Hurricane Milton

[WeatherArc]

When i went to uni 8 hours ago Milton was  a low range Cat 1

Ive now come back to an almost Cat 5 beast, extraordinary levels of Rapid Intensification, this could well be a historic storm in just how quickly its been able to become so intense, Milton is on course to become a violent Hurricane in the next few hours.

Vortical Hot towers are rapidly rotating around the pinhole eye, reaching up into the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere. The CDO is at a frigid -75c or below. 

Her Eyewall is absolutely spitting out lightning, testament to the raw power of this beast.

Latest recon from Hurricane Hunter aircraft is pretty startling, showing some absolutely crazy data, apparently the next flight is currently hesitant to go in due to the sheer power of the updrafts within the eyewall, likely Cat 5 already.

7mb per hour pressure falls

 

Edited October 7 by WeatherArc

[Penguin16]

 

 

Edited October 7 by Penguin16

[Sparkiee storm]

Reed's latest update on Milton - 

 

[WeatherArc]

Milton has now been officially upgraded to a Category 5 Hurricane, what an absolutely remarkable and violent storm

[Fen Wolf]

Is it possible this could become the new category 6?  I dunno if they have started using the theory of higher classification yet? 

As I said this is going to be catastrophic for Florida!  Get out now

[swebby]

 Penguin16

If by "more" you mean the location of the worse impacts, then yes, Tampa would fair better if it was to track to it's south.  A southward track would mean winds would be directed alongshore/offshore rather than onshore and any storm surge would be lower.

[Jo Farrow]

Florida prepares as Hurricane Milton passes Yucatan, Mexico

WWW.NETWEATHER.TV

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Major Hurricane Milton will impact Mexico for the start of the week before heading to Florida on Wednesday. Evacuation plans are being announced.

 

[Mcconnor8]

 Penguin16 the highest storm surge is always on the South side of the storm as that is the direction the counterclockwise wind blows the water inland, so a track just to the North of Tampa Bay would bring the highest surge level

[karyo]

The UKMO has consistently has shown a shallower storm, often at odds with the other models. The 12z massively upgrades Milton's strength!

I have to say, it is not a model I highly rate for tropical activity as I find it often sticks with one idea for too long and then it drops it.

Edited October 7 by karyo

[Penguin16]

Previous forecasts had the highest storm surge of 8 to 12ft. Read various tweets stating that you can double that now in a best case scenario.

[Sparkiee storm]

This is a scary storm, maybe super storm, hopefully all on the West Coast of Florida gets out, especially Tampa/Tampa Bay. Crazy that it is a couple weeks after the disaster from Helene too. A few hints of another hurricane around 18th on the last couple GFS runs too but too far out for that.

Edited October 7 by Sparkiee storm

[Mcconnor8]

 karyo Disregard the UKMO completely for Hurricanes imo, it didn't even want to develop this at all a couple of days ago and look where we are now

[karyo]

 Mcconnor8 Agreed! It performed similarly poorly with Helene.

[Derecho]

25 minutes ago, Fen Wolf said:

Is it possible this could become the new category 6?

I think the reason why we don't have a category 6 is that a category 5 does enough damage on its own but maybe as things change this is worth looking at.

[WeatherArc]

This is the most extreme rapid intensification i have ever seen, still going now dropping 10mb in one hour.

Flight level winds are now nearing 200 mph.

I just cant get over this incredible satellite presentation as those violent vortical hot towers slam upwards into the lower stratosphere, and spin around the rapidly deepening and warming eye.

Hurricane hunter flights actually now reporting hail from some of these violent updrafts.

Look at how quickly that eye warms and drys out

 

[Thunder Snow]

I can't believe how this has gone from a cat 1 to 5 in such a short time, has it broken any records 

[snowsummer]

So being  somewhat a novice , can i just ask, is there a limit to the strength  this hurricane  can reach?  Thank you

[AderynCoch]

Wow, at this point the forecast shear before landfall is for the birds; if anything, it will only expand the wind field. The storm surge for much of Florida is going to be catastrophic.

Interesting how quickly the forecast track changed too. The north coast of the Yucatán Peninsula is suddenly about to get raked.

[FetchCB]

 Thunder Snow in terms of increases in windspeeds over 24 hours it's second only to Wilma in 2005 

Hurricane Wilma - Wikipedia

EN.M.WIKIPEDIA.ORG

 

[Mcconnor8]

 FetchCB Wilma developed in the Caribbean as well, for the Gulf of Mexico it is undoubtedly a record breaker.

 snowsummer Theroetically around 200mph sustained winds should be the limit given the atmospheric environment in the Gulf, but of course you never know.

[Sparkiee storm]

 snowsummer All i know Cat 5 is 157mph + with no upper limit so if everything is favourable and ever increasing sea temps continue then no there isn't any limit and hurricanes will get more and more powerful. I think one day the scale to Cat 6 + may have to be implemented officially.

Edited October 7 by Sparkiee storm

[WeatherArc]

 snowsummer This is the latest Maximum Potential Intensity maps for the Atlantic/Gulf, it takes ocean heat content/energy potential into account, now it doesnt take into account something like an eyewall replacement cycle, that could well happen with Milton due to its small pinhole eye (Miltons small eye has been the cause behind its extreme intensification and strength)

But if absolutely nothing goes "wrong" for Milton MPI maps has it going sub 900mb with sustained winds likely up to 185-195mph.

However, Milton will weaken before hitting Florida, a cold front coming down from the north will introduce wind shear that will start to tear her internal systems up, they may not look like it on the outside but Hurricanes on the inside are extremely delicate things. Which is lucky cause the cyclone heat potential just west of Florida is quite scary.

In the back of my mind i am slightly scared of A-Milton speeding up and outrunning the shear to the north and becomes less impacted making her stronger or B-Shes just so strong the shear has less of an impact on slowing her down.

 

Edited October 7 by WeatherArc

[Jordan S]

Definitely wouldn't be at all surprised to see maximum sustained winds at least briefly of 185+mph (gusts upto 220mph) with this incredibly powerful hurricane if it continues it's rapid intensification before slowly weakening before landfall in Florida. Possibly the first and last time this name will be used if the impacts are as extreme as they are possibly looking like being for Florida even with a possible weakening beforehand.. an absolutely phenomenal intensification rate and extremely powerful hurricane..

With sustained winds apparently theorised to possibly increase around 5% every 1 Celsius increase in ocean temperature in perfect conditions, then you'd think if the hurricane wind scale remains the same then a higher (cat 6) tier could eventually be inevitable and necessary to add, but maybe not for a while yet..

[AderynCoch]

The one short-term saving grace is that there will have to be an EWRC sooner or later, which will stall intensification - but again, the wind field will only expand as a result.

It's also worth bearing in mind that this thing hasn't hit the Gulf Loop Current yet.

[pages]

Everyone talking about Landfall in Florida are we sure yet landfall is not going to be the yuctan pensiunla tonight. None of the models had it this strong bit also all of them had it heading due East long before now. It's still going ESE.