What is the highest temperature the UK can record in each month by 2050?

[Summerlover2006]

I think this might spark quite a few debates and all guesses are welcome because truly no can tell you the exact temperatures.

Mine. 
 

January: 21C I would have guessed higher but January is truly when cold has set it with autumn completely gone and spring still over a month away so I just don’t see it being a month with extremes highs recorded.

February: 25C might seem a bit out there and controversial but here are my reasonings. By late February we have been shown time and time again that spring is fully developing and high temperatures can definitely happen during that time and secondly the march maximum is 25C on like the 25th and that happened in the 60s so your telling me now we can’t record 25C a couple of weeks earlier. 
 

march: 28C march seems to be one of the only months where high temperatures never seem to happen that being said though I think in the next 25 years we can get one late March heatwave. 
 

April: 32C April has shown its potential before in 2011 and in 2018 so I think if we get a more extreme version of them we can definitely hit the 90 degree Fahrenheit mark.

 

May: 35C by late May summer practically here so my reasoning is that we can get an early summer heatwave that hits this temperature. 
 

June: 40C by now June is just as much summer as July and has proven its self around the world it’s just a matter of getting the right set up.

 

July: 45C we hit 40C in 2022 and 38C in 2019 there’s nothing you can tell to say that if we get the right set up like in June we can record something this high and the excuse that we’re too far north just isn’t an excuse anymore Canada hit 49C in 2021 it’s definitely possible.

 

august: 45C same reasoning as July if 45C is going to happen it’s going to be in that peak summer 15th July to 15th august time period. 
 

September: 40C same points as June September has proven itself to be a summer month in recent years especially in the first 2 weeks 40C is definitely possible. 
 

October: 34C went a touch higher then the months seasonal counterpart April because the first 10 days of October has proven itself to show signs of summer a lot more then April 

November: 26C went lower then March because November has just never proven itself to have warm temperatures and that’s not going to change drastically in 25 years.

 

December: 24C went higher then January because early December seems more like late autumn then winter nowadays. 
 

what does everyone else think?

Edited October 25, 2024 by Summerlover2006

[Methuselah]

 Summerlover2006

What a good idea for a thread, SL. So here goes:

January: 20C; February: 22C: Smarch: 26C; April: 29C; May: 32C; June: 38C; July: 42C; August: 42C; September: 36C; October: 29C; November: 20C, and December: 20C . . . 

[WYorksWeather]

 Summerlover2006 I'm going to ignore the 'can' here, because that seems to introduce too much ambiguity. A lot of things might be theoretically possible, in the sense that the 2050 climate would have a very high ceiling compared to today, so if you had a 1 in 1000 year heatwave in a particular month it could go higher than these figures. I'll assume we're talking about where the actual records will be. In reality, by sheer chance, some months will probably underperform and overperform, because you need the right synoptics for exceptional heat. Anyway, here goes.

January - 21C. The sun is still very weak, I don't think this record can be pushed much higher. A random freak Foehn effect record could push a little higher, but I'll go with this.

February - 23C. By late February there is a little more scope for solar heating. However, the February 2019 record was extraordinary, and the Met Office actually assessed that it would have broken records even without CC, so I don't think there's much scope to increase it.

March - 27C. The type of synoptics for genuinely warm weather in March seem to be quite rare, so probably one of the most uncertain months depending on exactly how things go.

April - 31C. Seems pretty straightforward to expect that late April will be more like mid-May by this point, so reaching 31C seems reasonable.

May - 35C. We've not seen a good attempt at this record in a long time, so agree that the ceiling here is a lot higher than the current record.

June - 38C. A few decent attempts, but the 1976 record won't last forever and I think can be comfortably beaten. The ceiling is not as high as July or August though, so I don't expect to see 40C, for example.

July - 42C. The Coningsby record will be a fairly tough one to break, but the ceiling will have nudged up a degree or two, and another of those heat spikes will land at some point.

August - 41C. The potential to match July is there, but only the first third or so of August has the potential to break records, so the chances of getting the optimum timing are lower than in July, hence a lower record here.

September - 36C. Very uncertain about this. The 1906 record seems extraordinarily tough to match, whether it is that this record is unreliable, or whether it was an unbelievably extraordinary event, or a bit of both is somewhat uncertain. Of all the records, probably the one that I think has the best chance of surviving until 2050.

October - 32C. 2011 was another pretty extraordinary one, so expecting an advance on the current record but not a huge one.

November - 24C. The strength of the sun is very weak by this stage. It is quite hard to maintain a mild enough airflow to challenge records, and the mildest airmasses are quite moist by this point, making it harder to increase the record by very much.

December - 21C. Somewhat milder than January overall, but the sun is at its absolute weakest, so again not expecting anything too extraordinary.

Overall

I've predicted that none of the current 2024 records will survive, but that is looking at each month individually. I don't actually believe they will all fall necessarily, treat this as an over/under for each month. If I had to predict that, I'd expect that two months will see their records survive until 2050, by sheer luck of not having the right synoptics for warmth, or bad timing (e.g. a few strong heatwaves / warm spells, but in the early part of a warming month or the later part of a cooling month).

