November 2024 C.E.T. and EWP contests -- final month of the 2023-24 competitions

[Dancerwithwings]

 J10

[Roger J Smith]

 summer blizzard And now in corrected version your very accurate NOV forecast took you up to 16th, so even better. 

General note, EWP scoring will be updated by late Thursday or early Friday, and eventually I will post a summary of ranks in both contests. 

 

[summer blizzard]

Excellent, upgraded to 14th for those who entered all 12 months.

[Roger J Smith]

Report on Consensus and Normals scoring Dec 2023 to Nov 2024

 

Consensus 

MON _ DEC_JAN_FEB_MAR_APR_MAY_ JUN_ JUL_ AUG_ SEP_ OCT_NOV __ avg-abs __ bias

CET ___ 4.8 _4.2 _5.7 __7.2__9.4 _12.8 _15.5 _17.1_17.1_15.2_10.9_ 8.3 

Error _ -2.2_-0.5_-2.1 _-0.9 _-0.2 _-1.3 _+1.5 _+0.8_+0.1_+1.2 _-0.6_+1.1 __1.04 ____ -0.26 C^

rank __ 29 __14 __ 28 __25 __12 __ 27 __33 __ 27 __ 04 __ 31 __ 25 __ 26 ___ 23.4 

(ent) __ 59 __ 68 __ 61 __54 __59 __59 _ 63 __ 63 ___62 __ 61 __ 64 __ 60 ___ 61.1 

^ i.e., average abs con error was 1.04 C, average error of -0.26 = we were on average 0.26 below actual.

 

EWP __ 88.0_81.0_75.0_ 78.0_ 96.5_65.0_ 72.0_ 68.0_ 73.0 _61.7_115.5  _64.5

Error _-73.3 -16.2 -76.3 -33.5 +1.1 -26.3 +38.2 -21.4_+24.2_-92.1_+13.0_-21.2 __ 36.4 ___ -30.0^

rank __ 27.0_25.0 _28.0_27.0 _ 2.0 _27.0_ 28 __ 25 __ 29 __ 28.5 _ 21 _ 24.5 __  25.0 

(ent) ___ 53 __ 63 __ 56 __ 49 __ 53 __ 53 __57__ 57 _  57 __ 56 __ 58 __ 54 ____ 55.5 

^ average abs error for EWP was 36.4 and bias (average error) was -30.0, i.e., our average forecast was 30 mm below actual ... we were above the actual in 4 of 12 cases but only by small differentials, some of our "too low" group efforts were way too low, notably DEC, FEB, and SEP. 

 

1991-2020

MON _ DEC_ JAN_FEB_MAR_APR_MAY_ JUN_ JUL_ AUG_ SEP_ OCT_ NOV __ avg-abs ___ bias

CET ___ 4.8 __ 4.7 _ 5.0 _ 7.0 _9.0_11.9_14.6_16.8 _16.7 _14.2 _10.8 _ 7.3  -- -- 

Error __-2.2 __0.0 _-2.8_-1.1 _-0.6_-2.2_+0.6_+0.5_ -0.3_ +0.2 _ -0.7 _ +0.1 _ 0.94 _____ -0.71 C^

Rank __ 29 ___ 01 __ 44 _ 40 _ 30 _ 48 __ 12 __ 15 __ 19 __ 02 __ 29 ___ 1 ___ 22.5 

(ent) __ 59 ___ 68 __ 61 __54 _ 59 _ 59 __ 63 __ 63 __ 62 __ 61 __ 64 __ 60 ___ 61.1 

^ average in contest year was 0.71 above 1991-2020 averages.

 

EWP __103.6_94.2_72.4_ 65.4_63.2_ 62.7_70.5_ 72.0__82.3_76.0 _102.9 _ 106.1

Error_-57.7_-3.0_-78.9_-46.1_-32.2_-28.6_+36.7_-17.4_+33.5_-77.4__+0.4 _ +20.4 ___ 36.0

Rank __19.3_ 5.8_ 33.4_ 41.2_ 42.9_ 30.7 _ 26.0_ 20.0 _ 39.1__10.7 __ 1.0 _ 23.5 __ 25.1

(ent) ____ 53 __63 __56 __49 __ 53 __ 53 ___ 57 ___ 57 __ 57 ___ 56 ___ 58 __ 54 ____ 55.5

 

 

1993-2022 (Dec) 1994-2023 (Jan -Nov)  

MON _ DEC_JAN_FEB_MAR_APR_ MAY_ JUN_ JUL_ AUG_ SEP_ OCT_NOV avg-abs ____ bias

CET ____4.9__4.7__5.2__7.0__8.9_11.9__14.8_16.9_16.8_14.4 _ 11.0_ 7.5 

Error__ -2.1__0.0_ -2.6_ -1.1_-0.7_ -2.2_+0.8_+0.6 _-0.2_+0.4 _ -0.5 _+0.3 __0.96 ____ -0.61^

rank ___ 27 __01 __41 __ 40 __31 __ 48 _ 16 _ 20 __ 12 __ 4 __ 19 ___ 7 ____ 24.2 

(ent) ___ 59 __68 __61 __ 54 __59 __ 59 __63 _ 63 __ 62 _ 61 __64 __ 60 ___ 61.1 

^ average in contest year was 0.61 above 1994-2023 averages (1993-2022 Dec)

 

