottest ever recorded. The second half of the year would be of interest at times however...

  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny thundery summers with temps in the 20s, short cold snowy winters.
  • Location: Hampshire
Posted (edited)

@LetItSnow sounds a bit unrealistic to be honest, more like a summer in northern Greece than northwest Europe, but I guess that's ChatGPT for you!

I'd be surprised to see the heat record broken in such a humid and unsettled month that is suggested for July, presumably the ground would not be dry enough to see really silly max temps.

I can see where it's "learnt" from recent years though, e.g. yet another mild February, yet another mild and wet October (will the run ever end?) and yet another cold end to November.

December is more interesting than most recent ones though.

I'd expect some easterly spells in the "jack of all trades" May.

In the meantime, I'll add the Oct, Nov and Dec to my original attempt (which was Jan-Sep only):

October 2025 - after a run of six consecutive wet Octobers, and five out of six dull and gloomy Octobers, finally a dry and sunny one. Rather mild to warm with 25C reached early in the month. Last 10 days wet and increasingly stormy but not enough to make the month wet as a whole so it finishes warm (more particularly by day maxima, nights are often cool), rather dry, and sunny.

November 2025 - following long spells of fine, warm weather earlier in the season, November is mostly wet and mild. There is however a coldish, foggy and dull spell around mid-month and the early days are slightly less wet in the south (just drizzly) due to a Bartlett high influencing things.

December 2025 -  a rare December with significant cold and dry weather, which predominates from around the 5th to the 22nd. In typical style though, it then breaks down and the end of the month is mild, wet and stormy, with yet another wet New Years' Eve. Nonetheless the month is average by CET and by mean max, slightly drier than average overall, and sunnier than average. The wet spell at the end is not as extreme (either by temp or rainfall) as the equivalent in 2022, and features one or two ridges rather than the end-of-2022 dullfest.

Edited by Summer8906
Posted
  • Location: Kent, unfortunately
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters, warm, early spring, cool, gentle summer, stormy autumn
  • Location: Kent, unfortunately
Posted

 LetItSnow So I take it you fed this GPT with meth, crack and a few shots of vodka for good measure?

That summer sounds horrifying. July is like a bizarre lovechild of 2006, 2019 and 2022 on ritalin.

Funnily enough, the winter and spring are actually quite close to what I broadly predicted.

Posted
  • Location: Kent, unfortunately
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters, warm, early spring, cool, gentle summer, stormy autumn
  • Location: Kent, unfortunately
Posted
2 minutes ago, Summer8906 said:

I'd be surprised to see the heat record broken in such a humid and unsettled month that is suggested for July, presumably the ground would not be dry enough to see really silly max temps.

It's quite possible the ground would remain dry enough in the target area (I'm assuming the South Midlands and the Southeast) via the very dry spring and record hot June to keep recording such high maxes. It's fairly plausible that the area could avoid a substantial amount of the stormy activity.

The 2019 record is still pretty flabbergasting to me to be honest, considering how wet the June was before it. I don't think spring 2019 had been that dry as to circumvent it. Having said that, July had been dry and warm in the target area beforehand so this could have been enough to turn the tides.

Either way, next year is a 5 and the 5s are notorious for ridiculous extremes. Chances are at least one of the things from this list will probably occur.

19 minutes ago, LetItSnow said:

but seeing as it did scarily well the other year

How well? And what year was this?

  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: North Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: I prefer summer to winter and the hotter and more thundery, the better!
  • Location: North Hampshire
Posted

 LetItSnow that July sounds awesome, like the August 2020 heatwave but persisting all throughout the month, and covering the North as well.  Yes please!  Would probably be the thunderiest month on record too. 

Posted
  • Location: Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny thundery summers with temps in the 20s, short cold snowy winters.
  • Location: Hampshire
Posted (edited)

 SummerShower The July sounds very like August 2022 in northern Greece. That was hot (but normal for there, not anomalously so) and sunny but also very, very thundery, something like 15 thunder-days with around 7 days of overhead storms?

Edited by Summer8906
Posted
  • Location: Islington, C. London
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snow, cool and wet.
  • Location: Islington, C. London
Posted

 CryoraptorA303 2022. Mind you it wasn’t great but it funnily enough got a very hot August and cold December correct.

 Summer8906 Unlikely, but I can see the synoptics for it in my mind quite clearly. A lot of very deep reds and slack airflows, with the occasional heat low - and of course high pressure as well. The June isn’t completely far fetched either. Many a hot summer month has two hot spells, but it would really be something for two to coincide with the calendar month and the second one be so intense. The interesting thing about many hot summer is that most of them have had their peak heat spread out. July 1983 and July 2006 are examples I can think that pretty much coincided with the calendar. 

