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Posted
  • Location: East Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: snow or warm&dry
  • Location: East Surrey
Posted

12z is a downgrade. The high can’t even make it half way into Greenland and starts moving towards the uk Mcconnor8  

  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Sometimes UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Sometimes UK
Posted

Latest UKMO shows a bit of a squeeze taking place near to the British Isles as the Atlantic systems come up against the strengthening Russian high and aided by the lower heights across the Eastern Med. Just out of interest the first out perimeter results show snow over Northern England on Tues/ Wed , especially at higher elevation as Atlantic features comes up against the cold air in place. Maybe, something to watch !

UKMOPEU12_144_1.png

  • Like 4
Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted

 bluearmy rather west than SE 😂

On GFS at least ,we wait for things to change to the NW in the hope of retrogression...

Hate seeing blues and purples up there ..

🫤

 

  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: Lancing
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Lancing
Posted (edited)

17328986136187592247712008269716.thumb.png.84270aaa30431de9d3a2b349b4e7e27d.png17328986273804304748604229977043.thumb.png.da4618180b5c9c0fc314c92716f120ed.png

GEM isn't bad at all, cold air already arriving by Day 8 and that high looks primed for retrogression towards Greenland at Day 10 when the run ends.

 Kasim Awan Agreed I think the models are looking promising still for period of 8th onwards, as you say the key is not seeing heights building up around the Azores still as that really just kills any cold potential.

Edited by Mcconnor8
  • Like 4
  • Thanks 1
  • Insightful 1
Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted

 northwestsnow the runner in the western Atlantic is a pain as it inhibits clean retrogression at day 11 

however, upstream looks interesting for the back end of the run. 

 Nick F and therefore unlikely nick 

  • Like 3
Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted (edited)

 bluearmy GFS UKMO 168 is a good match at 168

17328990691285348746618367242369.thumb.png.adae7db0b1fecb81daefe892846c436f.png

17328990966141644373531164146049.thumb.png.cc0b88596fad01906188a98bf8c4119e.png

GFS down the line might get there but it's a hard slog

17328991777484320713842169057647.thumb.png.930d82f16ac42316c9d097906743e6c1.png

Edited by northwestsnow
  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
Posted

Late in the run but some very nice warm advection up the west side of Greenland and the PV on its way to Siberia.

  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted (edited)

 Chesil View

17329000508067152612572313230020.thumb.png.34d7516f02a66959f47956e2ea2c59df.png

Pointless by day la la and almost certainly brief ,but quite potent all the same...

Edited by northwestsnow
  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Posted
  • Location: Southern Finland, Nurmijärvi or Northern Savo.
  • Location: Southern Finland, Nurmijärvi or Northern Savo.
Posted

 northwestsnow Not looking good, because Scandinavia is not so cold, it needs to get cold in Scandinavia and eastern Europe. 

  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
Posted

 northwestsnow still better than a blowtorch south-westerly at that time nws.

  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Location: Cambridge
Posted

There are even differences between the 6z update and the 12z update for the 180. hour , and it is in our favor. The decrease in geopotential height important, the 500z anomaly can provide us with the infrastructure for a better cold attack with minor make-ups

 

6EA1EC75-9E40-464B-A656-42B2F9D4ED3F.thumb.png.22cc9658235cd1d65c11f45bb270233a.png

845615B8-9EDD-49DF-80E4-639C159806BE.thumb.png.0a1da7829c20cf3a094f3b1412527d91.png

  • Like 2
Posted
  • Location: Norway
  • Location: Norway
Posted

the block to a -NAO is what we look for

some first sign is seen around 7-8th so that the west train is knocked out

still some worries on the MJO  but its to be better forseen 

image.thumb.png.bce9457a95a900531dfb5b18a5bf93c7.pngimage.thumb.png.7e9c47c485f6a0f735b9d5176d2222a6.pngimage.thumb.png.d274ba09cc61988f8e3bb177477be62f.pngimage.thumb.png.2688c7b76e8b2e44d26d0d1d23787cb2.png

  • Like 4
  • Insightful 2
Posted
  • Location: Egerton, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, sunshine, freezing fog, etc
  • Location: Egerton, Kent
Posted

 Nick F According to Copilot:

 

The record high air pressure in December over the North Atlantic was 1052.

This occurred in mid-December 2023 and was quite unusual for that time and location

(https://www.theweathernetwork.com/en/news/weather/forecasts/record-breaking-high-pressure-is-stirring-up-trouble-in-the-atlantic?citationMarker=43dcd9a7-70db-4a1f-b0ae-981daa162054 "1").

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Posted
  • Location: Bicester
  • Location: Bicester
Posted
1 hour ago, Mcconnor8 said:

GEM isn't bad at all, cold air already arriving by Day 8 and that high looks primed for retrogression towards Greenland at Day 10 when the run ends.

Back door easterly there at day 10 ,very cold source

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted

Not bad.

IMG_1767.png

  • Like 1
  • Insightful 1
Posted
  • Location: Bicester
  • Location: Bicester
Posted
9 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Not bad.

Not really liking that chart too much..looks likely too topple that vortex spinning wrong away I think southwest northeast

Posted
  • Location: Lancing
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Lancing
Posted

 Lukesluckybunch Yeah need the low pumping WAA towards Greenland to be much further West so the high doesn't build as close to us and not topple quickly.

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