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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted (edited)

Not a great deal of excitement on offer this morning .

The models have struggled to get the cold air south which is a shame given the depth of cold just to the north of the UK .

We do see a brief window early next week especially for more northern areas and if you're scratching around for some interest the ECM cuts shortwave energy more se rather than south .

It does show a wintry mix for the north and some snow in parts of Scotland even to lower ground .

It's a shame we couldn't get that deeper cold further south as the se flow ahead of that shortwave could have delivered some snow further south as well into the Midlands and parts of Wales .

I'd still keep an eye on that as there's still a chance .

Any snow sadly won't last unless we can see a stronger high over Scandi . In which case we would stretch this out by a day or two   as the shortwave would run se further west .

After that the Atlantic looks to be more punchy and the question is whether we get a se jet into the UK .

The MJO isn't giving much help there unless it can make more stronger progress  into phase 6 . That tends to correlate with the Azores high displacing further west and north .

 

Edited by nick sussex
  • Like 2
Posted
  • Location: Norway
  • Location: Norway
Posted (edited)

the change is seen to a stronger block sign ---- and MJO is the troublemaker 

so lets hope into this weekend some will be better to that phase 

image.thumb.png.71de3d76620a55c4b4636de98f25331e.pngimage.thumb.png.f23b34edf1854249724f0017c78a3d59.pngimage.thumb.png.3d47b11bd7edd19cfd5935205fd75fbe.png

Edited by Dennis
  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted

No getting away from the fact that the last two suites have been rather disappointing 

cold plunges watered down somewhat and the Atlantic ridging failing to gain enough traction as the Canadian vortex fires up the jet with repeated cold plunges rather than digging the trough for more than a day or two at a time. It’s all too mobile. 

there are signs that week 3 could see the upstream vortex lose some strength which could enable a more organised retrogression of the Atlantic ridge to take place.  What we still aren’t seeing is strong ens support to drive the ridge towards e europe as week 2 progresses. 

Posted
  • Location: Oxford
  • Location: Oxford
Posted

Morning all,Geffs  interesting this morning ensembles showing the mean below average from the 8th December then along continues run below the mean average,perhaps something to keep an eye on.

  • Like 5
Posted
  • Location: Lancing
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Lancing
Posted (edited)

 Anthony Burden

Yes the 0z GEFS was an improvement on the 18z GEFS from the 8th onwards

20241129_092230.jpg

20241129_092232.jpg

Edited by Mcconnor8
Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
Posted
1 hour ago, Dennis said:

image.thumb.png.3d47b11bd7edd19cfd5935205fd75fbe.png

That's a disappointing forecast, showing the MJO enter a null phase!

  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
Posted

 Dennis What implications would that possibly have for us ref to that PV forecast?

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
Posted
2 hours ago, blizzard81 said:

That big chunk of vortex setting up shop over Greenland is a big concern.

I was hoping you would have fixed this overnight?! 🤷‍♂️ 😜

  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Posted (edited)

gfs 6z not looking to shabby  at 200 hours

Edited by swfc
  • Like 3
Posted
  • Location: Saddleworth, historically West Yorks, 225m asl
  • Weather Preferences: All 4 seasons and a good mixture of everything and anything!
  • Location: Saddleworth, historically West Yorks, 225m asl
Posted

 swfc

Yes it's a better block isn't it, in simple terms

GFS 00 

image.thumb.png.99c2e7307920e872d6db2a3ce839d7e9.png

GFS 06

image.thumb.png.7f5ad254a807b2d18189d812907c2333.png

 

A more direct hit but still would likely be a brief affair but we'll wait to see what the rest of run brings

  • Like 2
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Posted
  • Location: Arendal, Norway
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, snow and more snow!
  • Location: Arendal, Norway
Posted

GFS 06z similar to GEM 00z

GFSOPEU06_237_1.pngGEMOPEU00_222_1.png

Posted
  • Location: Saddleworth, historically West Yorks, 225m asl
  • Weather Preferences: All 4 seasons and a good mixture of everything and anything!
  • Location: Saddleworth, historically West Yorks, 225m asl
Posted

Oh hello there GFS, those uppers really start to bite in this run!

image.thumb.png.f56056a5e3a48895bfdba2447ddf3e3d.png

image.thumb.png.83ec3134e681947d835cf13d8b7ce9ac.png

image.thumb.png.1a95b93028be18c083e385a5b252655d.png

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted

FI illustration by gfs in back to back runs.😩

IMG_1765.png

IMG_1766.png

  • Like 5
Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted (edited)

Much less organised vortex profile on the 06z allows for better ridging and a buckling of the jet 

another op plucked from a different cluster 

remember the three features that should be present for a representative run in the 11/15 day period 

vortex segment n Canada 

upper ridge western north america

low heights n pacific  

Azores ridge mid Atlantic 

Edited by bluearmy
  • Like 3
Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate. Elevation : Garbage
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate. Elevation : Garbage
Posted

Here she comes.

image.thumb.png.07fd7ae4cf0f1e19880aa5f53ae26d32.png

  • Like 5
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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
Posted

GFS continues to play around with different degrees of amplification, we've seen a few runs recently showing mid atlantic heights ridging strongly north, but also a few less so with lower heights crashing in through the n atlantic keeping them further south.

The theme of first part of December will be the interaction of said heights with the jetstream dictated by the strength and posistion of the PV and zonal flow.

The MJO may have a role to play as well if it can amplify into phase 6 which in theory would support stronger ridge influence - but there is uncertainty on its behaviour and affects.

In essence a changeable start to December, nothing especially cold on offer, at times very mild - Sunday a case in point, but also some brief chilly frosty spots with wintry precipitation at times reserved mainly for northern high ground. As we move into mid Dec the window opens more for perhaps something more distinctly colder.. 

  • Like 2
Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate. Elevation : Garbage
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate. Elevation : Garbage
Posted

 *Stormforce~beka* Wouldn't know how to, i think Paul might have the required expertise though!

 

Anyway - it wasn't quite the very top shelf, probably shelf 1b rather than 1a.

image.thumb.png.6ff843578ee05cdc3c1bd2241cf71b8a.png

  • Thanks 2
Posted
  • Location: Locksbottom, NW Kent 92m asl(310ft)
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers but not too hot and colder winters with frost and snow
  • Location: Locksbottom, NW Kent 92m asl(310ft)
Posted

 feb1991blizzard  Aaron Robertsstill a disorganised vortex on this run which is a positive 

  • Like 2
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