Hurricane Milton

[Mcconnor8]

Milton now a confirmed Category 3 in a special NHC advisory a few minutes ago, will likely be a Cat 4 today and maybe Cat 5 tomorrow.

Edited October 7 by Mcconnor8

[Fen Wolf]

This is going to be catastrophic for the state of Florida, everyone needs to abandon ship now and get out whilst they can 

[Fen Wolf]

Unbelievable lightning in the eye it is constant!

[Mcconnor8]

 Fen Wolf With the pinhole eye it means it must be intensifying very rapidly still, likely a Cat 4 in a few hours I think and maybe even a Cat 5 tonight or tomorrow. The amount of lightning right now in the eyewall is indeed crazy.

Edited October 7 by Mcconnor8

[Fen Wolf]

 Mcconnor8 imagine flying through it ️

[FetchCB]

 Gray-Wolf yes, of course. Just been watching news channels along Gulf coast.... The mind boggles as to the additional danger of all that loose debris

[Alderc 2.0]

The intensification process is currently pretty extreme and pressure has dropped 25-30mb in just 8hrs. Hard to see how pressure doesn’t drop into at least the 920-30mb range  which would give Milton a decent run at cat5. Also some models hinting at slightly less shear and dry air intrusion Tuesday into Wednesday. This one really could land  Jam side down for somewhere in the west cost of Florida.

[Alderc 2.0]

Actually pressure dropped 9mb in the last hour to 945mn and 32mb in the last 8hrs.

[Mcconnor8]

 Alderc 2.0 27mb in 2 hours which is wild.

Edited October 7 by Mcconnor8

[mountain shadow]

 Mcconnor8 When you have rocket fuel sea temperatures, it's not surprising in today's world.

The lightning is absolutely incredible. Never seen the like.

[Penguin16]

Is it a hit on tampa more likely than it looked yesterday? Haven’t had time to check anything 

[Mcconnor8]

 Penguin16 GFS still has landfall around Tampa Bay, maybe slightly North of it, but obviously still plenty of time for it to shift especially with it intensifying so quickly.

[cowdog]

When is the next recon? Got a funny feeling this is going to be Cat 5 by midnight our time. At least if that happens people should hopefully get the message and get out of there.

[FetchCB]

HFSA & HFSB both seem to have modelled the intensity correctly thus far 

They both have it as a cat 5 in the next day or so

and whose track is a worst case scenario for Tampa 

So it maybe a cat 3 when it lands but may have a cat 4 or even cat 5 storm surge

 

 

 

 

 cowdog they are in it now

 

Live Recon in the Atlantic Basin - Tropical Atlantic

TROPICALATLANTIC.COM

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View the latest Atlantic hurricane recon in Google Earth and Cesium.

 

[Mcconnor8]

Pressure now down to 941mb, looks like it is now a Cat 4, much faster than even the bullish HFSA and HFSB models predicted.

Edited October 7 by Mcconnor8

[snowsummer]

Goes from bad to worse. Now predicted  to be a cat 5 later today . 

[karyo]

The latest NHS update is jaw dropping!

Maximum sustained winds: 155mph

Pressure: 933mb

 

HURRICANE MILTON

WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV

 

Edited October 7 by karyo

[Mcconnor8]

 karyo If it does make landfall either on or just North of Tampa Bay then we will be looking at Katrina levels of devastation from the storm surge, just got to pray the track moves to a less populated area of the coastline or it will be an absolute disaster.

Edited October 7 by Mcconnor8

[Derecho]

I notice Milton is tracking closer to the Yucitan penninsula still. Might it weaken the storm or will it pass just north?

[karyo]

 Mcconnor8 Indeed!

The 12z ICON has upgraded the strength and shifted the Florida landfall a bit further north than earlier output.

[cheese]

Yes the cone has shifted north, now showing direct landfall for the Tampa Bay area. Worst case scenario. 

Edited October 7 by cheese

[Mcconnor8]

 Derecho It looks like it will *just* miss it but will be a close run thing

[karyo]

 Derecho Some weakening is possible, as it happened with Helene, but after that Milton has plenty of warm GOM water ahead to restrengthen.

[Derecho]

I notice some runs still have it as a cat 3 in a weeks time still. Milton must be maintaining some strength even after crossing Florida on these runs.

The rapid intensification of Milton in the past few hours has been extreme. The question now is by how much more? Interaction with Yucitan and any eyewall replacement cycle are the only potential hinderances at this point. Even with the latter this would just most likely result in a bigger storm so it's no consolation.

Edited October 7 by Derecho

[Penguin16]

The centre Tracking north of tampa would inflict more damage than it tracking south?