The weather 100 years from now

[Weather Enthusiast91]

What do you think the weather will be like in the UK 100 years from now?

It will certainly be warmer and I think long periods of heavy rainfall will be more frequent along with subsequent flooding issues, particularly during autumn and winter. Unless you are on a high level, snow will be a thing of the past and you'd be lucky to have a hoar frost. Frequent short bursts of intense heat during the summer will be commonplace with 40°C being as possible to achieve as it is to achieve 35°C today.

[Freeze]

Who knows? There could be a cataclysmic event which causes the world to cool down by then, major volcano? Or it could be a warm damp mess.

[Don]

I doubt anyone will be snow chasing in this country by then?!

[emmett garland]

 Don  Don We will be hoping for something like the great 1899 freeze of north America when it snowed in miami and snowflakes were observed as far south as Cuba..Imagine..

[Ciarán]

Climate in London T+100yrs will be more like Porto as it is today. The worst case scenario would be like Lisbon, and the "best" case scenario would be like Seattle or San Francisco. Much drier summers and wetter winters. The biggest change will be the winter mildness, would not rule out 20°C becoming commonplace along the south coast during winter in like 2090s.

[sawan]

With the way the planet is heating up, it appears we’ll see more rainfall throughout the year, especially during winter. Summers may become cooler due to reduced sunlight, while winters are likely to be milder, influenced by the warmer surrounding waters.

[Summer8906]

South of England mean max in January around 10-12C, but summer mean maxima similar to now due to cloudiness so probably no more than 23-24C in July.

Autumn really silly wet due to the especially high SSTs at this time of year, with events such as what we had around the equinox and Tuesday just gone becoming much more frequent.

Winters stormy due to strong temp contrasts, but not nearly as wet as autumn in the south with a more northerly low track. Wet in the N and NW, though. Thinking of Feb 2022-type conditions.

Spring is driven less by SST, perhaps, and more by the contrast between warming continents and a still-cold Arctic. This contrast will presumably still be there, so one might guess spring will remain mostly blocked with most low formation in locations where Arctic and continental air meet, for example over central Europe rather than over the Atlantic where the temperature contrast is less marked. Thus still a high frequency of N-lies and NE-lies, and the best chance of settled weather across the whole year. Perhaps the only chance in the year for lowland southern snow, too!

Summer will probably see Atlantic airmasses warmer than now, so your typical W-ly or SW-ly day might be more like 23-24C than 20-21C. But on recent form perhaps higher SSTs will mean a more active Atlantic hence less settled weather, so incidences of really high temps of 30C+ will actually be less than now. But so will days below 20C. Low-to-mid 20s becoming the norm, but often cloudy.

 hailcore I'd be surprised to see much 20C in winter, other than in foehn-effect locations. Too much cloudiness I'd suspect, though probably a higher frequency of 15C dull drizzly days.

All guess work and I am not an expert, I may be completely wrong about some of the above.

Edited October 10, 2024 by Summer8906

[richie3846]

I think we can expect crippling humidity in our future climate, seeing as we are surrounded by sea. By that time, the arctic may be melted out for most of the year, with no chance of any cold weather as a result. Instead we'll have a very mild climate in winter, with periods of extreme heat and humidity combinations, the first hints of which we endured this summer, and the heatwave of August 2020. There were days this year which weren't particularly hot, but had dewpoints only a few C below the actual temperature. We can expect more of the same, but with higher temperatures, leading us into dangerous humid heatwaves which will force many to install air conditioning simply to stay alive. 

[Don]

 emmett garland I won’t be as I’ll be long gone!

[Don]

 richie3846 In a nutshell, it will be bloody awful, putting it lightly!  

[lassie23]

i am going for a tropical drizzle fest

[danm]

30 minutes ago, Don said:

In a nutshell, it will be bloody awful, putting it lightly!

