Potential UK Hit From ex-Hurricane Kirk

[stodge]

Morning all

A further southward move for Kirk this morning on GFS OP and Control.

As someone else has suggested, the LP which will affect us on Tuesday doesn't get out of the way quickly enough for Kirk to have a "clear run" and indeed Kirk phases into the trough and the centre is pulled south of the British Isles. The phasing broadens the trough but that I assume diffuses the energy so the core is 980 MB as it crosses Belgium in the early hours on Thursday and the goes through two cycles of slight deepening as it moves into north west Germany, across Denmark and Sweden before dissipating at the end of the week.

A "lucky escape" perhaps but interesting to see how the phasing of troughs is forecast - on this occasion, GFS has got it wrong and ECM/GEM called it better.

The timing is also interesting - originally Kirk was going to reach the British Isles on Friday but has accelerated, again presuambly due to the interaction with the existing trough.

 

[Rush2019]

 The PIT   Certainly a bit rough for anyone out in the Bay of Biscay. 

[WeatherWatchmanG]

It's still to early to call it, until it's no longer a Hurricane I don't think we can even get a good judgement on it's path.

We've seen it change route on projected paths a lot in the last 48 hours.

 

GFS Model – MSLP & Precip (Rain/Frozen) for Europe | Tropical Tidbits

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GFS model forecast of MSLP & Precip (Rain/Frozen) for Europe

midnight Wednesday - 6am Thursday still shows we will see it's impacts into the south coast of England into and upto areas as far north as the midlands.

Edited October 6, 2024 by WeatherWatchmanG

[IanT]

How common is it for any part of the UK to fall within the solid part of the cone? I don’t recall seeing it previously.

[The PIT]

Not that uncommon. On example.

 

[Rush2019]

kirk looks to have tracked further south,  through mid France position.

[The PIT]

If it keeps getting corrected further south Spain and Portugal will be in the firing line.

[WeatherWatchmanG]

Still shows the remnants just to the south of England Wednesday night though all impacts to remain in France, it if tracks a little further north then the south coast of England will see it's effects.

[alr1970]

 The PIT it certainly looks that way, the centre of the low brushing the north coast of Spain on Wednesday:

[Fiona Robertson]

Off topic. Been watching western Gulf of Mexico. Gone from tropical depression to Cat 5 in under 24 hrs. It wasn't even predicted to reach Cat 3 until tonight, Florida time.

Edited October 7, 2024 by Fiona Robertson

[Fiona Robertson]

Milton currently has 175mph sustained winds and central pressure of 911 mb! Yes, I know, off topic again. I've never seen a system intesify at this speed...ever.

Edited October 7, 2024 by Fiona Robertson

[Fiona Robertson]

Last post on this topic, I promise. This is just for eye candy  

[WeatherWatchmanG]

Strange way this topic ended, covering Milton in a Storm Kirk thread.

6am tomorrow still very nearby and the following sequence still shows a slither of remnants reaching the south coast.

[Metwatch]

Can see where Hurricane Kirk tracked looking at the sea surface temperature anomaly chart now!

[The PIT]

Need a few more of them to lower the temperature generalluy. Can see why Leslie came back to hurricane status as Kirk hadn't cooled the waters on that part of it's track.

[Malarky]

I think my weather app might be overdoing it a touch.

 

[Summer8906]

Some significant rain overnight down here by the looks of things, I guess this was from the edge of Kirk.

Edited October 10, 2024 by Summer8906

[Sprites]

 Malarky Too windy for an umbrella