As an aside, I think that some of the metrics for overnight heat and also duration of heat, will be more impressive than the high temperature records. We've gone from recording an average of one tropical night per year to several - it wouldn't surprise me if by 2050 a dozen or more per year were recorded, perhaps more than that given the number of nights we currently see reaching 18C or 19C, which might be 20C by 2050 and so qualify as tropical nights. In terms of lengthy streaks of hot weather, it wouldn't surprise me if we see an 'omega block' type pattern with a very consistent high delivering a ludicrous streak of warmth by current standards, 30 days or more over 30C or something like that.

[WYorksWeather]

 Methuselah Just FYI, your January record is only 0.1C above the current one, and your April, May, October and November ones are actually below the current records.

[Metwatch]

I posted similar earlier this year elsewhere on here, and looking through them, I'd probably add a degree to what I listed below as to what the ceiling is possible in 25 years time. England (no foehn) reaching 20c during December and January, I can't see that happening for a good while, simply due to there not being enough solar heating, and would take a lot more warming to get there. Solar heating is still a limiting factor that can't be changed.

 

Another thread below which is quite useful on current state of records this century:

Edited October 25, 2024 by Metwatch

[Scorcher]

I was just thinking about this the other day. I'm not sure the winter months can go much higher than the current records, unless the UK somehow moves further south.

Even if the planet warms significantly, the sun isn't going to get stronger in this part of the world- which would be necessary to get temps significantly in excess of 20C in the winter months.

I think February could potentially go a bit higher if we got a 2019 style setup again in the last couple of days of the month.

I think April, May and June are the months that could see much higher temperatures in theory. I'm actually amazed that the May record isn't significantly higher than it is.

 

[WYorksWeather]

 Scorcher It's an interesting one this. It is harder to push the winter months up. The problem is that generally our mildest winter days have fairly moist air combined with sunny spells, and often a lot of Foehn effect. So you don't get as much out of the warmer airmasses. Hence why I think an increment of a degree or two is possible, maybe into just low 20s for December and January, and only February well into the 20s out of the winter months.

What will of course happen is that the potential for colder temperatures from the north will diminish a lot, so I expect we will see a much larger difference in the average temperatures in winter, even if the maximum potential doesn't increase very much.

[Scorcher]

 WYorksWeather I do think the exceptional early January warm spell at the beginning of last year (that the UK strangely missed out on largely) does show that temps could go higher than is thought possible.

Some places in Europe smashed their all time January records by several degrees. Warsaw 18.9C in January for example, which was 4C above the previous record.

[reef]

I think its entirely dependent on SSTs around the UK and how they respond as the climate gradually warms. I say this because a day on 21st March with 10C 850hPa temperatures will be much cooler than a similar day on 21st September, despite both the airmass temperature and sun strength being identical. Being an island we have moderation of airmasses, which explains why May struggles to see exceptional maxima when the sun is as strong as much of July.

If SSTs were to warm disproportionately by +5C on now say, then 20C in a warm south-westerly might not be out of the question in winter. If they don't warm by as much, then the increase over now will be more dependent on how much warmer the airmass is in a 2050 warm/hot spell.

We see the same effect on cold spells in winter nowadays, where "marginal" setups which used to produce snow now do not due to the SSTs warming. This is often compounded by the airmasses often being slightly warmer too.

I think 20C in December and January probably wont happen by 2050 outside of exceptional Fohn effect events, but a 30C in April or October and 38C in June and 40C in August are good bets.

[Scorcher]

I can see 35C in May happening definitely- especially in the last few days of the month.

I know SSTs are an issue in May, but I think that sort of temperature is theoretically possible even now with the very strong sun.

It would probably need a high to the east of the UK with a heat pump low over Spain/Bay of Biscay and a SE flow to minimise the sea track.

It would require uppers in the 18-20C range I'd have thought, which were once unthinkable in May but definitely possible now I think.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

haven't we already had 30 in 0ct, cannot imagine 30 in April, but 20 could happen late Jan

[Scorcher]

 I remember Atlantic 252 The April 2018 hot spell wasn't far off 30C (and wasn't even in the last week) and the record of 29.4C was set in 1949 when SSTs were lower (and it was the 16th)- so I'd say 30C is very possible in April in the right setup in the last few days of the month.

Edited October 26, 2024 by Scorcher

[WYorksWeather]

 reef I think the December / January examples have to include the extreme Foehn effect ones, otherwise you make it too complex. The record for January went under the radar a bit, but was broken this year at Achfary, 19.9C.

The key is going to be the extent of airmass warming as you say. That does seem to be very rapid - it depends how fast we see the scaling up of 20C isotherm visits in the warm half of the year. Those were at one stage once a decade or less (at least as far back as we can reliably go). Now we're probably averaging around one such event every other year. Ability to break existing records in such number and by these margins will be strongly dependent on how much more common those become.

