NET ZERO - will this policy damage our economy?

[matty40s]

Net Zero in this country is a waste of time now, under Millibands control, and Trumps victory.

CO2 extraction systems, £20bn, one volcano blowing off for a day produces more than that can extract in a year. 

The 50 year projections are now pretty much superceded by the growing list of major disasters that are now affecting food export producing countries more, and in much greater strength and devastation.

Food shortages, starvation, water shortages and climate caused migration will be happening (already), from now onwards.

The UK only produces 53% of it's own food, we will be ignored when the crisis really gets going.

Economy...yeah.

[WYorksWeather]

 Midlands Ice Age The reason I went for 3-4C is that a new 'current policies' estimate came out, which is 3.1C. And given uncertainty around that figure, plus the fact that it can't take into account e.g. increased U.S. emissions to come most likely as a result of policies there, I think the worst-case risk has increased a bit.

Of course, economics does matter - if costs of green tech come down enough, maybe well under 3C and closer to 2C will happen, but I'm not holding my breath.

[WYorksWeather]

 matty40s I think the underestimated risk is the compound risk, which is non-linear. For example, a previous 1 in 100-year flood and 1 in 100-year heatwave would be unlikely to coincide. If those are now 1 in 10 years, then there would be the risk for example of an exceptional heatwave drying out the ground, followed by extreme flash flooding that the ground is too dry to absorb. Or vice versa, a major flood event cutting off power supplies, followed by a severe heatwave where no air conditioning is available.

These sorts of risks are very hard to measure, and some of them are probably unprecedented. I agree that we should probably assume that our projections are too optimistic, and over-prepare, rather than under-prepare.

[Sky Full]

 Midlands Ice Age   The present (and previous government’s) policy on climate change appears to me to be very like travelling in a car at 70mph towards a brick wall wall and applying the ineffective brakes too late, while deciding that seat belts are an unnecessary bother….  

[Methuselah]

Another step in the right direction:

Will new battery-powered trains replace diesel, and are they safe?

WWW.BBC.CO.UK

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Manufacturers see lithium power as the future of rail travel in the UK - but the trains could pose unique challenges.

 

[Sky Full]

 Methuselah   Maybe, but I’m uneasy about the risk of fire with lithium batteries,…

Whatever happened to MAGLEV which we were promised was the future for rail travel.  We’ve had enough time to develop it, haven’t we?
 

How Maglev Trains Work | HowStuffWorks

SCIENCE.HOWSTUFFWORKS.COM

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Magnetic levitation trains are becoming a popular transportation topic all around the globe. Learn about electromagnetic suspension, the most popular type of maglev train.

 

 

[Methuselah]

 Sky Full

Well, I've always thought that the decision to scrap the development of MagLev trains ridiculous -- a fine example of short-term thinking. That said, replacing all our railway tracks with linear motors, at this juncture, would be even dafter? 

[Midlands Ice Age]

On 10/11/2024 at 07:39, Sky Full said:

hange appears to me to be very like travelling in a car at 70mph towards a brick wall wall and applying the ineffective brakes too late, while deciding that seat belts are an unnecessary bother….

Has anyone else spotted the car-crash appearing before us in the last 10 days?

yep its my old favourite -  the energy production in the UK....

Over the last 10 days we have produced zero  (actually 0.5%) of our power from solar

We have had to produce nearly 80% of our power from gas.

Wind on some days has been below 10%, and only now has it got to 20%..

Thank the lord it has not been particularly cold and so we have sufficient gas (28GW) to get us through. The cold weather of Dec 2022 added on an extra 10GW, Where could we have got that from if it had been just 2weeks later?

Our 'friends' over the water Belgium, Netherlands and Ireland took power from the UK at peak times, only France remained to bail us out.

Yet the Miliband 'plan' is to remove all gas powered power stations by 2030.  

Absolute disaster until he agrees to install backup resources  (nuclear?), and that will take 10-15 years.   

This total domination by the extremists in charge, will lead to major problems ahead.

MIA

Edited November 11 by Midlands Ice Age

[Methuselah]

That's why tidal and nuclear power both need expansion. We all know that the sun doesn't always shine and winds do not always blow.

[Midlands Ice Age]

 Methuselah

But do the extremists (that Includes most governments ministers)?

MIA

Edited November 11 by Midlands Ice Age

[Methuselah]

 Midlands Ice Age

Extremists? However, I must admit that the likely members of Trump's inner circle are a tad worrying, to say the least.

[Midlands Ice Age]

 Methuselah

i am more concerned with 5 years time, - and not the decades following which is the only way they could/might  cause a problem.

I used the term extremist as a generic one, the intention was to allude to the fact that  MIlipede's only plan is the one being put forward by extinction crews, with less than  1% of the population. Even Trump has more support for his policies. 

MIA

 

[Sky Full]

 Methuselah   Well, we have the trackbeds, cuttings, embankments, bridges and tunnels all in place - all we need to do is change the track - but I admit it would be an expensive upgrade.  However, we also still need to generate the electricity to run them and as MIA points out, we don’t really even have a sufficiently reliable source of UK based electricity generation any more so maybe the trains will have to run on batteries?  Doesn’t matter to me because I can’t afford to take the train anywhere these days - ticket prices are beyond my budget - but the drivers are getting paid a living wage at last, so at least their families can travel by train….