Possible one of the July or Augusts left of the 2020s could pull a 20C+ CET. 

Posted
  • Location: Kent, unfortunately
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters, warm, early spring, cool, gentle summer, stormy autumn
  • Location: Kent, unfortunately
Posted

 LetItSnow An 18°C June sounds absolutely crazy. Very likely it'd surpass December 2015 for most anomalously hot month ever.

As I said, next year is a 5 so craziness is bound to happen.

7 minutes ago, LetItSnow said:

2022. Mind you it wasn’t great but it funnily enough got a very hot August and cold December correct.

Considering the fact that ChatGPT was very much in it's infancy back then compared to now, and we hadn't had many warm or hot Augusts in a while, and no cold Decembers at all and those are the two curveballs it predicted, I'd say maybe there's some weight to this? I mean, I hope not because this sounds like a nightmare summer, but it does have me wondering, especially as next year is an infamous 5, and this is already surprisingly in line with my own predictions regarding the first half of the year.

11 minutes ago, LetItSnow said:

Possible one of the July or Augusts left of the 2020s could pull a 20C+ CET.

I think it's quite likely even. With a warming world and five of each remaining, making 10 overall, there is probably quite a reasonable chance that at least one hits the jackpot.

1 hour ago, SummerShower said:

that July sounds awesome, like the August 2020 heatwave but persisting all throughout the month, and covering the North as well.  Yes please!  Would probably be the thunderiest month on record too. 

You're in Basingstoke so surely you experienced the heat first hand. I wouldn't wish August 2020 on my worst enemy, that heatwave was absolutely dreadful. A heatwave like that continuing on for any longer and achieving temps any higher than it did would be an absolute disaster and would have the hospitals piling up with heat stroke, heart attack and actual stroke victims in no time. I could see a month like that in a country with no A/C or any sort of resistance to prolonged intense heat becoming one of the most deadly weather disasters in history.

Posted
  • Location: Islington, C. London
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snow, cool and wet.
  • Location: Islington, C. London
Posted
37 minutes ago, CryoraptorA303 said:

An 18°C June sounds absolutely crazy.

Has happened 3 times before but the closest in recent times was 2023. 

Posted
  • Location: Kent, unfortunately
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters, warm, early spring, cool, gentle summer, stormy autumn
  • Location: Kent, unfortunately
Posted

 LetItSnow Ah, I was thinking of nationwide statistics.

Technically 1826 and 1840 (I think those are the right ones) are cheating because they were from a time when the CET was only recorded from Chiswick. In London 2023 got over 19°C so comparitively beat those two by over a degree. 1976 and 1940 (funny coincidence unless it was 1840something which is probable, I don't remember which ones it was) were already below those two in the CET but were probably warmer than 18°C in London.

Posted
  • Location: West Yorkshire
  • Location: West Yorkshire
Posted

 CryoraptorA303 I think the CET is adjusted for that by computing the older values by anomalies. But even on that measure there is still a bias because a single station is more prone to local extremes - it's harder to record a very high anomaly over the average of geographically dispersed stations than at a single one.

  • Like 1
Posted

I can’t help but think that 2025 will be the start of a new pattern for the UK as we know weather in the UK never stays the same so it has to change at some point who knows are we on the brink of a sunny and dry pattern ?

  • Like 3
  • Insightful 1
  • 2 weeks later...
Posted
  • Location: Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny thundery summers with temps in the 20s, short cold snowy winters.
  • Location: Hampshire
Posted (edited)

 Addicks Fan 1981 Could be worse. Jan 1989 was actually sunny and dry despite being mild.

Better a 1988/89 winter than something godawful like 2019/20, 2013/4 or 2015/6 !

Edited by Summer8906
  • 2 weeks later...
Posted
  • Location: South Derbyshire
  • Location: South Derbyshire
Posted

Haven't done mine yet so...

2025 

January - average temperatures, slightly drier and sunnier than average but nothing notable. A frosty final week.

February - a repeat of January but slightly milder. Again nothing particularly notable.

March - very wet and cold first half with some snow events a bit like 2023. Turning drier later with average temperatures.

April - a dry and sunny month with varying temperatures. One week cold and sunny, the next warm and sunny, like a yo-yo of 2020 and 2021.

May - chilly and fairly wet for most of the month but turning hotter and drier late in the month.

June - best month of the summer, warm and dry with plenty of sun but a couple of intermittent wet spells.

July - a change to cool and wet for the first week, then very hot and dry (hottest day since 2022) in the middle and an average end.

August - a rubbish summer month, not overly dull but cool, wet and showery. No heatwaves.

