Hurricane Milton

[FetchCB]

This is spellbinding it's like a bomb has been set of in the middle and then it starts rotating 

[Alderc 2.0]

Officially a hurricane and rapidly intensifying. Wouldn’t be surprised to wake up to a Cat3-4. Only thing I can say is thank goodness it looks like it’ll be weaken towards landfall.

[karyo]

Wow Milton has strengthened really fast!

[snowsummer]

As gripping as it is to follow,  i cant help but think of the individual people behind this. If you've just lost everything, your home ,your car, how on earth do you deal with this monster that has a good chance of hitting those same individuals? And then ive just read numerous  reports that the hurricane  season may well be extended this year. Truly heartbreaking,  but  morbidly fascinating.  Looking at all the latest data i really think it will be a cat 4. Or even higher. So hope im wrong

[matty40s]

Sooner rather than later people need to get their heads round abandoning parts of Florida permanently. 

Of course this doesnt fit in with rational day to day thought of the states residents, and certainly not of climate change denying De-Santis, but the fact is that the majority of Florida is built on a swamp, and most of it will effectively be underwater at high tide within the next 50 years.

Ft Lauderdale has had multiple major floodings in the last 2 years, insurance must be almost impossible to gain.

Tropical storms are only going to get bigger wetter and stronger, with higher storm surges, and come from different directions. Drains only drain if they can drain downhill to space, they cant drain if the tide is filling them ....

Edited October 6 by matty40s

[Mcconnor8]

This is intensifying faster than pretty much all the models predicted per the recon from today, definitely not out of the question it will reach Cat 5 while out in the Gulf, just got to hope it does meet some shear prior to landfall and that it avoids a direct hit on Tampa Bay which would be catastrophic. Currently the GFS and ECM ensembles show pretty much that so got to hope we see some shifts.

[matty40s]

 

[Derecho]

58 minutes ago, matty40s said:

Of course this doesnt fit in with rational day to day thought of the states residents, and certainly not of climate change denying De-Santis,

Yup there will be blame on the democrats instead whilst ignoring the elephant in the room of climate change that is helping fuel these intense storms. I think this storm is unfortunately going to follow recent October major hurricanes like Matthew and Michael.

Its path really is unusual and I fear the impacts this will have. It may brush the Yucitan penninsula which may limit how much it intensifies but it would still be a dangerous storm. If it doesn't then it's going to be tracking over very warm waters for several days.

September was quieter then many people expected but this October is sadly making up lost ground.

Edited October 6 by Derecho

[WeatherArc]

Milton has the look, The beginnings of vortical hot towers are explosively reaching up into the upper Troposphere and even the lower Stratosphere attempting to wrap around her center as a CDO develops, her core convection is now at frigid -70c or below with some updrafts reaching -88c.

Milton is way ahead of schedule, what this means later down the road remains unclear.

 

Latest intensity run has a third model reaching Cat 5, latest spaghetti tracks have also trended more north towards Tampa Bay once again.

Edit-Wow look at that massive blowup of convection on her eastern quadrant, hot towers going up into the stratosphere there.

NHC has now upgraded Milton to a 145mph Cat 4

Edited October 6 by WeatherArc

[Snowspout]

Imagine the lightning in those towers. Frequent red sprites.

[WYorksWeather]

Given the rapid intensification we are currently seeing, I think the best case for the Florida coast is probably that it peaks fairly early, then an eyewall replacement cycle in combination with some shear rips the storm to pieces well offshore, so it landfalls below major hurricane strength.

However, if I were anywhere within the likely area of impact, I wouldn't be taking any chances and would leave. A house, possessions, a business etc. are very important, but none of that stuff is worth your life. Better safe than sorry and all that.

[GreyCrag]

One issue that will likely result from Hurricane Milton aside from the obvious wind & storm-surge is that Florida is built on-top of a Limestone Aquifer system, so many months/years down the line from now we'll be hearing about sinkholes in urban areas that were a direct cause from what extreme rainfall is going to occur across the peninsular.

This same Aquifer system, if blocked by the surge, will also directly impact those living well outside of the main impact area as excess groundwater will backlog and flood through the main conduits.

[WeatherArc]

Thats some very high end wording from the NHC

[WYorksWeather]

 WeatherArc And a 145mph peak. That's high-end category 4, and the NHC are still noting that this could be on the conservative side as you've highlighted.

There's nothing to stop this one making a run at high-end Cat 4 or even Cat 5 in the Gulf. It is then just a case of how much it weakens before landfall. Hopefully the answer is a lot, and the shear really does a number on it.

Clearly, if that's not the case, or if any weakening doesn't take place until the last moment, then the storm surge will be horrendous.

[The PIT]

Milton is looking like it will be a brute.

[matty40s]

Price of fuel will rise as they exit the rigs in the gulf.

[karyo]

It looks to me that Milton will have bigger impacts for the northern part of Yucatan peninsula than first thought. All the overnight main models bring the hurricane much closer to the Yucatan coastline than earlier output.

[karyo]

The 4am NHC update shows that Milton has strengthened to 100mph winds! The pressure fell to 972mb

Moving east/southeast at 8pm bringing him closer and closer to Yucatan! I hope he changes direction to northeast, Mexico does not have the resources to deal with another catastrophic hurricane. They had hurricane John a couple of weeks which caused huge destruction and death to the west coast but it hardly made the news as all the attention was on the US impacts from Helene.

Edited October 7 by karyo

[FetchCB]

Worth noting that as the storm is forecast to weaken just before landfall it is also forecast to become bigger with tropical storm winds expanding from 160 miles across to 280 miles. Like so many hurricanes the worry should not be the winds but the storm surge. 

[Gray-Wolf]

 FetchCB

Of course the storm surge is the bigger killer but with the wreckage from Helene still littering portions of the area to be hit there'll be more dangers than normal from flying debris? 

[Mcconnor8]

 karyo GFS 6z looks to edge it slightly further North than the 0z run with regards to the Yutacan Peninsula, then a catastrophic landfall near Tampa Bay on Wednesday Evening local time, storm surge would be horrendous if this run came to pass.

Edited October 7 by Mcconnor8

[karyo]

 Mcconnor8 Yes, at least the GFS stops the recent trend but I would still expect a storm surge in the Yucatan tomorrow.

[Mcconnor8]

 karyo Looks on Radar like there is a LOT of lightning in the eyewall currently, which probably means it is undergoing rapid intensification right now, recon going through soon.

[Mcconnor8]

Pressure down to 951.3mb per Recon just now, latest NCH advisory only a couple of hours ago had it at 972mb so it is undergoing very rapid intensification right now with a pinhole eye developing. Per wind speeds it is already a Cat 3 from just a Cat 1 a few hours ago.

Edited October 7 by Mcconnor8

[karyo]

 Mcconnor8 That's impressive!