Winter Approaching: Forecast and Model Discussion Commentary

[Community Team]

A quick intro to the new thread layout - there's this thread which is the equivalent to the  fast moving 'model thread' we usually have, but with a bit more flexibility.

Alongside this will be the 'Strictly model output discussion', which is about as at sounds and intended to be solely model related discussions (which can include strat, MJO, QBO and other teleconnections based discussion as well). On top of that, the strictly model thread will double-up as the model highlights thread, so the posts with enough 'insightful' reactions will also be copied into that thread. 

So to put some more meat on the bones, thanks to @Blessed Weather:

This thread is intended to be a more relaxed environment than the Strictly Model Output Discussion thread. Please use this thread for discussing any aspect of upcoming winter weather including model output, seasonal forecasts from other organisations, matches with past winters and other weather-related inputs to the outlook. Please use your Regional thread for discussing local 'in my backyard' prospects and weather. Reference to climate change on immediate prospects is acceptable as part of a wider post, but please use the dedicated Climate Change area for any in-depth discussions. Please use the 'insightful' reaction if you believe a post in here also warrants being copied over to the Strictly Model Output Discussion thread.

As ever - please keep things friendly, civil and within the community guidelines. If you spot any posts you think don't meet that criteria, please report them.

Thank you and happy model watching!

[happyfoxyboy]

ICON 12z looks very slightly better at +60h. Here's a comparision between 12z (left) and 06z (right).

 

   

[Jackski4]

Welp where is everyone? 12zs about to roll out!

[Northwest NI]

“Frequent wintry showers are expected, mainly in the north and along eastern and western coasts were exposed to the strong north to northwesterly flow. Snow is likely to fall to low levels, especially in the north. Many inland areas may be largely dry with lengthy sunny spells, especially where sheltered from the flow. However, there is a risk of some more organised areas of rain and hill snow running east across more southern parts. The chance of any widespread or disruptive snowfall affecting more populated areas at this stage remains low though. Cold everywhere with overnight frost, and the strong winds will result in significant wind chill. There is a hint that it may become less cold later in the period, with more of a westerly flow becoming established.”

 

Sounds pretty positive ️ 

Edited November 13 by Northwest NI

[suxer]

@sheikhy how's the ICON mate?

[johncam]

 Northwest NI yep , hopefully get a week of colder weather which is more than we got last winter 

[Lukesluckybunch]

ICON a appears to be taking the trough further south and east..all good

[edinburgh_1992]

GFS06 looks like a major downgrade to me, I see hints of a Bartlett appearing again towards the end of November... it has been hinting at a return to mild south-westerlies in the long run for some time now. 

[HarvSlugger]

 edinburgh_1992 Let's not worry about that far ahead

[Rayth]

 edinburgh_1992 GFS06 looks like a major downgrade to me, I see hints of a Bartlett appearing again towards the end of November... it has been hinting at a return to mild south-westerlies in the long run for some time now.

 

Fancy ruining a lovely fresh thread with trolling , tut tut 

[Northwest NI]

“All good”

”Major downgrade”

hmmm…..

Too busy to watch rollout here and this commentary isn’t helping

[IanT]

1 minute ago, edinburgh_1992 said:

I see hints of a Bartlett appearing again towards the end of November

Oh no! What can you see in the nearer timescale, say Tuesday -> Thursday next week? Anything of interest there, or should we focus on T+384…?

[Mike Poole]

Not much difference to 6z run from the ICON out to T90.

I will be looking for an improved UKMO this afternoon above everything else - this is the one model we don’t want against us at short range, and this mornings run, while getting the cold in nicely to the UK, then rather collapsed the heights in Greenland.  Of course, if the model had run on, it could have reloaded them like the GFS 6z did, but who knows.

[Ali1977]

 edinburgh_1992 old news the 06z - upgrades all the way now 

[happyfoxyboy]

ICON 12z gets the ridge further east at +114h.

12z left, 06z right

   

Edited November 13 by happyfoxyboy

[Mcconnor8]

Greenland High even stronger on the 12z ICON! Looking great.

This will turn out to be an incredible run, great tone setter for the 12z suite.

Edited November 13 by Mcconnor8

[happyfoxyboy]

At +138h, the overall pattern is gorgeously good. But what I don't really like is the low forming west of Norway, it might interrupt the clean flow of arctic air. A thing to keep in note, as the warm waters allow these lows to form pretty quickly.

Edited November 13 by happyfoxyboy

[MJB]

 IanT  edinburgh_1992 Too be fair he has a point, we all know that the 384 chart is the most reliable 

[edinburgh_1992]

Personally i'd prefer to see cold synoptics that don't deliver straight away but give us hope for cold and snow well into December. 

We've had plenty of cold snaps in November/early december in the past couple of years, none of those patterns have lasted. 

That's why i'm cautious of the long term, as the kind of synoptics shown towards the end of the GFS run (and GFS has been suggesting this for a few days now) are very hard to unblock once they set in. The mean GEFS also suggests mild south-westerlies in the long run, with high pressure stuck over western and central Europe. 

Also, experience shows that when we see this type of chart at the end of runs, quite often they verify and are brought forward too. 

[Frosty.]

There has been some model wobbles in the last day or 2 but it seems we are firming up now on a significantly wintery extended outlook, the 6z seems to confirm this…I’m really excited, I’ve been here since 2005..l love snow and icy cold air with snow drifts and powdery snow..woah cowboy!  …I got a little excited there..please forgive me! …suffice to say, the latest mean charts are incredible for coldies which the experts..M E T O..now agree with!…I’m officially excited!  

[Dennis]

Icon 500hpa

[HarvSlugger]

 Frosty. You've been here since the year I was born

[Chesil View]

 happyfoxyboyThst low forming in already arctic air.

[Met4Cast]

I like the idea of a more relaxed thread, great move I think! 

Big 12z GFS coming up, keep an eye on that Greenland blocking, we really don’t want to see that weaken any further!

[Lukesluckybunch]

Brilliant stuff from the ICON,these are the charts we can dream of!,some frigid cold over scandi this run,just waiting for the flow to veer northeast!

Edited November 13 by Lukesluckybunch
Asding