[Sky Full]

Todays headline:

“Gas boilers to be banned in new homes by 2027   -  Developers to ensure new-builds only fitted with electric heat pumps or non-gas alternatives”

So this is considered sane policy - forcing out a tried and tested form of heating for which there are sufficient reserves of gas for several decades and bringing in another electricity based one instead BEFORE establishing the new generating capacity to provide the extra electricity.  Of course it’s sensible to phase out gas as a heating fuel as soon as possible but once again I question the economic wisdom of bringing in a policy like this before the country is capable of producing the necessary power in-house in all weathers and at night.  Otherwise we continue to rely on electricity connectors from other countries which may well find that they need their generating capacity themselves when demand is at a maximum.    

[Sky Full]

At COP29 the PM has pledged to cut UK emissions by 81%  - oddly not 80% or even 82% but exactly 81% - by 2025.  I am not sure on what year’s emissions the 81% is to be based but it’s a pretty ambitious target to reach in 10 years.   Clearly the cuts in gas powered electricity generation, the banning of all new gas boilers after 2027 and the forced introduction of electric cars will all help to bring down emissions in the UK but someone somewhere has to generate all the power which will still be needed to run our industries and heat our homes.  Maybe the proposed electricity cable from Morocco (!) will help to stabilise our supplies but if he’s relying on buying nuclear generated electricity from France then we must hope France continues to have a surplus of domestically generated power.

[Methuselah]

 Sky Full

If only the previous government had done something useful, instead of wibbling over Brexit, we might have enough charging points -- the new administration can hardly be expected to build the necessary infrastructure overnight! 

[Matty88]

Unfortunately and what we are seeing with COP29 and so on is profiteering and economical control in the name of climate change, rather than anything good. 
 

Even if the whole of the nation drove EV’s this wouldn’t be good enough, we would still all be guilt tripped into paying more! 
 

Climate change is happening - man made or not, but don’t get sucked in to the associated corperate greed and guilt tripping.  
 

[Sky Full]

 Methuselah   Well, they’ve given themselves 10 years to do it and I just hope they understand what a huge task they’ve set for themselves and what effect it will have on the rest of us.  My concern really is that I don’t believe there is any point in setting these almost meaningless targets to cut emissions here in the UK as long as none of the other much more serious CO2 emitting countries are pulling their weight.  I strongly feel we should instead put all our efforts into preparing this country for what is now inevitable - more extreme weather events, more heatwaves, more storms and in due course higher sea levels.  Our priorities should be generating our own electricity, producing our own food, and protecting our transport and industrial infrastructure, because there’s no point being able to boast that our emissions are the lowest in the western world if the lights have gone out and coastal cities are under water.

[cheeky_monkey]

 Sky Full it has taken the UK 40 years to cut emissions by 50% how does he propose to cut the current emissions by 81% in a year??

[CharlieBear9]

 Methuselah If only so many people hadn't attempted to delay and/or block it, and wasted such a lot of parliamentary time.

Edited November 12 by CharlieBear9

[Sky Full]

This is copied from my newspaper this morning…..

“All countries will have to produce a new target next year as part of the UN process, but the UK has moved early as Sir Keir seeks to promote the country as a climate leader in the face of growing scepticism within Europe and from the incoming Trump administration.

In his speech at the summit in Baku on Tuesday, Sir Keir said that his Government was “restoring our role as a climate leader on the world stage”.”

This appears to me to be nothing more than virtue signalling to the rest of the world, imposing targets which are impressive certainly but likely to be unattainable, and which will almost certainly be ineffective.  I don’t think any action taken by the UK alone will persuade any other country that they should be ‘trying harder’ and until the USA, China, India and Russia set the same ambitious targets there will be no meaningful reductions in global emissions.

CO2 Emissions by Country - Worldometer

WWW.WORLDOMETERS.INFO

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Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Emissions by Country in the world with Global share of CO2 greenhouse emissions by country

 So it’s not going to happen, and we need to give priority to preparing ourselves for future changes in our climate.   Before it’s too late.

Edited November 13 by Sky Full

[jonboy]

81% 0f 1990 levels by 2035. Not current levels by next year.

[CharlieBear9]

Must have been uncomfortable for some of the Cop29 attendees when host, President Aliyev of Azerbaijan, opened proceedings by saying that "fossil fuels were a gift from God". Then, in a closing address, Edi Rama, Prime Minister of Albania injected a dose of reality, asking “What does it mean for the future of the world if the biggest polluters continue as usual?”. Something for the delegates to ponder as they all prepared to jet off.

[cheeky_monkey]

 Sky Full lets be honest the rest of the world don't give a sheet what Starmer says 

[CharlieBear9]

As the British government could afford to send more delegates (470) including Foreign Secretary David Lammy and his videographer, than any other country to the COP29 event, one could conclude that the economy must be in the rudest of health already.