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November 2024 C.E.T. and EWP contests -- final month of the 2023-24 competitions


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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

This month is the final stage of the 2023-2024 competition year. CET November historical information in part 1 below, EWP in part two. Good luck !!

(a) C.E.T. forecast competition -- averages and extremes for November

(note: data adjusted to v2.1.0 CET)

Recent 43 months 1981-2023 are shown in three groups, mildest (bold), median (italics) and coldest (underlined). The ties mentioned are in one decimal values from v2.1.0, but the table recognizes ranks based on two decimals not shown (after 2nd, 4th)

15.5 ... warmest day (5th, 1938)

14.4 ... warmest day in second half (22nd, 1947)

 9.9 ... warmest Nov 1994

 9.5 ... second warmest Nov 2011

 9.5 ... third warmest (by second decimal) Nov 1818 

 9.5 ... fourth warmest (by second decimal) Nov 2015 

 9.4 ... fifth warmest Nov 1938

 9.3 ... sixth warmest Nov 1743

 9.2 ... seventh warmest Nov 1730

 9.1 ... tied eighth warmest Nov 1817 and 2022

 8.9 ... tenth warmest Nov 1881 

 8.7 ... eleventh warmest Nov 1939

 8.6 ... tied 12th warmest Nov 2009, 2014 (with 1821)

 8.5 ... tied 15th warmest Nov 2020 (with 1899, 1951, 1953)

 8.4 ... tied 19th warmest Nov 2002 (with 1913)

 8.3 ... tied 21st warmest Nov  2018 (with 1978)

 8.2 ... tied 23rd warmest Nov 1997 (with 1822 and 1963) 

 8.1 ... tied 26th warmest 1729, 1946

 8.0 ... tied 28th warmest Nov 2003, 2006 (with 1661, 1710)

 7.9 ... most recent 1894 (tied 1847, 1852) ... pre-1980 ties not cited below

 7.8 ... most recent 1931

 7.7 ...  1982,  1984, 1999

 7.6 ...  1981, 1986, 2004 

 7.5 ...  1995, 2001  ... ... ... ---- average of 1994-2023 ----

 7.4 ...  2023 ... ... ... ... ...... ---- average of 2001-2023 ---- 

 7.3 ...  1983, 2007 ... ... ..... ---- average of 1991-2020 ---- 

 7.2 ... 1992, 2021 ... ... ... ...

 7.1 ... most recent 1959... ... ... ... ... ... ... 

 7.0 ...  2008 ... ... ... ... ... ---- average of 1981-2010 ----

 6.9 ... most recent 1954 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 

 6.8 ...  2000, 2012, 2017 ... ... 

 6.7 ...  1990 ... ... ... ... ---- average of 1971-2000 ---- 

 6.6 ...  1991 ... ... ... ... ... ... ......  

 6.5 ... most recent 1979 ... ... ... ... ... ...... 

 6.4 ... most recent 1957 ... ... ... ---- average of 1961-1990, 1901-2000 ----

 6.3 ... 1987 ... ... ...

 6.2 ... 2019 ... ... 

 6.1 ... 20052013 ... ... ... ... ... ---- average of all years 1659-2022 ---- (6.08)

 6.0 ... 19891998 ... ...

 5.9 ... most recent 1926 ... ... ......  ---- average of 1801-1900 ----

 5.8 ... most recent 1883 ... ... ......   ---- average of 1701-1800 ----

 5.7 ... 1996

 5.6 ... most recent 1966 ... ... ... ...  ---- average of 1659-1700 ----

 5.5 ... 2016 ... ... 

 5.4 ... most recent 1969 ... 5.3 most recent 1884 ... 5.2 most recent 1904

 5.1 ... 2010 ... ...

 5.0 ... 1988 ... ... 

 4.9 ... most recent 1942 ... 4.8 most recent 1909 ... 4.7 most recent 1870 ... 4.6 most recent 1921 ... 4.5 most recent 1965

 4.4 ... 1993 ... ... 

 4.3 most recent 1896 ... 4.2 1861 and 1952 ... 4.1 1819 and 1879 ... 4.0 1688, 97, 98 and 1750

 3.9 .... tied 21st coldest 1705, 1756, 1765, 1816

 3.8 ... coldest in recent years 1985 (20th coldest)

 3.7 (19) 1739 ... 3.6 (18) 1925 ... 3.5 (t15) 1676, 1679, 1878 ... 3.4 (t13) 1815, 1871

 3.3 .... tied eighth coldest 1740, 1746, 1786, 1919, 1923

 3.2 .... tied sixth coldest 1862 with 1910

 3.1 .... fifth coldest Nov 1851

 3.0 .... fourth coldest Nov 1684

 2.9 .... third coldest Nov 1807

 2.8 .... second coldest Nov 1915

 2.3 .... coldest Nov 1782

--0.6 ... earliest sub-zero mean (7th, 1791)

--2.1 ... coldest in first half (15th, 1965)

--4.0 ... coldest day (28th, 2010) 
__________________________________________________

 

Enter your CET forecast by Thursday, October 31st at midnight, or with increasing late penalties on the first three days of November.

