Potential UK Hit From ex-Hurricane Kirk

[Thunder Snow]

Hurricane Kirk is currently a major hurricane in the Atlantic, looking at its current path all subject to change of course. The UK looks set to see some long periods of heavy rain from mid week to the tail end of the week, with the ground all already saturated we could see some big impacts worth watching.

[Fen Wolf]

Interesting times….

[The PIT]

Followed by Leslie a few days later although that runs away to the NW of us.

[James1979]

 minus10 baby elephant kirk! 

Could be very interesting this one, partially hopeful for a hit and partially not as a home owner - the ongoing personal battle of love of wild weather v don't need the agro!

[minus10]

 *Stormforce~beka* yes the perfect hurricane shape and structure out in the middle of the Atlantic where it can do no harm...well unless there are any small islands or ships caught in its path...as for future path still as to be expected a lot of uncertainty with the gfs sticking to its ideas for direct hit uk as extratrop cyclone..

...other models tend to have weakened features that have moved on quicker in some cases and further south...

Ecm,Icon, gem and ukmo for next week..

...all still to play for though for as we know this is very difficult for models to get a handle on the pattern still this far out...

..

 

[Fiona Robertson]

Kirk currently a high end Cat 4, apparently GEFS Ensemble puts centre over England with pressure of 986 by Oct 10th. We'll see if this pans out. I stole this still image from Max Velocity's video that he just put out. Here's a link to his video.

 

[Thunder Snow]

Kirk has weakened slightly still a strong cat 4

[The PIT]

Well something to watch out for in the next few days. No doubt the press like the daily fail with have 200mph winds.

[Thunder Snow]

 The PIT don't forget noahs ark

[Midlands Ice Age]

3 hours ago, The PIT said:

Well something to watch out for in the next few days. No doubt the press like the daily fail with have 200mph winds.

Not quite correct PIt..

Try the Daily Labor instead - ( Mirror)

Large areas of the UK will soon be blanketed by snow that will fall for 72 hours - with temperatures also set to plummet to -10C, forecasters warn.

New maps from WX Charts show a dark purple formation across the British Isles, as the country plunges into sub-zero temperatures from as early as next week. Forecasts powered by Met Desk data have also predicted snow is on its way for several towns and cities, and will likely fall over a couple of days. Weather guru Jim Dale, senior meteorologist and founder of British Weather Services, said the upcoming snowfall would be "one to watch" amid falling temperatures.

 

They are all at it. They need the clicks.

 

Edited October 4, 2024 by Midlands Ice Age

[Fiona Robertson]

Ooo-er missus! We've made it into the NHC warning cone...

[Thunder Snow]

Kirk continues to weaken

[Kent Blizzard]

 Thunder Snow Good news and hopefully a growing trend, I lost 3 ridge tiles and 2 fence panels last year, could do without anymore damage! 

[Thunder Snow]

Storm isha last year claimed 2 trees in my garden, the entire fence and a tile off the roof

[Wold Topper]

A bit too early for wetting ones pants at the mo imo, see what next week brings

[The PIT]

looking like it will pass to the south of us at the moment.

[Paul]

Just uploaded - an update from @Nick F on Kirk and a look back at some of the other ex-hurricanes to affect the UK.

Ex-Hurricane Kirk threatens southern UK next week, but how common are ex-Hurricanes?

WWW.NETWEATHER.TV

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Hurricane Kirk, currently a major cat.4 hurricane, looks to track northeast to arrive across NW Europe as a deep ex-tropical low mid-week. But how common are ex-hurricanes in the UK?

 

[Fiona Robertson]

 The PIT It's the diameter of the wind field I'm concerned about. Even if the centre tracks along the Channel, the winds will be felt much further north into Scotland. My concern is purely selfish - I built my polytunnel in the spring. It's yet to get tested against an autumn gale. Also, a while back I had a tree come partially down over my stables in unwarned winds that absolutely howled all night. Nothing makes me run faster than being in a tack room under an "oddly angled" tree and hearing the main trunk go "CRACK!"

[stodge]

The latest NHC bulletin puts the centre of Kirk just off Brittany and then heading North East through the eastern Channel to be around Heligoland 24 hours later.

That would suggest the path is the same as the GFS 06Z OP but while that evolution shows a further deepening of the storm centre (around 965 MB as it passes Dover) the NHC itself suggests a continued weakening but still as a significant feature.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/145630.shtml?cone#contents 

Edited October 5, 2024 by stodge

[Blessed Weather]

From the Met Office, posted Saturday afternoon 5th Sept:

 

[Slysi100]

 Blessed WeatherThat has Kirk much further south. Even north France would escape the worst of the winds going on this.

[WeatherWatchmanG]

I think we need to follow and not the met office on this one

National Hurricane Center

WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV

and tropical tidbits

Error 404: Page not found | Tropical Tidbits

WWW.TROPICALTIDBITS.COM

There is a low already here that won't move and as long as it doesn't that will deflect this from our shores.

[WeatherWatchmanG]

Sorry will have to add Europe animation from that run into a seperate post it wouldn't allow me to add another gif file to that it does show impacts that would have already gone over land then arriving into southern England so the coast might still see impacts. This started 72 hours out and ended 120 hours for Europe and 3 hours to 120 hours for the Atlantic to cover upto and including Thursday.

ICON Model – MSLP & Precip for Europe | Tropical Tidbits

WWW.TROPICALTIDBITS.COM

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ICON model forecast of MSLP & Precip for Europe

Edited October 5, 2024 by WeatherWatchmanG

[Rush2019]

Live Weather Satellite Map | Zoom Earth

ZOOM.EARTH

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Near real-time global weather satellite images. Updated every 10 minutes across the US.

Current path as of 8.10am this morning.  

 

[The PIT]

Going to make a bit rough in the English channel and batter France but looks like we got away with this one.