November 2024 C.E.T. and EWP contests -- final month of the 2023-24 competitions

[WYorksWeather]

Key over the next 10 days or so is going to be cloud amounts. Any sunny spells in the afternoon and cloudy nights will result in some very high returns, whilst if there is more of a tendency for cloudy mornings and afternoons with clearer nights, then returns will be somewhat lower.

For what it's worth, ECM is going for temperatures in the upper decile (top 10%) of the last 20 years for next week, with a greater than 90% probability across more western areas, but at least a 50% chance across most other areas.

For top quintile (top 20%), the chart is as follows - probability is near certain across almost all of the UK.

[Roger J Smith]

Forecasts of top 20 in annual contest (as per J10 scoring tables posted in Oct contest) ...

 1. 8.7 ___ 11. 8.6

 2. 8.7 ___ 12. 8.2

 3. 8.4 ___ 13. 9.6

 4. 7.9 ___ 14. 9.1

 5. 8.3 ___ 15. 9.6

 6.10.0 ___16. 8.9

 7. 9.2 ___ 17. 8.9

 8. 8.3 ___ 18. 7.8

 9. 8.1 ___ 19. 7.7

10. 8.9___ 20. 8.1

_____________________________________________

 

[Derecho]

Morning, more mild weather on the 00z EC control.

Unless we get clear nights, we should be on about 10.8C up to the 11th. At that point even the OP diverges from the control which indicates zero confidence.

No sign of anything notably cold on the horizon but we'll probably get something more average by mid-month.

Edited November 3 by Derecho

[Summer Sun]

10.3 to the 2nd

3.8c above the 61 to 90 average

1.1c above the 81 to 10 average

[Summerlover2006]

Question has September being exceptionally wet already cancelled out a drier then average season or if things continue how they are could the season still be drier then average?

[summer blizzard]

 Summerlover2006

Autumn gets about 300mm on average so even September does guarantee a wet season. 

[Summer Sun]

10.5 to the 3rd

4.1c above the 61 to 90 average

1.4c above the 81 to 10 average

[WYorksWeather]

Seems at the moment that cloud cover is being underestimated. Overall the impact is that minima are higher than expected and maxima lower than predicted, but the latter effect more than cancels out. Overall, probably expecting a mean closer to high 9s or low 10s by mid-month now?

[Metwatch]

14 hours ago, Summerlover2006 said:

September being exceptionally wet already cancelled out a drier then average season or if things continue how they are could the season still be drier then average

EWP so far this autumn: 256mm

1991-2020 autumn average: 285mm

This November will need to record less than 30mm of rainfall for England & Wales for this autumn to be drier than average, which may still be possible, otherwise autumn will end up wetter than average.

Only 5 Novembers have recorded around or less than 30mm in Eng + Wales since the records began in 1766.

Edited November 4 by Metwatch

[Cloud2]

 summer blizzard CET has 'only' had about 250mm so far, so a particularly dry November could keep it below average.

[Roger J Smith]

Top "wet to dry" autumns of past. To make list, SEP >110, NOV <70 and OCT somewhere between 70-110. 

List is reverse chronological. 

(since 1900) ___________________________ (1766-1899)

YEAR ___ SEP _ OCT _ NOV ____________ YEAR ___ SEP _ OCT _ NOV

1999 ___ 124.9_ 86.5_ 67.3 ____________ 1896 ___ 160.7_113.0_ 40.7

1981 ___ 139.9_130.3_ 67.2____________ 1871 ___ 140.8_ 90.0_ 40.4

1968 ___ 148.1_ 99.0_ 69.6 ____________ 1829 ___ 126.7_ 65.2_ 52.8

1958 ___ 120.7_ 82.3_ 58.5 ____________ 1826 ___ 135.6_ 68.8_ 62.6

1957 ___ 121.6_ 73.6_ 65.1 ____________ 1792 ___ 151.5_ 98.6_ 47.5

1918 ___ 189.5_ 69.1_ 66.3 ____________ 1782 ___ 128.1_ 71.2_ 44.4

________________________________________ 1780 ___ 119.7_110.5_ 62.5

 