September - very dry and sunny. Quite warm overall but with cool nights, like a September version of May 2020.

October - continuing with the warm and dry theme for the first third, then turning wet and cool for the remainder of the month.

November - average all round in the first half, a notably cold second half and snowy spell in the final week.

December - cold and frosty early on with snow lingering but soon turning mild, wet and dull for most of the month.

Posted
  • Location: SE Wales.
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy winters, mild/warm summers and varied shoulder seasons
  • Location: SE Wales.
Posted

I’m feeling something similar to 2017. 2024 has reminded me a lot of 2016 plus both 2026 and 2024 are post Nino years transitioning to netural/weak Nina. 

Posted
  • Location: Nottingham
  • Location: Nottingham
Posted

Im doing Janaury-April

January - A cold, dry and sunny first half with N-lies, Mild and wet for roughly 10 days afterwards, then a cold end with Easterlies bringing snowfall. Slightly colder, sunnier and slightly drier than average. Highest temperature 13c, Lowest temperature -8c on the 30th

February - Very Cold and Snowy first week or so with the Easterlies from Jan persisting, then a brief mild and wet spell followed by a dry and very sunny half-term period (14th-23rd) with mild-ish days and cold nights, then a further cold spell with NWlies bringing snow showers and a brief widespread snow-cold rain event leading to a mild and damp final day. Around 1.5c colder than average with near average rainfall. Highest temperature 13c on the 11th and 21st. Lowest temperature -7c on the 5th

March - Mild and damp first few days, then chilly until mid-month (Showery NW-lies then Cold and Cloudy Easterlies), then a prolonged spell of sunny and dry weather with cold, frosty nights from the 15th to 27th, turning increasingly warm by day. A wet end with temperatures closer to average. Average temperatures but with cold nights and mild days, and a sunny and relatively dry month. Highest temperature 17c on the 24th and 25th, Lowest temperature -3c on the 18th

April - A changeable month, with a rather mild and changeable first few days, then a cold, bright and showery  N-ly and NW-ly spell from around the 4th to 7th, with a LP system meeting the cold air on the 9th, bringing heavy snow followed by cold rain on the 10th and less-cold air bringing more . A high pressure system arrives by the 13th, and brings a week of dry and sunny weather with temps in the high-teens and even low-20s by day but chilly by night, therefore allowing a decent Easter weekend. Thunderstorms for 2 days just after the Easter Weekend, then a wet final week with temps near or just below average. Sunny last 2 days with frosty mornings. Temps around or just below average, sunshine near average and quite a wet month (Wetter than April 2024 but not as wet as 2012)

 

  • 3 weeks later...
Posted

I’m going to summarise seasons instead of months.

winter January/February: 

two very mild months statistically but months that won’t feel very mild because of alternating mild spells to average spells to mini cold spells and when is it mild it will be raining so never really has a chance to feel warm kind of like now lots of heavy rain events practically no snow.

spring: the best spring since 2020 very dry sunny and warm with warm spells in every month.

summer: a wet summer but not a bad summer with frequent warm sunny spells mixed in with heavy rain and cool weather very 2019, hottest day since 2022 in July.

Autumn: usual autumn warm sunny September wet mild and dull October and November.

December: top 5 warmest on record first top 5 since may 2024.

  • Like 2
Posted
  • Location: Islington, C. London
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snow, cool and wet.
  • Location: Islington, C. London
Posted

A few months ago we had fun with the X-ending thread and in it I had a look at what X-ending years tend to be like. Well for fun I created January 2025 based on the past three 5-ending Januarys (2015, 2005 and 1995) using the NOAA Daily Composite creator thingy. Basically I created a unique synoptic chart for the 1st, 2nd, 3rd etc averaging each day. Three quite boring Januaries mostly but it gave me a very interesting month. I added my own creative spin on things.

Short version: A January of two halves. Generally changeable and mild in the first half but with a severe prolonged cold spell from the 20th onward. January 2025 would have a CET of 3.3C. A month with severe gales, some thunder, and a brutal freeze up. Would probably be a classic January. I'd imagine a bit wetter than normal but sunnier than average too.

Long version:

Quote

 

1st: Mostly cloudy with a brisk westerly flow, sunnier in the far north of Scotland with wintry showers. Heavy rain from the W/NW in the evening. Mild.

2nd: Wet and windy, weather front clears southwest. Very mild with heavy rain, colder and brighter behind with showers, mostly rain except higher ground in Scotland.

3rd: Brighter and much colder, ridge of high pressure from northwest with chilly air. Early and late frosts, mostly dry with long sunny spells, isolated showers along eastern coasts.

4th: Harsh frosts and thick freezing fog, especially central and southern England. Milder in Scotland with westerly winds bringing high-level cloud and patchy light rain.