If we moved to something more akin to a Barcelona climate in 100 years, that would be far from awful. But that's just our patch of the world. For other parts of the world it could indeed become fairly awful. 

[Pulpstar]

Cloudier, warmer, wetter.

There's an interesting point when carbon hits about 1200-1300 ppm though -

Extreme CO2 levels could trigger clouds ‘tipping point’ and 8C of global warming

WWW.CARBONBRIEF.ORG

---

If atmospheric CO2 levels exceed 1,200 parts per million (ppm), it could push the Earth’s climate over a “tipping point”, finds a new study. This would see clouds that shade large part of the oceans start to break up.

 

 

The end of stratocumulus

[Don]

 danm If we have a similar climate to Barcelona, then no, that won't be awful, but it could be much worse.  However, other parts of the world will likely be worse off as you say!

[raz.org.rain]

 danm there are suggestions we could achieve a Barcelona-like climate as soon as 2050.

Edited October 10, 2024 by raz.org.rain

[Weatherman_93]

Everyone using this forum currently will be dead.

[Fen Wolf]

 Weatherman_93 I’m gonna outlive it

[Catbrainz]

The climate here will increasingly be Iberianzied/Oreganized over the years. Global warming is firing up the subtropical ridge which means Bartletts will be more and more common. Assuming we avoid some sort of scary runaway global warming event and just stick to "moderate" (Yes those are sarcastic airqoutes) warming of say 3-4c warmer than present day I expect something like below for London in a 100 years.  Wetter in the October-Feb period for sure and drier in the Apr-Aug period but might stay similar annual rainfall wise (With certain areas becoming drier). If we do keep getting Bartletts even in the wetter half of the year that could nerf rainfall so difficult to tell. 

Jan 12/7 
Apr= 20/11
Jul= 28/17
Oct= 21/14


 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

 Don donald, deep winter will be like early Oct of today, northerlies only bringing snow to Scottish mountains

[Geordiesnow]

I would imagine in 100 years, summers will be warmer but not necessarily meaning more heatwaves as the jet stream could be more south shifted so keeping the UK more in the Atlantic air.

I would imagine Spring will be warmer alot sooner with any sort of southerly flow as the heat build up will be arriving sooner over Africa.

The big change for me will be during Autumn especially over the polar regions. We are already seeing the polar vortex struggling to form during September and early October and that is with a basin still with ice, imagine how much of a struggle it will be without ice and warmer SSTS up there which of course could eventually impact the winter months of a weaker PV during the winter months. We already see now how 850 temperatures struggle to get down much below -30hpa and the deep purples don't really exist as widely as past charts would seem to suggest. 

[sundog]

What about the potential shutdown of the AMOC? Wouldn't be getting warmer in this part of the world. Dryer with much colder winters could be a scenario 100 yrs from now.

[Don]

 I remember Atlantic 252 Maybe with a best case scenario?! 

 Geordiesnow there would be no cold to tap into.

[CryoraptorA303]

 sundog We simply have no idea what it'd entail aside from it'd get much drier year round and it'd be bad.

When younger dryas occurred, the glacial sheets were already much more expansive than today. It's quite plausible that if AMOC were to collapse, the northern hemisphere would rapidly deglaciate due to the dry winters and hot summers. The thermohaline circulation is a major part of the global carbon sequestration cycle, so if it were to collapse, it's likely that CO2 emissions would absolutely skyrocket and more than make up for any cooling effect.

Younger dryas is simply not an accurate model for a similar collapse in today's cryosphere.

3 hours ago, Geordiesnow said:

the jet stream could be more south shifted so keeping the UK more in the Atlantic air.

Very unlikely.

[CryoraptorA303]

 Don Some of us don't want to live in Barcelona's climate.

[CryoraptorA303]

3 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

northerlies only bringing snow to Scottish mountains

If that even. Were the northern hemisphere to completely deglaciate, northerlies would end up not much colder than any other Atlantic direction today.