EWP __ 106.3 _81.0_75.0_67.3_59.2_65.1_68.9_ 72.0 _81.0_75.0 _109.0 _106.4  

Error _ -55.0 -16.2 -76.3 -44.2 -36.2 -26.2 +35.1_-17.4_+32.2_-78.3_+6.5 _+20.7 ___ 36.7

rank ___17.6_ 25.0_28.0_27.0_49.1_ 26.9 _ 25.7__ 20 _ 37.7 __ 11 __ 7 __ 23.8 ___ 25.0

(ent) ___ 53 __ 63 __ 56 __ 49 __ 53 __ 53 __ 57____ 57 __ 57 ___ 56 __58 __ 54 ____ 55.5 

 

1981-2010

MON _ DEC_JAN_FEB_MAR_APR_MAY_ JUN_ JUL_ AUG_ SEP_ OCT_NOV __ avg-abs ___ bias

CET ___4.5_4.4_ 4.4_ 6.6 _8.5 _11.7 _14.4 _16.6 _16.5_14.0 _ 10.6 _ 7.0 

Error__-2.2_-0.3_-3.4_-1.5_-1.1_-2.4 _+0.4_+0.3 _-0.5 _ 0.0 _ -0.9 __-0.2 ___ 1.10 ____ -0.98^

Rank __ 32 __ 8.0 _ 53 __43__42 _ 53 __ 8 ___ 9 __ 33 __ 01 __ 34 __ 4  ____ 26.6

(ent) ___ 59 __68__ 61__ 54 __59__59__63 _ 63 __ 62 __ 61 __ 64 __ 60 ___  61.1 

^ average in contest year was 0.98 above 1981-2010 averages.

 

EWP ___ 97.4 _93.0_66.5__71.5_64.8 _63,6__66.3_67.3 _75.6_77.2_104.1_100.4

Error __-63.9 -4.2 -84.8 -40.0 -30.6 -27.7 +32.5 _-22.1_+26.8_-76.6_+1.6 _+14.3 ___ 36.3 

Rank __ 22.4_ 5.8 _37.0 _36.2_42.1_30.2_ 25.3 _ 27.3 __ 33.3 _10.1 __ 3 __ 17.5 ___  25.7 

(ent) ___ 53 __ 63 __ 56 __ 49 __ 53 __ 53 __ 57___ 57 ___ 57 ___ 56 __ 58 __ 54 ____ 55.5

=============

ANALYSIS

For contest year, our consensus was not really distinct from recent normals for CET forecasts, faring a bit better compared to 1981-2010. For EWP, our consensus was also no real improvement over any past averages (even longest-term "all data" not included above), but all were better than most of the forecast field. In general, consensus and normals are more "skilled" at EWP than at CET, or alternatively, we were relatively skilled at temperature forecasting vs precip forecasting in the contest year.

"Bias" is a measure of average departure rather than absolute average error. The distribution of errors made it difficult to find any overall strategy to improve on using 1994-2023 data. The second half of the contest year tended to run cooler than the first half, relative to all normals considered. The best EWP strategy for the previous contest year was to take 150% of normal, and the trend this year was to reduce that progressively to a value near 75% but any such strategy could lead to a  more variable scoring result albeit with a better final outcome.   

--------------------------

EWP in NOV 85.7 mm ... very close to 259-yr median of 87.9. 

 

Edited December 5, 2024 by Roger J Smith

[Roger J Smith]

Final Standings for EWP contest

Table is somewhat reorganized from previous monthly reports. All annual scoring data appears first, then Nov scoring, then four seasonal scoring reports, left blank if forecaster did not enter any months. As with Oct, non-entrants in Nov are assessed an error of consensus + 20 mm (34.9 mm). 

* symbol(s) after annual points indicate number of missed forecasts up to 3. 

^ symbol(s) after annual points indicate four missed forecasts. ^** would be read as 6 missed. ... ^^* would be read as 9 missed (etc).

... For autumn ranks only, those who did not enter all three have a notation of 2/3 or 1/3. 

_ Nov scoring based on EWP of 85.7 mm _ 

_ Nov scores with ^ are one day late, ranks may drop relative to scoring levels.

 

Annual contest data ______________________________________________ Nov results _______ seasonal ranks (points, avg err)

Rank (prev) _FORECASTER____annual pts__avg err__rank (prev)__ [] _ fcst_ rank_ points _ winter_spring_summer_autumn 

 

_01_01 ___methuselah_______ 85.13 ____ 30.61 mm _ 3 _ (2) ... ...[] _ 57.0 _ 35 _ 3.80 ____[20, 28] _[3, 5] _[4, 6] _[6, 9]

_02_03 ___Feb1991blizzard __84.03 ____ 28.93 mm _ 1 _ (3) ... ... [] _ 85.0 __ 2 _ 9.83 ____ [9, 9] _[13, 17] [12.t13] [1,1]

_03_05 ___DR(S)NO __________81.74 ____ 30.41 mm _ 2 _ (5) ... ... [] _ 90.0 _ 6 _ 9.15 ____[10,15] _[8, 9] [20, 20] _[3, 3]

_04_02 ___Jeff C _____________ 80.27 ____ 31.31 mm _ 6 _ (4) ... ... [] _105.0 _ 24 _ 5.96____ [2, 8] [16.t18.] [23,t36]_[4, 4]

_05_09 ___godber 1 _________ 73.95*____30.84 mm _ 4 _ (6) ... ... [] _ 77.0 _ 13 _ 8.02 ____ [6, 5] [53, 48] [1, 4] _[5, t7] 

_06_04 ___summer18 _______73.61*____31.20 mm _ 5 _ (1) ... ... []  -- -- -- _ -- -- _ --- _____ [3, 2] _[5, 3] [50,t54] _[18,t12]_2/3

