Hurricane Milton

[WeatherArc]

Pressure has dropped another 11mb and is now down to 914mb, this storm is becoming stupidly violent.

Milton is now tied second place with Maria for the fastest to C5, first place 2005 Wilma was the most intense Atlantic hurricane on record with a central pressure of 882mb.

HAFS-B model jumpscare with pressure down to 884mb and maximum sustained winds of 197mph!!!

Edited October 7, 2024 by WeatherArc

[Penguin16]

 WeatherArc What is that model? Never heard of it before.

[swebby]

 snowsummer

The scale for hurricanes is 1-5 and is based on the expected level of damage they can cause, so in terms of it's description it maxes out as category 5 and as @Derecho points out, once you reach Cat 5 levels the centre of storm is so utterly destructive that there really is no where further to go in regards to it's description.  You could add a new category number but it is pointless given a cat 5 hurricane is already going to flatten/flood anything in it's path.

In terms of windspeed, rainfall and central pressure, that will be limited by the thickness and humidity of the atmosphere, the sea temperatures that are the heat engine that provide the energy for a hurricane and the rate that energy in the sea can be converted to atmospheric convection. With modern sea temperatures, central minimum pressure of around 880mb and sustained winds around 200mph are really the limit.

[chilly milly]

Have a friend at Disney Florida at the moment. Hope she will be okay.

[WeatherArc]

 Penguin16 Its the HAFS-B, basically a specialist model just for hurricanes, if you go on the tropical tidbits site you can find it, as well as the other 6 main hurricane forecasting models.

Some interesting things popping up on them tonight for sure, like how none of them predicted RI of this pace so they may all be playing catch up, normally a model going going 884mb is very ridiculous, with Milton i genuinely think it could be possible.

Forecast Models | Tropical Tidbits

WWW.TROPICALTIDBITS.COM

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Real-time weather model forecast graphics

Edited October 7, 2024 by WeatherArc

[WeatherArc]

You have got to be kidding me with this satellite presentation

 

Edited October 7, 2024 by WeatherArc

[Mcconnor8]

912mb now, looks like we will be sub 900mb in not too long, simply ridiculous intensification today.

[Ball Lightning]

 WeatherArc 884mb is getting towards earths record low atmospheric pressure (870mb). Which technically, would not only make it a ridiculously strong hurricane, but also one of the strongest storms ever recorded in terms of non-tornadic surface pressure in the world.

Edited October 7, 2024 by hailcore

[Fen Wolf]

 WeatherArc it’s gonna drop below 900 soon

[WeatherArc]

Milton is now the 4th strongest Atlantic hurricane in terms of sustained winds at 175mph

This small chain of islands north of the Yucatan likely to take direct or close pass from eyewall, not many buildings here but i just hope everyone's evacuated because there's not going to be much (if anything) left after this beast is done with them.

 

[Thunder Snow]

Wow milton strengthens some more 175mph and 911mb pressure  

[swebby]

One for the hurricane anoraks on here - are there any other major hurricanes that have formed in the far western gulf of mexico and travelled due east past the Yucatan like this?

To my mind Caribbean and eastern Gulf of Mexico generated storms tend to drift North/NE and Western Gulf of mexico storms tend to head north or drift west and dump stupid amounts of rain somewhere over Central America, possibly making it to the Pacific where they occasionally reform.   Can not immediately think of any big storms that have had a path similar to this?

[snowsummer]

 matty40s  seems like we're  getting a bit to close for comfort far sooner than expected 

[Thunder Snow]

Florida really need to see this thing weaken before landfall

[*Stormforce~beka*]

 chilly milly If she's sensible she'll leave

[Penguin16]

50ft?

 

[*Stormforce~beka*]

 swebby I can;t either!

[karyo]

Absolutely crazy rate of strengthening!

At least Milton is now moving east and hopefully it will start to track northeast which should just about spare the Yucatan from the worst impacts. 

[WeatherArc]

 swebby I think unique is an understatement for this Hurricane, this is the first Cat 5 to ever move in this direction, there have been i believe 3-4 Cat 4s that have also done this movement, so not the first major Hurricane but a very, very rare case.

 

[AderynCoch]

 Thunder Snow That's Katrina-level of intensity, though Milton is much smaller at the moment.

[AndyFromDonny]

Scary for Floridians this. I lived and worked in FL for a time and fear one day these areas will get a huge hit.A truly astonishing storm already and hopefully it does weaken as models suggest.

[WeatherArc]

Pressure falling off a cliff

And no signs of an imminent Eye Wall Replacement Cycle at the moment

I still cant believe Hurricane Hunters reported flocks of birds trapped in the eye.

 

Edited October 7, 2024 by WeatherArc

[matty40s]

 chilly milly

Apparently the queues for major rides were nonexistent the day Helene hit!! Just stick the rain mac on and the worlds her oyster.

[matty40s]

 swebby

There have only been 2 previously followed this path, 1920's and 1840something off the top of my head.

 

 

[matty40s]

Tampa.. 

Leave now!!

 

Edited October 7, 2024 by matty40s