(also ... relaxed criteria >100, <80)

1993 ___ 119.6_ 94.4_ 76.0

1983 ___ 100.8_ 79.9_ 53.2

1856 ___ 104.1_ 74.7_ 46.1

1849 ___ 108.5_ 95.6_ 63.1

(1799 ... 186.8 111.8 98.3) (Nov +)

1785 ___ 105.1_ 99.3_ 67.3

(1775 ... 130.4 114.9 89.3) (Nov +)

(1774 ... 161.0 40.9 48.4) ... rare case of very wet to two very dry.)

A few other years had a decrease SEP-OCT and OCT-NOV but stayed in a narrower range, e.g.

2008 ___ 103.6 _101.2 _94.0

(or began below 100)

1956 ___ 92.5_ 56.5_ 33.3

Edited November 5 by Roger J Smith

[CryoraptorA303]

 Roger J Smith It does appear that the "very wet September, average October, drier November" is quite a common theme.

Just that in this example it's being pushed to it's extreme; central England has just recorded it's wettest month ever, and there is now a serious chance of a historically dry November, possibly even record dry.

[Summer Sun]

10.4 to the 4th

3.9c above the 61 to 90 average

1.5c above the 81 to 10 average

[Scorcher]

 WYorksWeather I have a strong freling it will still be above 10C mid month. Hard to see where any falls are coming from in the next few days.

We have barely dropped out of double figures here, day or night over these last 6 days.

Edited November 6 by Scorcher

[Summer Sun]

10.2 to the 5th

3.8c above the 61 to 90 average

1.5c above the 81 to 10 average

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 10.1C  +0.2C above normal. Rainfall at 0.4mm 0.5% of the monthly average.

[Roger J Smith]

Today's GFS continues to depict an extraordinary dry run lasting to at least 22nd Nov, EWP if true would be only 7-10 mm. CET is going to ride high for several more days and is then expected to average close to normal, which would drop running CET gradually from mid-10 range to below 9.

[Derecho]

Evening all, based on the 12z control it looks like as though we will have a mild day tomorrow followed by temperatures easing back towards average over subsequent days.

Into mid month we get several days of low diurnal temperature ranges so pretty bland overall.

As we enter the second half of the month things begin to vary. The control is not to far from the ensemble mean for both Pershore and Rothamstad but Stonyhurst is much colder.

That suggests there may be a trend for a northerly to try and push down later in the month but of course still a long time away.

I'd say expect the CET to be around the mid 8s come November 20th, so not exceptionally mild for that point in the month....

Edited November 6 by Derecho

[Summer Sun]

10.3 to the 6th

3.8c above the 61 to 90 average

1.7c above the 81 to 10 average

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 10.3C +0.5C above normal. Rainfall 0.5mm 0.6% of the monthly average.

Cold to today so it will back again tomorrow.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 10C +0.4 degrees above average. Rainfall 0.5mm 0.6% of the monthly average.

We've hadn't had a dry day yet in November yet despite this we could end up with a very dry November.

[Summer Sun]

10.2 to the 7th

3.8c above the 61 to 90 average

1.6c above the 81 to 10 average

[Roger J Smith]

EWP begins to climb after 20th and reaches a predicted grid average of 50-60 mm by 24 Nov. 

CET would likely be near 9 C by 24 Nov, after falling below 9 and recovering a bit in a second warm spell. 

 

[WYorksWeather]

Temperature probability distributions for the next two weeks. Probability of a positive temperature anomaly is very low for next week, and then the following week still a weak signal for below average. This is on 20-year mean, but certainly suggestive of at least a modest fall in the CET. A lot will depend on the detail - some colder outcomes could leave us quite quickly in 8s or even 7s.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 9.7C +0.1C above normal. Rainfall 0.5mm 0.6% of the monthly average.