_07_15 ___Reef ______________71.47 ____ 34.06 mm_11 _(14) ..... [] _ 77.5 _ 11 _ 8.30 ____ [22, 29] [27,t27] [6, 7] [11,14] 

_08_11 ___Mr Maunder ______71.39 ____ 35.69 mm_t14_(11) ... ..[] _ 51.0 _ 41 _ 2.60 ____ [23, 33] [2. 4] [52,t57]_[ 7, t3] 

_09_07 ___stewfox  __________71.32 ____ 32.74 mm _ 8 _ (7) ... ... [] _ 55.0 _ 36 _ 3.60 ____ [16, 4] [20,33]_[8,10]_[23,t22]

_10_08 ___ J 10 ______________70.92 ____ 32.72 mm _ 7 _ (8.) ... ...[] _ 60.0 _ 33 _ 4.10^____[4, 6] [26,t30] [28,t36]_[13, t6]

_11_13 ___Don ______________70.76 ____ 33.41 mm _ 9 _ (9) ... ... [] _ 99.0 _ 17 _ 7.22 _____[8, 7] [30, 34] [9 ,t13] _[30, 32]

(11.2)(11.9)___Consensus ____70.68 ____ 36.42 mm_17.6_(20.8) .[] _64.5 _24.5_5.87 __ [22.7, 30.5][8.3,11.9][20.5,30.3]_[17.3,20.1]

_12_12 ___February1978 _____70.44 ____ 35.01 mm_ 13_ (17) ... ..[] _ 71.0 _ 20 _ 6.68 ____ [11, 11][21,t25][21,33] _[20,21] 

(12.5)(15.1) _1994-2023 average_68.86____ 35.94 mm _ 18.3_(21.6).. ... [] _106.4_25.0_5.78 ___[6.6,12.2] [47.5,50.9] [21.2,30.9] [12.3,12.4]

(12.7)(21.7) __ average all data __ 68.02 ____ 37.54 mm _ 24.7 (41.4) ... ..[] _ 93.9 _ 11.0_ 8.30 __ [25.9,43.8] [52.7,50.6] [12.3,24.2] [1.1, 2.3] 

(12.8)(16.9)___1981-2010 average_ 67.99 ___35.49 mm__17.5 (21.7) ...[] _ 100.4 _20.0 _ 6.68 ___ [17.6, 22.8][45.0, 48.5][26.1, 24.9][ 3.2, 4.2]

(12.8)(17.9) __1991-2020 average _67.99 ___ 36.09 mm_ 19.1_(27.2) ... [] _106.1_23.5 _6.05 ___ [11.4,14.9] [47.9,51.0] [23.0,32.8]_[ 6.9,8.2]

_13_10 ___dancerwithwings __ 67.61 ____ 38.76 mm _ 25_ (22) ... .[] _ 45.0 _ 44 _ 2.00 ____ [21,36][12,12][17, t26]_[31,36]

_14_11 ___Emmett Garland ___66.90 ____ 36.91 mm _20 _(16) ... ...[] _ 44.0 _ 45 _ 1.80 ____ [17,23] [24,32] [2, 1] _[42,t44]

_15_18 ___weatherforducks ___66.76*____ 34.81 mm_ 12 _(15)... ..[] _100.0 _ 19 _ 6.86 ____[44,38] [18,t21] _[7, 9] _[21,20]

_16_14 ___Stationary Front ___ 66.29 ____ 37.53 mm _ 21 _(21)... ..[] _ 52.0 _ 40 _ 2.80 ____ [47,61]_[4. 6] _[31,41] _[ 8, t3]

_17_19 ___Mulzy _____________ 65.88 ____ 36.78 mm_ 18_ (24) ... ..[] _ 75.0 _ 16 _ 7.48 ____ [32, t46] [12,14] [19,17]_[19,t18] 

_18_20 ___Weather26 ________ 65.69**___33.89 mm __10 _(12) ... ..[] _ 75.0 _ 14 _ 7.58 _____ [5,16] [42,24] [33,19]_[ 9,t12] 

_19_16 ___snowray ___________65.56 ____ 36.03 mm _ 16_(18) ... ...[] _ 59.0 _ 34 _ 4.00 ____ [13,12][38, 44][24, 32] _[15,16]

_20_21 ___Polar Gael _________ 64.69 ____ 39.51 mm _ 27 _(31) ... ..[] _ 72.2 _18 _ 7.04 ____ [25,31][19, 41][36, 49] _[10,12] 

_21_22 ___Midlands Ice Age____63.26 ____ 37.69 mm _ 22 _ (24) ... .[] _ 65.0 _ 25 _ 5.78 ____ [37,41][14,10][27,t36] _[19,17] 

_22_17 ___Roger J Smith ______ 62.85 ____ 36.08 mm _17 _ (10) ... ..[] _ 43.5 _ 46 _ 1.60 ____ [33,29][15,13][14,12] _[32,34]

_23_25__I remember Atlantic252_ 61.38 _____43.63 mm_ 63 _ (84) ... ..[] _ 96.0 _ 13 _ 7.94 ____ [19,18][25,37][47,62]_[23,52]

_24_29 ___SteveB _____________60.21 ____ 36.90 mm _ 19 _ (27)... ..[] _ 84.0 __ 3 _ 9.66 ____ [35,58 ][39, 8.][40,46]_[ 2, 2]

_25_30 ___syed2878 __________58.99 _____44.69 mm _76 _ (86) ... ..[] _ 80.0 __ 8 _ 8.88 ____ [72,73][1. 1][43, 56] _[12,13]

