Hurricane Milton

[WYorksWeather]

Commencing this thread now it has been designated as a Tropical Storm in a formal advisory.

As of the latest NHC update, the intensity forecast for the newly-designated TS is calling for it to become a hurricane within 36 hours, and eventually a major hurricane prior to landfall on Florida's western coast.

Quote

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/2100Z 22.7N 95.5W 35 KT 40 MPH

12H 06/0600Z 22.9N 95.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

24H 06/1800Z 23.0N 94.1W 55 KT 65 MPH

36H 07/0600Z 23.0N 92.8W 70 KT 80 MPH

48H 07/1800Z 23.1N 91.2W 80 KT 90 MPH

60H 08/0600Z 23.8N 89.3W 90 KT 105 MPH

72H 08/1800Z 24.8N 87.2W 100 KT 115 MPH

96H 09/1800Z 27.7N 83.0W 100 KT 115 MPH

120H 10/1800Z 30.4N 77.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 

Clearly there will be a lot of discussion about exact tracks and intensity at this stage, but it should be noted that at this stage, landfall is possible almost anywhere on the western coast of Florida.

The intensity models show a very broad range, but the bulk of the output looks to be around the major hurricane (Cat 3) threshold, hence it makes a certain amount of sense that this is the starting point for the NHC. It should be noted, however, that the NHC don't rule out further increases to the official forecast intensity in the coming days (emphasis mine):

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The official intensity forecasts calls for Milton to become a hurricane in about 36 hours, and a major hurricane by 72 hours. The regional hurricane models continue to be quite aggressive in intensifying Milton. For now, the NHC intensity forecast is near the multi-model consensus aids, but upward adjustments could be required if the dynamical hurricane models continue their trends.

All charts sourced from Tropical Tidbits or the National Hurricane Center (NHC).

Edited October 7 by Jo Farrow
upgrade to hurricane

[AderynCoch]

Not looking good for the Tampa Bay area right now. A direct hit would make Helene's recent flooding there look like a picnic.

[WeatherArc]

Satellite view of Tropical Storm Milton tonight, shes still got a way to go before becoming a hurricane however the way she has rapidly developed is ringing alarm bells for me, its also worth noting she is looking increasingly organised defo got a prominent LLC and may be starting to spin up MLC. There is a bit of shear but nothing crippling, she'll continue to steadily intensify until tomorrow where shear is forecast to let up and allow for further intensification. 

Very healthy looking storm.

Big convective flare up as well in her center with Hot Towers already reaching below -80c 

One way Milton will be different to Helene is that she looks like she will have a much smaller center, will help her intensify more but will keep impacts more localised. 

In terms of modelling we now have our first Cat 5 run, 12z Hafs-B goes 166mph with pressure down to 919mb.

Ill also repost these population density maps just to remake the point that Milton's current NHC track is gonna cause real big problems, straight over the Tampa bay area (population of 3.1 million) 

Helene hit Floridas big bend and she caused enough problems. Tampa has only been hit twice by hurricanes, once in 1921 the other in 1848. Worst case scenario here is Milton makes landfall slightly north of Tampa Bay, leading to massive storm surge would be a nightmare scenario. These tracks often do change a bit so 

 

 

 

[WYorksWeather]

18z GFS has a 958mb landfall. Ever so slightly weaker than the 12z GFS (951mb), but for all practical purposes, no real change. Especially since this frame likely already shows some land interaction - the previous frame has 954mb just offshore.

Edited October 5 by WYorksWeather

[Penguin16]

I don’t recall seeing a hurricane take this path before while travelling in this direction. Seems very strange 

[WeatherArc]

And i see we have now reached the stupid phase of Hafs-B runs, 906mb Cat 5 with peak sustained winds of 180mph

Landfall as a high end Cat 4, peak sustained winds of 149mph just north of Tampa metro. Would likely be some significant surge coming into the bay area.

[WeatherArc]

That is one healthy looking tropical storm, cant get over how quickly developed, do my eyes deceive me or is there some slight rotation of those hot towers now. 