[A Winter's Tale]

UK

 

Jan 21 - 19.9 on 28 Jan in NW Scotland only days after the area had low temperatures and deep snow. In optimal conditions, perhaps in early January, could see temperatures exceed 20.5C. 

 

Feb 25 - current record 21.2C on the 26th. 23.9C has been recorded as early as March 9th so I can’t see why a temperature exceeding 24.5C can’t happen in late February.

 

Mar 27 - current record 25.6C on the 29th. 26.5C on April 4th leads me to believe 27C is more than possible in late March. 

 

April 31.5 - 29.4C on April 16th, 29.1C on April 19th should mean 30C could be exceeded in late April. 30.6 on 12th May is the earliest day 30C has been recorded.

 

May 35.5 - 32.8 is the current record. 33.3C on June 2nd and 34.4 on June 3rd suggests 35C is possible in June. 

 

June 38 - 35.6 is the current record. The previous July record of 36.7C was recorded on the 1st in 2015 - this was a short-lived hot spell  after a fairly wet period so not exactly optimal conditions. I think 37C could easily be exceeded in late June and in optimal conditions 38C might be a little conservative. 

 

July 42 - I recall some models suggesting 42-45C in parts of SE England in 2022. I think 41-42C is more realistic in an extreme scenario. 

 

Aug 41.5 - The all-time high of 40.3C occurring on July 19th suggests a similar temperature is possible in early August - perhaps the ceiling a tad lower than July.

 

Sep 37 - The current record is 35.6C. 34.4C has been recorded as late as 13h September. Latest 36C has been recorded is 19th August. In an extreme scenario a temperature above 36.5C is possible for early September.

 

Oct 32 - current record is 29.9C, 30.6C has been recorded as late as 27th September and 32.2C on 19th September. 31-32C is a possibility in early October. 

 

Nov 25 - 22.4C is the current record. 23.6C has been recorded as late as 31st October, 24.6C on 19th and 25.9C on 18th. 24-25C is possible in an optimal set up in early November. 

 

Dec 21.5 - The current record 18.7C on 28th December. 20C has been recorded as late as 23rd November. In an extreme set up 21C could be exceeded in early December. 

 

Scotland 

 

Jan 21 - same as UK.

 

Feb 21.5 - 19.2C on 5th March, 20C on 9th and 22.2C on 12th suggests 21C could be exceeded in late February. 

 

Mar 24.5 - 23.6C is the current record so 24C+ shouldn’t be out of reach in late March. 

 

Apr 29 - 27.2 on 17th April is the record. 28.3 on 2nd May and 29C on 14th May suggests 29C could be possible in late April. 

 

May 31.5 - 30.9C on 25th May is the record. 31.1 on 4th June should mean 31.5C is possible  for late May. 

 

Jun 34.5 - the record is 32.2 on 18th June. I see no reason why 33C+ can’t be recorded in late June. 

 

Jul 37 - the current record is 34.8 on 19th July. Some models showed localised temperatures of 36C-38C in SE Scotland so 37C+ could be possible in an optimal set up. 

 

Aug 36 - current record 32.9 on 9th August. Temperatures similar to July 2022 could be possible in early August though the ceiling should be a little lower with less heat from sunlight. 

 

Sep 33 - current record of 32.2C is hard to beat. 33C might just be possible in an optimal set up. 

 

Oct 28 - similar to September the record of 27.4C on 3rd October is hard to beat.

 

Nov 22 - 22.1C on 27th October suggests current record of 20.5C can be beaten.

 

Dec 21.5 - same as UK

[Weather Enthusiast91]

I can't see 20°C happening in December or the first half of January personally, at least not for a very long time. The second half of January possibly, and February definitely as we have seen happen in 2019.

The days are just too short and the sun is weak. It's going to take some doing to reach the 20s I think, even in this warming climate.

Edited October 27, 2024 by Weather Enthusiast91

[WYorksWeather]

 Weather Enthusiast91 For December, the only way it could probably be done would be through long-draw south-westerlies. Get a massive Bartlett-style high dragging in direct south-westerlies from the Azores, and you might just get there. Would probably be a localised Foehn effect record though.

This was the 18.6C from December 2019 in Achfary due to Foehn effect - I would have thought that another 30 years would allow some increase on this, and also the timing is definitely non-optimal - this would have delivered higher temperatures in the first week of December with fractionally longer days and slightly higher SSTs.

I do think 20C is theoretically possible in any month, but there might still be a period of around two weeks from Christmas to the first week of January where it is not yet possible.

[B87]

UK record highs as of the year 2050:

Jan: 22c

Feb: 25c

Mar: 28c

Apr: 33c

May: 37c

Jun: 40c

Jul: 43c

Aug: 42c

Sep: 38c

Oct: 33c

Nov: 24c

Dec: 22c

[Harry233]

By 2050

January: 20.4.C

February: 22.6.C

March: 27.0.C

April: 30.8.C

May: 34.2.C

June: 37.9.C

July: 42.7.C

August: 41.4.C

September: 37.4.C

October: 31.4.C

November: 23.8.C

December: 19.4.C