_26_32 ___rwtwm ____________ 58.16 ____ 40.11 mm _ 30 _ (49) ... .[] _ 80.0 __ 7 __ 8.98 ____ [38,52] [23,t25] [34,42]_[21, t18]

_27_23 ___Frigid ______________57.98 ____ 35.69 mm _t13 _ (12) ... .[] _ 55.0 _ 37 _ 3.50  ____  [7, 1][46,50] [11,11] _[45,44]

_28_26 ___WYorksWeather____57.09 ____ 40.26 mm _ 31 _ (30)... ..[] _ 60.0 _ 32 _ 4.50 ____ [12,17] [52,57] [15,15] _[34,33]

_29_36 ___jonboy ____________ 55.82 ____ 41.57 mm_  39 _ (65) ... ..[] _ 77.0 __12 _ 8.12 ____ [18,t26] [37,44] [44,t54]_[30,31]

_30_31___virtualsphere _______54.78 ____ 44.14 mm _ 71 _ (79) ... ..[] _ 64.0 _ 28 _ 5.20^___ [24,22] [7, 7] [58,64] _[33,38]

_31_24 ___Addicks Fan 81 ____ 54.13*____40.54 mm _ 33_ (26) ... ...[] _ 35.0 _ 51 _ 0.60 ____ [40,t26] [ 9,11][25,40][49,t49]

_32_28 ___Metwatch _________ 53.70 ____ 40.03 mm _ 29_ (28) ... ... [] _ 47.5 _ 43 _ 2.20 ____ [14,13][35,40][18,18]_[57,56]

_33_27 ___Let It Snow! _______ 52.35 ____ 42.16 mm _ 44_ (32) ... ... [] _ 38.0 _ 49 _ 0.80 ____ [30,t20] [29,43] [t45,23] _[52,58]

_34_34 ____daniel* __________ 51.87 ____ 42.59 mm _t51 _ (53) ... .. [] _ 55.0 _ 39 _ 3.30 ____ [42,60] [33,39] [32,34] _[28,t22]

_35_33 ___seaside60 _________49.62 ____ 43.11 mm _t58_ (50) ... ... [] _ 42.0 _ 48 _ 0.90^____ [43,t54] [10, 9] [39,t51]_ [47,42]

_36_39 ____The PIT ___________48.96 ____ 46.01 mm _ 83_ (85) ... ... [] _ 60.0 _ 31 _ 4.60 ____ [27,t48][34,46][t45,60]_[38,39]

_37_35 ____Leo97t ___________ 48.77 ____ 45.32 mm _ 82 _ (69) ... ...[] _ 40.0 _ 50 _ 0.70^____ [50,67][36,47][5, 8] _[50,49]

_38_37 ____davehsug _________48.57 ____ 45.11 mm _ 74_ (62) ... ... [] _ 43.0 _ 47 _ 1.40 ____ [34,43] [17,16] [35,45]_[55,57]

_39_42 ____Neil N _____________48.18*____45.69 mm _83 _ (89)... ... [] _ 86.0 __ 1 _10.00 ____ [70,72] [54.56] [3, 3] _[16,29] 

_40_40___chilly milly _________ 47.62*____42.94 mm _ 57 _ (80) ... .. [] _ 79.0 __10 _ 8.47 ____ [15,14] [40,29] [62.63]_[29,t22]

_41_38 ___summer blizzard___ 46.18____ 45.73 mm _ 85 _ (70) ... ... [] _138.0 _ 53 _0.17 ____ [28,51][49,54][26,31]_[40,48]

_42_41 ___Bobd29 ____________ 45.17*____43.99 mm _ 68_ (81) ... ...[] _102.3 _22 _ 6.32 ____ [48,65] [50,52] [38,30] _[20,26]

_43_45 ___Weather Observer___43.32 ____ 46.35 mm _ 89_ (92) ... ...[] _ 89.0 __ 5 _ 9.32 _____ [57,69] [31,36] [29,t43] _[41,40]

_44_43 ___ summer shower____41.22*____52.19 mm _ 94 _ (93) ... ...[]  _ 55.0 _ 37 _ 3.60 _____[53,70] [45,53] [10,16]_[56,62]

_45_44 ___KirkcaldyWeather ___39.63^____40.87 mm _ 36 _ (42) ... ...[] _ 63.4 _ 27 _ 5.40 _____ [26,19] [43,42] [61,59]_[39,28]_2/3

_46_50 ___Johnb88 ____________ 37.08^*__ 40.33 mm _ 32 _ (37) ... ...[] _ 69.0 _ 22 _ 6.14 _____ [49,t48][--- ---][38, 4]__ [27,27]

_47_46 ___sunny_vale _________ 33.92^***_39.50 mm _ 26_(25) ... ... []  -- -- -- _ -- -- _ --- _____ [ --- --- ] [22,t30] [13, 2] [ --- --- ]

_48_48 ___catbrainz____________32.84^* __43.11 mm _t56_ (52) ... ... []  -- -- -- _ -- -- _ --- _____ [t67, t54] [51, 20] [16, 24] _[54,54]_2/3

_49_ 47 ___summer8906_______32.71***_ 46.16 mm _ 87_ (83) ... ... []  -- -- -- _ -- -- _ --- _____ [41, 37] [41, 49] [59, t51] _[53,47]_2/3

_50_49 ___B87 ________________ 32.21^*__ 44.94 mm _ 80 _ (74) ... ...[]  -- -- -- _ -- -- _ --- _____ [ --- --- ] [6, 2] [49, 61] _[62, 61]_1/3