5th: Milder, except southeast where frost and fog persist. Cloud increases as high pressure slips southeast, gentle southwesterly flow brings milder temperatures.

6th: Weather front brings rain to Scotland, rest of country mostly dry but cloudy. Far south coldest, frost, fog, and most sunshine.

7th: Cloud spreads south, reducing frost risk. Mostly dry but with widespread mist, fog, and gloom. Far north sees persistent cloud and light rain.

8th: Low pressure brings weather front with milder, wetter, windier weather, clearing mist and fog. Southeast sees patchy cloud and drizzle. Cold air follows into Scotland with wintry showers on a westerly wind.

9th: Very windy with heavy rain moving east, tight pressure gradient between high south and low north. Mild in the south, temperatures in the mid-teens.

10th: Colder in Scotland, northwesterly winds bring snow showers and longer spells of snow to higher ground. Mild initially in the south, weather fronts clear slowly, rain gives way to sunshine and showers.

11th: Colder air spreads to all areas, blustery northwesterly winds. Wintry showers, mainly sleet and hail in south, snow in north, especially Scotland. Sunshine between showers.

12th: Showers fade from northeast, harsh frost early, high pressure builds from west. Mostly sunny, high cloud spreads in from the west throughout the day.

13th: Rain in western Scotland, rest of country mostly dry with high cloud. Temperatures normal, cloud prevents frost.

14th: Persistent and torrential rain in Northern Ireland and western Scotland, milder there. Milder weather spreads, cloudy but mostly dry in England.

15th: Exceptionally mild as the ridge collapses southeast, very mild southwesterly flow. Torrential rain moves northeast, evening thunderstorms, especially around Bristol with localised flooding and lightning.

16th: More heavy rain and showers with thunderstorms, southwesterly flow. Warmth lessens, warm air moves away. Bright spells between rain bands.

17th: Wet and windy with deep low pressure in the Atlantic. Weather fronts become stuck due to heights to the east. Bright spells and showers in the far west.

18th: Low pressure fills in slowly, sunshine and heavy showers, some wintry due to low thickness and temperatures closer to average.

19th: Bright with some showers, temporary ridge builds between low pressure areas. Chilly feel, frost risk by night with clear skies.

20th: Southerly-tracking jet causes low pressure to move south, secondary low tracks through the English Channel in afternoon. Heavy rain in southern England, snowstorm in Midlands and north, 30-50cm snow causes travel disruption.

21st: Cold day as low pressure clears, northerly flow brings wintry showers southwards. Snow more prevalent north, harsh frosts early and late.

22nd: Cold with northerly winds, generally bright. Snow showers merge into longer spells southwards. North Sea feature brings prolonged sleet and snow across eastern counties.

23rd: Snow clears from eastern and southeastern counties, bitterly cold with northerly winds, further snow showers in places, variable cloud.

24th: Showers die out, feature in the North Sea brings more prolonged snow to eastern/southeastern counties. Bright but bitterly cold, areas below freezing where snow lay. Severe frost early and late.

25th: Pressure weakens southeast, winds veer northeasterly. Cloudy skies, snow showers inland and west. Scotland and northwest mostly dry and bright, cold.

26th: Snow showers isolated as pressure builds slightly. Very cold, raw under grey skies, slack N/NE flow.

27th: Cloudy and raw, east. Mostly dry start, snow showers in far southeast. Pressure weakens, evening low develops, bringing widespread snow southwards, affecting western areas.

28th: Active day, deepening low pressure moves south over the UK. Widespread snow southward, affecting western areas. Slightly less cold south, strong winds lead to drifting snow.

29th: Low pressure clears southeast, snow shifts south and east. Heavy snowfall and squally winds lead to whiteout conditions. Snow becomes more showery in the west, bright spells.

30th: Bitterly cold, northerly winds bring snow showers south. Most areas dry with plenty of sunshine, harsh frosts overnight.

31st: A cold day with squally N/NW winds, resulting in slightly less cold conditions but still near freezing. Generally bright with frequent wintry showers. Later in the day, an embedded feature brings general snow and sleet moving southwards across Northern Ireland, Wales, and parts of western England.

 

 

  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: Southend
  • Weather Preferences: Clear blue skies!
  • Location: Southend
Posted

My prediction-

Late season SSW to absolutely annihilate Spring & make Spring 2024 look like 2020 in comparison 

At least 10 out of 12 months having 50mm+ rainfall

Severe lack of sunshine culminating in the dullest year on record

If you set your expectations at rock bottom, you have less chance of being disappointed! Lol

I really hope there will be a pattern change next year though, it's been a rough 2 years for sunshine amounts in my area.

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