===============================================================================

(b) E.W.P. forecast contest -- November 2023

__ contest is scored using Hadley EWP data __

__ winter month snowfall is converted by liquid equivalent, roughly 10:1 reduction factor, e.g. 10 cm snow = 10 mm precip __

 

202.5 mm __ 1852 _ wettest 1766-2023 ... also second wettest month to Oct 1903

200.8 mm __ 1770 _ 2nd wettest ... also third wettest month overall

196.5 mm __ 1940 _ wettest of 20th century... 1929 had 195.9 mm

192.1 mm __ 2009 _ wettest since 1981

110.2 mm __ 1925-54 highest 30-year average for Nov

106.4 mm __ mean for 1994-2023

106.1 mm __ mean for 1991-2020 

100.4 mm __ mean for 1981-2010

 93.9 mm __ mean for all data 1766-2023 

 76.9 mm __ 1845-74 lowest 30-year average for Nov

 41.9 mm __ 2021 _ driest since 1981 

 23.1 mm ___1805 _  second driest 1766-2023

 17.0 mm ___1945 _ driest 1766-2023

___________________________ ** __________________________

Recent November EWP  ...  

2023_ 127.1mm ... 2022 _159.0mm ... ... 2021 _ 41.9mm ... ... 2020 _ 67.9mm ... ... 2019 _ 138.1mm

2018 _ 104.9 ... ... 2017 _ 81.0 ... ... 2016 _ 116.6 ... ... 2015 _ 126.7 ... ... 2014 _ 126.8 ... ... 2013 _ 79.2

2012 _ 135.8 ... ... 2011 _ 52.9 ... ... 2010 _ 97.5 ... ... 2009 _ 192.1 ... ... 2008 _ 94.0 ... ... 2007 _ 80.9

2006 _ 108.6 ... ... 2005 _ 86.1 ... ... 2004 _ 52.8 ... ... 2003 _ 116.6 ... ... 2002 _ 176.2 ... ... 2001 _ 65.0

>>> Enter your EWP forecast in mm with your CET forecast, same deadlines 

Good luck in this final contest of the current competition year. 

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Posted
  • Location: Comrie, Perthshire, Bonnie Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: bright & frosty/snowy; summer: hot and sunny.
  • Location: Comrie, Perthshire, Bonnie Scotland

7.0°C and 72.2mm for me please.

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Posted
  • Location: Marske by the sea
  • Weather Preferences: Summer/Winter
  • Location: Marske by the sea

7.6c and  121.6 mm 

thanks 

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Posted
  • Location: Bristol, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Cold weather and snow in winter.
  • Location: Bristol, UK

"When I look into your eyes, I can see a love restrained....*cue angelic aaaah*"

7.1c and 86mm

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Posted
  • Location: West Yorkshire
  • Location: West Yorkshire

Missed the thread opening, but here are my usual charts going back to when daily data becomes available, this time for CET Novembers.

image.thumb.png.4cf099deeb9b4f506a0d1ec71e7de1a1.png

Overall, one of the months with a very clear and fairly uninteresting trend - some peaks and troughs, then a more substantial rise in recent years. A distinct lack of cold Novembers with CET below 5C in recent years, in fact none since 1993. As a random trivia fact, that relatively cold November was then followed by 1994, which holds the record at 9.9C.

Anyway, probably a bad bet to go below 5C given recent history, but with high values very much sky is the limit - we saw a 9.7C December of course in 2015, so I would not be surprised to see a double-digit November sometime soon.

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Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL

7.4C with 105 mms please

 

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Posted
  • Location: Dwyrain Sir Gâr / Eastern Carmarthenshire 178m abs
  • Location: Dwyrain Sir Gâr / Eastern Carmarthenshire 178m abs

5.1 

 

64mm

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

8.3C and 105mm please, Roger.

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Posted
  • Location: Delph, historic West Riding of Yorkshire, 225m asl
  • Weather Preferences: All 4 seasons and a good mixture of everything and anything!
  • Location: Delph, historic West Riding of Yorkshire, 225m asl

Will go for dead on 9. 

9.0 - which has apparently never happened before. 110m

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Posted
  • Location: Trowbridge, Wilts
  • Weather Preferences: hot summers; frigid winters; golden fall; bright spring
  • Location: Trowbridge, Wilts

9.3C and 102.3mm for me please.

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)

 Cymro 

Your 5.1c was the ledge 2010 cet…..never say never, but I can’t see that this November…..I’d loved to be wrong though 🤭

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Posted
  • Location: Dwyrain Sir Gâr / Eastern Carmarthenshire 178m abs
  • Location: Dwyrain Sir Gâr / Eastern Carmarthenshire 178m abs

 Dancerwithwings it was indeed! I've a funny feeethis year that November will be cold, nothing scientific just a feeling 🤣

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire

I haven't a clue how November will turn out at this stage?!

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)

 Don  I’m gonna wait until the 31st October before I submit my guess ….because my thoughts are the same as yours 😉

Edited by Dancerwithwings
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Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft

7.1c ....55mm

Edited by stewfox
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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Going for 8.4C and 60mm of rain.

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District. 290 mts a.s.l.
  • Weather Preferences: Anything extreme
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District. 290 mts a.s.l.

Haven't attempted this for ages.  6.9c and 82.4 mm is my wild guess.

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

8.1c and 84mm please. 

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Posted
  • Location: Dwyrain Sir Gâr / Eastern Carmarthenshire 178m abs
  • Location: Dwyrain Sir Gâr / Eastern Carmarthenshire 178m abs

I would like to revisit my 5.1 and change it to 6.4,

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

7.1C, 138mm

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: West Yorkshire
  • Location: West Yorkshire

Going for an exceptionally mild and very dry first half, then a moderately mild and fairly wet second half. Overall, I'll go with 9.2C and 90mm.

I may change this before the deadline if there's any change in modelling of the middle of November.

Edited by WYorksWeather
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