_51_55 ___Pulpstar ____________27.61^***_ 41.37 mm _38_ (67) ... ... [] _ 80.0 __ 9 _ 8.78 _____ [ --- --- ] [32,t21] [60,t43] _[42,36] _2/3

_52_50 ___noname_weather __ 24.41^^*___37.91 mm _ 24 _ (20) ... ...[]  -- -- -- _ -- -- _ --- _____ [ 1, 3 ] [ --- --- ] [ --- --- ] [ --- --- ]  

_53 _54 ___Ricardo23 __________24.40^**__ 42.88 mm _ 58 _ (54) ... ...[] _121.6 _ 42 _ 2.38 _____ [ --- --- ] [ --- --- ] [41,68]_[36,40]

_54_52 ___shillitocettwo ________21.92 ____ 65.79 mm _ 95 _(94) ... ... [] _ 17.0 _ 54 _ 0.00^^___ [64, 71] [56. 59] [22, 25] _[63,63] 

_55_55 ____Matt Stoke _________ 20.59^^*__42.20 mm_ 45 _ (38) ... ... []  -- -- -- _ -- -- _ --- _____ [52, 34] [28, t18.] [ --- --- ] [ --- --- ]  

_56_63 ____ciderwithrosie ______18.76^^* _ 39.77 mm _ 28_ (33) ... ... [] _ 70.5 _ 22 _ 6.20^____ [ --- --- ][ --- --- ][ --- --- ] _[17,15] 

_57_56 ____SLEETY _____________18.36^^*__37.84 mm _ 23 _ (19) ... ... []  -- -- -- _ -- -- _ --- _____ [45, 10] [47, 15] [ --- --- ]  [ --- --- ]  

_58_63 ___Blue_Skies_do_I_see __17.13^^_ 43.84 mm _ 65 _ (77) ... .... []  _ 62.0 _ 28 _ 5.20 _____ [ --- --- ] [ --- --- ] [42, 35] _ [58,52]

_59_57 ___Earthshine ___________16.90^*____47.65 mm _ 90 _ (87) . ... []  -- -- -- _ -- -- _ --- _____ [59, 62] [ --- --- ] [48, 47] _ [60,61]

_60_58 ___Cloud2 ______________15.27^^____ 43.57 mm _61 _(t46) ... ...[] _ 33.0 _ 52 _ 0.40 _____  [ --- --- ] [ --- --- ] [57,t36] _[48.t49] 

_61_59 ___ScottD _______________13.42^^*___ 42.06 mm _ 43 _ (36) ... .[]  -- -- -- _ -- -- _ --- _____ [29, 25] [ --- --- ] [ --- --- ]   [ --- --- ]  

_62_60 ___SummerLover2006 __ 13.30^^**__42.51 mm _t49 _ (t44) ... []  -- -- -- _ -- -- _ --- _____ [ --- --- ] [ --- --- ] [30, t26]  [ --- --- ]  

_63_61 ____moorlander _________ 13.13^^**__41.84 mm _ 41 _ (44) ... . []  -- -- -- _ -- -- _ --- _____ [31, 24] [ --- --- ] [ --- --- ]  [ --- --- ]  

_64_63 ___ DeepSnow ___________12.71^^**__41.86 mm _ 42 _ (39) ... . []  -- -- -- _ -- -- _ --- _____  [ --- --- ][ --- --- ][ --- --- ] [35,36]_2/3

_65_ 76 ___Cymro _______________12.56^^**__42.61 mm _ 34 _ (40) ... .[]  _64.0 _ 26 _ 5.60 _____ ( -- -- ) [---, ---] [ --- --- ] [37,25]_2/3

_66_64 __ prolongedSnowLover__12.30^^**__41.34 mm _ 37 _(t34) ...  []  -- -- -- _ -- -- _ --- _____ [36,t20] [ --- --- ] [ --- --- ]  [ --- --- ]  

_67_78 ___StretfordEnd1996 _____11.37 (3)__ 42.88 mm_ 55 _ (67) ... ... []  _110.0 _ 30_ 4.79____[ --- --- ][ --- --- ][63, t51]_[46,41]_2/3

_68_66 ___Somerset girl _________ 11.20^^* __45.09 mm _ 81_ (73) ... . []  -- -- -- _ -- -- _ --- _____ [39, 59] [ --- --- ] [ --- --- ]  [ --- --- ]    

_69_67 ____TwisterGirl81 ________11.16^^* __42.05 mm _ 40 _ (47) ... . []  -- -- -- _ -- -- _ --- _____ ( --- --- ) [57, 35] [53, 50]  [ --- --- ]  

_70_68 ____baddie _______________10.58^^**__42.45 mm _ 48 _ (38) ... .[]  -- -- -- _ -- -- _ --- _____ [71, 63] [ --- --- ] [51, t26]  [ --- --- ]  

... all forecasters below have 1 forecast entry except where shown as 2 ...