Helene took a few days to develop into a hurricane, Milton already has a developed LLC with deep convection firing over it, despite only being named tropical storm a few hours ago shes already well on her way to becoming a Hurricane.

 

 

[Thunder Snow]

I think this one is gonna be a big storm indeed

[WeatherArc]

 Thunder Snow We could well be dealing with a Cat 4 if not Cat 5 Hurricane in around 48 hours time, models are predicting some crazy levels of rapid intensification. 

 

[Thunder Snow]

 WeatherArc I know all eyes on milton

[Derecho]

 Penguin16 My immediate thought also. It is really rare for a hurricane to take the forecast path.

Reminds me of hurricane Lenny back in 1999 that took an unprecedented easterly path into though further south in the GOM.

That ended up being a category 4, I wouldn't be surprised if Milton got to a similar strength, though land interaction may hinder it's development (but only if it gets close to Mexico - most do not), a lot of uncertainty about its track.

Edited October 6 by Derecho

[karyo]

The ECM and the UKMO this morning show Milton as a shallower storm heading for southern Florida by Thursday. This is a downgrade from the ECM while the UKMO shows consistency in not deepening Milton much. 

The GFS and ICON still have a much deeper storm and a more northerly track.

[Alderc 2.0]

Hoping the ECM/UKMO models are on the right track here, Tampa is a place I’ve visited many times and I’m meant to be there in 2weeks time. Some of the guidance is quite frightening shoving a tightly wound storm direct into the metro area which off course would be nothing other than devastating. However lots of uncertainty and there was talk yesterday of quite a lot of dry air and a some frontal activity near by on Wednesday which could mean Milton is undergoing transition to an extra-tropical cyclone by the time it’s land falling. Additionally some of the US convective always appear to over egg storm strength so they should be viewed with caution.

[matty40s]

 

[karyo]

The 4am NHC update has Milton on 50mph winds and minimum central pressure 1003 mb

[FetchCB]

 Alderc 2.0 The discussion on NHC does mention the uncertainty but also states that their guidance is below model consensus 

[FetchCB]

Hurricane Hunters on route to investigate

Live Atlantic Recon Mapped in Cesium - Tropical Atlantic

TROPICALATLANTIC.COM

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View the latest hurricane reconnaissance in the North Atlantic basin mapped in Cesium.

 

[karyo]

Slight downgrade in intensity from both the 6z ICON and GFS. 

[matty40s]

 

[WeatherArc]

Good morning Milton, with pressure in the...980s????

Probably being overdone a little but still Milton means business, she has got a little bit of dry air around but convection rapidly firing on her south eastern quadrant to try to protect her eyewall.

50% chance of rapid intensification in the next 24 hours.

Last night ISS microwave passes revealed Milton has almost developed an eyewall, took Helene 48 hours to do this, Milton's done it in about 8.

HAFS-B now has a 899mb CAT 5 with sustained winds of 188mph, probably overdoing it but pretty insane to see,  I believe it would be the 4th-5th lowest recorded pressure Hurricane in the Atlantic

HAFS-A has 905mb CAT 5 with sustained winds of around 180mph

Interestingly, both models significantly weaken Milton before landfall, mostly due to dry air in her southern quadrant. Have to keep an eye on how this develops.

Edited October 6 by WeatherArc

[karyo]

Detailed analysis from Mr Weatherman. He also explains the difference in the models re: track and strength

 

[Lauren]

Interesting times ahead with this one.

[WeatherArc]

All signs from this mornings earlier hurricane hunter flight seem to suggest Milton is really gaining steam, well on the way to Hurricane status with well developed core and MLC beginning to rotate, pressure really dropping. Could well be a hurricane by tonight imo.

Environment out infront of this thing is pretty perfect for the next few days, Cat 5 defo achievable by Tuesday afternoon.

 

[karyo]

The 12z GFS puts the north coast of the Yucatan peninsula in danger! Not a direct hit but much closer than earlier runs and certainly some wind impacts.

[Penguin16]

Read earlier it’s trending south of tampa as it’s weaker.