_71_69 __topclass weather forecaster_9.84(2) ____ 42.59 mm _t51_(t46) ...  []  -- -- -- _ -- -- _ --- _____ ( --- --- ) [58. 38] [55, 21]  [ --- --- ]  

_72_70 ____Thomas Green _______ 9.61 ____ 43.51 mm _ 60 _ (52) ... ... []  -- -- -- _ -- -- _ --- _____ ( -- -- ) [44, 23] [ --- --- ]   [ --- --- ]  

_73_ --- ___ Terminal Moraine ______9.49 ___ 40.77 mm _ 35 _ --- ... ... .. [] _ 82.4 __ 4 _ 9.49 ____  [ --- --- ] [ --- --- ]  [ --- --- ] [44,31]_1/3

_74_71 ____Tillys __________________9.14 ____ 42.34 mm _ 47_ (41) ... ... []  -- -- -- _ -- -- _ --- _____ [46, 28] [ --- --- ] [ --- --- ]  [ --- --- ]  

_75_72 ___raz.org.rain ____________ 8.15 (2) _ 44.82 mm _ 77 _ (87) ... ... []  -- -- -- _ -- -- _ --- _____ [ --- --- ] [ --- --- ] [ --- --- ] [51.54] _1/3

_76_73 ____Bluehedgehog074 _____ 8.10 ___ 43.87 mm _ 67 _ (59) ... ... []  -- -- -- _ -- -- _ --- _____ ( -- -- ) [48,t27] [ --- --- ]  [ --- --- ]  

_77_74____cryoraptorA303 ________ 7.88____42.51 mm _t49 _ (t44) ... ...[]  -- -- -- _ -- -- _ --- _____ [ --- --- ] [ --- --- ] [54 ,t26] [ --- --- ]  

_78_75 ____jmp223 ________________ 7.08 ___42.92 mm _ 55 _ (51) ... ... []  -- -- -- _ -- -- _ --- _____ [51, 32] [ --- --- ] [ --- --- ]   [ --- --- ]  

_79_77 ____Spiritof2006 ___________ 6.76 ____42.21 mm _ 46 _ (36) ... ... []  -- -- -- _ -- -- _ --- _____ [ --- --- ] [ --- --- ] [56,22] [ --- --- ]  

_80_79 ____Wold Topper __________ 6.18 ____ 42.59 mm_ t51 _ (t46) ... .. []  -- -- -- _ -- -- _ --- _____ [54, 30] [ --- --- ] [ --- --- ] [ --- --- ]  

_81_80 ____Shaunado _____________ 5.64 (2) __46.06 mm _ 82_ (82) ... ... []  -- -- -- _ -- -- _ --- _____ [55, 64] [ --- --- ] [ --- --- ] [ --- --- ]   

_82_81 ___summer of 95 __________ 5.60 ____ 43.64 mm _ 64 _ (57) ... ... []  -- -- -- _ -- -- _ --- _____ [56, 40] [ --- --- ] [ --- --- ] [ --- --- ]   

_83_82 ____Rob79812010 _________ 5.56 ____ 43.59 mm _ 62 _ (56) ... ... []  -- -- -- _ -- -- _ --- _____ [58. 39] [ --- --- ] [ --- --- ] [ --- --- ]   

_84_83 ____Wade __________________ 4.96 (2) _49.01 mm _ 92 _ (90) ... ... []  -- -- -- _ -- -- _ --- _____ [73, 66] [55. 50] [ --- --- ] [ --- --- ]   

_85_84 ____EastLancsRain __________ 4.88 ____44.75 mm _ 69_ (58.)  ... ... []  -- -- -- _ -- -- _ --- _____[60, 44] [ --- --- ] [ --- --- ] [ --- --- ]   

_t86_t85____WeatherEnthusiast91___4.34____ 43.65 mm _ 65 _ (58) ... ... []  -- -- -- _ -- -- _ --- _____ [ --- --- ] [ --- --- ] [ --- --- ] [59,t44]

_t86_t85____harveyslugger _________ 4.34 ____ 44.26 mm _  73_ (64) ... ... []  -- -- -- _ -- -- _ --- _____ [61, t49] [ --- --- ] [ --- --- ] [ --- --- ]   

_88_87 ____Alexis J9 ________________ 3.99 ____ 44.09 mm _ 70_ (61) ... ... []  -- -- -- _ -- -- _ --- _____ [62, 45] [ --- --- ] [ --- --- ] [ --- --- ]   

_89_88  ____snowblind _____________ 3.67 ____44.17 mm _ 72 _ (63) ... ... []  -- -- -- _ -- -- _ --- _____ [63, t46] [ --- --- ] [ --- --- ] [ --- --- ]   

_90_89 ____sukayuonsensnow ______ 3.30 ____44.67 mm _ 75_ (68) ... ... []  -- -- -- _ -- -- _ --- _____ [65, 53] [ --- --- ] [ --- --- ] [ --- --- ]   

_91_90 ____Climate Man ____________ 2.90 ____44.84 mm_ t78_ (t72) ... ... []  -- -- -- _ -- -- _ --- _____ [66, t54] [ --- --- ] [ --- --- ] [ --- --- ]   

_92_91 ____gazse9 ( -- ) ______________2.28 ____44.84 mm_ t78_ (t72) ... ... []  -- -- -- _ -- -- _ --- _____ [t67, t54] [ --- --- ] [ --- --- ] [ --- --- ]   

_93_92 ____Norrance ________________2.04 (2) _47.76 mm _ 91 _ (88) ... ... []  -- -- -- _ -- -- _ --- _____ [69, 68] [ --- --- ] [ --- --- ] [ --- --- ]   

_94_93 ___ Sawan ___________________ 0.64 ___ 45.63 mm _ 83 _ (78) ... ... []  -- -- -- _ -- -- _ --- _____ [ --- --- ][ --- --- ][ --- --- ]_ [62,62]_1/3

_95_94 ____Met. _____________________ 0.40 (2) _49.47 mm _ 93_ (91) ... ... []  -- -- -- _ -- -- _ --- _____ ( -- -- ) [59, 58] [64,t57][ --- --- ]

note: seasonal ranks display scoring rank and average error rank. [ --- --- ] indicates no seasonal entries.

 ==================================== [] ==================================

 

Congrats to methuselah who held off Feb1991blizzard and DR(S)NO, JeffC all gaining points in NOV ... 

table stat of 85.7 mm was 2.4 above tracker estimate and it gave a very close end to contest.

Edited December 8, 2024 by Roger J Smith

[Typhoon John]

I'm very happy to come in at 9th for the CET. That is definitely my highest finish

[Metwatch]

5 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

In general, consensus and normals are more "skilled" at EWP than at CET, or alternatively, we were relatively skilled at temperature forecasting vs precip forecasting in the contest year.

It will always be more difficult to guess correctly the rainfall compared to temperatures as there is a much broader range of possible figures.

[Roger J Smith]

Combined ranks in CET, EWP contests

Table includes only entrants in at least six contests. Ranks for CET 6-9 entries are from a secondary ranking list, the rank assigned is relative to points total in primary ranking and appears in brackets in CET ranks. (Blue_Skies_do_I_see entered CET and 4 EWP, most others entered same number).

In primary ranking, Typhoon John (CET 9), Mark Bayley (CET 20), damianslaw (CET 24), Summer Sun (CET 26) and Kentish Man (CET 46) did not enter EWP contests and are in table below near similar average ranks.

45 of 50 "primary rank" CET forecasters are ranked 1 to 50 in table below for CET, and 1 to 45 for combined ranks. Secondary ranked players are given ranks like 42a for combined ranks. 

Ranks for average error in both contests include some ranks not shown for 1-5 contests entered. This affects top ranks in CET where it's fairly common for ranks 1-20 to go to low-frequency entrants (e.g. rank 1 went to a lone entry with zero error). In EWP the top ranks are in table because non-entrant average errors are increased for missed forecasts. 

 

CET _ EWP __ avg __ rank __ FORECASTER _____ avg errors (C, mm) ___ ranks of avg err

_05 _ 07 ___ 06.0 ___ 01 ___ Mr Maunder ______ 0.97 C __ 35.69 mm ____ 21, t13

_07 _ 10 ___ 08.5 ___ 02t___  J 10 _______________ 0.97 C __ 32.72 mm ____ 21, 7

_04 _ 13 ___ 08.5 ___ 02t___ dancerwithwings __ 0.99 C __ 38.76 mm ____ 22, 25

_01 _ 19 ___ 10.0 ___ 04 ___ snowray ___________0.96 C __ 36.02 mm ____ 19, 16 ___ Typhoon John (CET 9)

_11 _ 11 ___ 11.0 ___ 05t___ Don _______________ 1.07 C __ 33.41 mm ____ 30, 10

_10 _ 12 ___ 11.0 ___ 05t___ February1978 ______1.03 C __ 35.01 mm ____ 27, 12

_25 _ 02 ___ 13.5 ___ 07 ___ Feb1991blizzard ___1.23 C __ 28.92 mm ____ 59, 1

_27 _ 03 ___ 15.0 ___ 08 ___ DR(S)NO ___________ 1.19 C __ 30.41 mm ____ 52, 2

_06 _ 26 ___ 16.0 ___ 09 ___ Frigid ______________ 0.90 C __ 35.69 mm ____ 17, t13

_03 _ 32 ___ 17.5 ___ 10 ___ Metwatch _________ 1.01 C __ 40.03 mm ____ 24, 29

_19 _ 17 ___ 18.0 ___ 11t___ Mulzy _____________ 1.17 C __ 36.77 mm ____ 47, 18

_35 _ 01 ___ 18.0 ___ 11t___ methuselah_______ 1.46 C __ 30.61 mm ____ 65, 3

_30 _ 06 ___ 18.0 ___ 11t___ summer18 ________1.19 C __ 31.20 mm ____ 50, 5 

_14 _ 25 ___ 19.5 ___ 14t___ syed2878 _________ 1.23 C __ 44.69 mm ____ 57, 75 

_08 _ 31 ___ 19.5 ___ 14t___ Addicks Fan 81 ____0.87 C __ 40.54 mm ____ 15, 33

_02 _ 38 ___ 20.0 ___ 16t___ davehsug _________ 0.86 C __ 45.11 mm ____ 13, t72 ___ Mark Bayley (CET 20)

_13 _ 27 ___ 20.0 ___ 16t___ rwtwm ____________1.02 C __ 40.11 mm ____ 35, 30 

_18 _ 22 ___ 20.0 ___ 16t___ Roger J Smith _____ 1.15 C __ 36.08 mm ____ 43, 17

_33 _ 08 ___ 20.5 ___ 19t___ stewfox  ___________1.29 C __ 32.74 mm ____ 62,  8

_20 _ 21 ___ 20.5 ___ 19t___ Midlands Ice Age __1.14 C __ 37.79 mm ____ 36, 22 

_12 _ 30 ___ 21.0 ___ 21___ virtualsphere _______1.11 C __ 44.14 mm ____ 36, 69

_29 _ 14 ___ 21.5 ___ 22 ___ weatherforducks ___1.12 C __ 34.81 mm ____ 37, t13 

_28 _ 16 ___ 22.0 ___ 23 ___ Stationary Front ___ 1.27 C __ 37.52 mm ____ 61, 21

_37 _ 09 ___ 23.0 ___ 24 ___ Reef ________________1.23 C __ 34.06 mm ____ 59, 11

_43 _ 04 ___ 23.5 ___ 25t___ Jeff C ______________ 1.69 C __ 31.31 mm ____ 80,  6

_14 _ 33 ___ 23.5 ___ 25t___ Let It Snow ________ 1.06 C __ 42.16 mm ____ 29, 44

_30t_ 18 ___ 24.0 ___ 27 ___ Weather26 _________ 1.30 C __ 33.89 mm ____ 63, 9 ___ damianslaw (CET 24)

_47t_ 05 ___ 26.0 ___ 28 ___ godber 1 ___________ 1.78 C __ 30.84 mm ____ 85, 4 ___ Summer Sun (CET 26)

_39 _ 15 ___ 27.0 ___ 29 ___ Emmett Garland____1.47 C __ 36.91 mm ____72, 19

_16t_ 41 ___ 28.5 ___ 30 ___ summer blizzard___ 1.03 C __ 45.73 mm ____ 28, 88 

_22 _ 36 ___ 29.0 ___ 31 ___ The PIT _____________1.17 C __ 46.01 mm ____ 47, 83

_16t_ 43 ___ 29.5 ___ 32 ___ Weather Observer___1.18 C __ 46.35 mm ____ 48, 89

_37 _ 23 ___ 30.0 ___ 33 ___ I rem Atlantic252 ___1.20 C __ 43.63 mm ____ 55, t72

_34 _ 28 ___ 31.0 ___ 34 ___ WYorksWeather ____ 1.22 C __ 40.26 mm ____ 56, 31

_40 _ 24 ___ 32.0 ___ 35 ___ SteveB ______________1.32 C __ 36.92 mm ____ 64, 20

_32 _ 34 ___ 33.0 ___ 36 ___daniel* ______________ 1.40 C __ 42.59 mm ____ 65, t51

_47t_ 20 ___ 33.5 ___ 37 ___ Polar Gael __________ 1.80 C __ 39.51 mm ____ 90, 27 

_23 _ 44 ___ 33.5 ___ 38 ___  summer shower____ 1.19 C __ 52.19 mm ____ 50, 94 

_42 _ 29 ___ 35.5 ___ 39t___ jonboy ______________ 1.52 C __ 41.57 mm ____ 74, 39

_36 _ 35 ___ 35.5 ___ 39t___ seaside60 ___________1.18 C __ 43.11 mm ____ 49, t56

_34 _ 37 ___ 35.5 ___ 39t___ Leo97t ______________ 1.54 C __ 45.32 mm ____ 76, 82

_30t_ 42 ___ 36.0 ___ 42 ___ Bobd29 _____________ 1.46 C __ 44.00 mm ____ 70, 79

(28) _49 ___ 38.5 ___ 42a___ summer8906 _______1.10 C __ 46.16 mm ____ 35, 87

(23) _58 ___ 40.5 ___ 42b __ Blue_Skies_do_I_see_ 0.94 C __ 43.84 mm ____ 18, 65 

_45 _ 39 ___ 42.0 ___ 43 ___ Neil N _______________ 1.62 C __ 45.69 mm ____ 78, 83 

(33) _53 ___ 43.0 ___ 43a___ Ricardo23 ___________ 0.87 C __ 42.88 mm ____ 14, 58

_50 _ 40 ___ 45.0 ___ 44 ___ chilly milly ___________ 1.87 C __ 46.67 mm ____ 91, 54 ___ Kentish Man (CET 46)

(44) _46 ___ 45.0 ___ 44a ___ Johnb88 ____________ 1.41 C __ 40.33 mm ____ 67, 32 

(44) _48 ___ 46.0 ___ 44b ___ catbrainz____________1.46 C __ 43.11 mm ____ 71, t56

(51) _45 ___ 48.0 ___ 44c___ KirkcaldyWeather ___ 2.21 C __ 40.87 mm ____ 96, 35 

(52) _50 ___ 51.0 ___ 44d ___ B87_________________ 1.60 C __ 44.94 mm ____ 77, 80 

_49 _ 54 ___ 51.5 ___ 45 ___ shillitocettwo ________ 1.71 C __ 65.79 mm ____ 84, 95

 

 ==================================== [] ==================================

[feb1991blizzard]

 snowray

Well done you and @Methuselah 

I had my worst ever finish (i think) of 25th in CET - i was near to last in Oct and Nov which knackered me, in EWP i was surprised to get as close to methuselah as i did, so another high finish in that, i think i've had a 1st and 2 seconds, in some ways third would have been even more interesting as next year i could have tried to do a Moses!

[Methuselah]

 feb1991blizzard

Cheers, feb. 

[snowray]

 feb1991blizzard I know, you can be doing really well and then a couple of really bad months puts you right out of the game, I had been dropping down mid year after a good start then recovered ground again in the end, it's all about trying to avoid any seriously bad month of course, or trying to anyway.

[feb1991blizzard]

 snowray Yes that's the secret, i suppose going for the lowest out of anyone in Oct was asking for trouble in the current climate  (i thought a W3 uk high was then going to retrogress to Greenland W4), went very mild in Nov (psychology of overcompensation??). 

[WYorksWeather]

 Metwatch It's also far more volatile. For example, a single storm or major rain event can easily dump half a month's worth on the EWP even if it has been dry up to that point. Whereas with temperature to get a sharp cold spell or heat spike exceptional enough to completely flip a month in only a few days is far less likely.

[Roger J Smith]

Back on p9 I edited ranks of CET-EWP for Nov, and NeilN becomes the third forecaster to achieve a "double first" in CET and EWP, well done NeilN (Midlands Ice Age and I were the other two).