Winter Approaching: Forecast and Model Discussion Commentary

[HarvSlugger]

I don't have a good feeling about this cold spell at all now...

[Don]

 LRD Pendulum is still swinging I think!  Not sure it's a 'massive step back'?

 LRD I don't mean to clutch at straws, but I'm not sure the EC46 picked up on last week's cold snap very well?

Edited November 29, 2024 by Don

[LRD]

 Don Can't really recall re the cold spell and whether EC46 identified it

It's a mid/long term model. It'll get things wrong. Not to be taken too literally but more for hints and trends. But some previously interesting height anomalies have been watered down tonight

Edited November 29, 2024 by LRD

[Mcconnor8]

 HarvSlugger Just wait for the pub run to flip back to cold spell on again 

Having said that at Day 5 it does look better upstream.

[TSNWK]

 Mcconnor8 looks the same to me at 138hr what you seeing?

[Legend.Ice]

 HarvSlugger

There is no happiness without snowfall, come to your senses super giga model simulations, we need cold and snowflakes coming from the pole , I believe , it is not far

[TSNWK]

Nope 18z looks like another dud.. heights really struggling to gain any traction north.

[Mcconnor8]

 TSNWK Yep just far too much Westerly energy coming from the low moving off the US Eastern seaboard, looks like it moves towards Greenland after to try and set up the vortex there as well.

[Don]

1 minute ago, Mcconnor8 said:

looks like it moves towards Greenland after to try and set up the vortex there as well.

Criminal run!! 

[blizzard81]

I don't think today has been a downgrade. I think overall it's been an upgrade at the 7 to 8 day period. Yesterday's and today's ECM ops for next Saturday for comparison for example.

[TSNWK]

Don’t  be surprised if it try’s again around day 10.. maybe hold it for few runs… then as we get to day 7 up pops a shortwave to flatter any heights heading towards Greenland..

 we know the drill.. but heck we never give up 

Edited November 29, 2024 by TSNWK

[TSNWK]

Ha..the short wave came early at day 9.5.. so no eye candy to tweeze us in fil

night gang

[Don]

1 minute ago, TSNWK said:

we know the drill.. but heck we never give up 

Not yet anyway and at least we are not looking at weeks and weeks of mild south westerlies (yet!)

[WYorksWeather]

 TSNWK Trouble basically starts at day 5 with that low - it cuts the high off and prevents it from heading NW. It was the EC AI 12z that was the first to pick up on it I think yesterday, so if it turns out to be right it's a big win for that model in terms of accuracy.

[HarvSlugger]

 TSNWK please tell me that high pressure isn't a gloomy one,but a frosty sunny one

[WYorksWeather]

 Don As I was saying earlier - if the high fails to get far enough north it'll probably topple over us. Temperatures under that will depend on the exact scenario. If it's a UK to Scandi high it will be reasonably cold at the surface. If it's a UK to Azores high (possibly the more likely option) then that'll be much milder. Regardless, it would be dry.

I would happily take something like this (mild and dry) over the horrendously wet weather we had last December. I still remember nearly 100mm of rain falling in a single day at my location on one of the days between Christmas and New Year. With the current flooding risks, I'd take almost anything in preference to that.

 

[Mike Poole]

GFS 18z just now headed towards the timescale of interest, T252:

I’m not expecting proper cold earlier than 10 days to verify yet.

Edited November 29, 2024 by Mike Poole

[E17boy]

Evening peeps,

Hope you are all well. A nice day today here in London unbroken sunshine and feeling quite pleasant after the frosty start this morning. 

The mood in here seems to have dropped again today after the upbeat just 24 hrs ago. It’s the last day of November tomorrow and then another 15 days till mid month. So some points from me.

Like what happened last winter, there was a big hype that by mid December we would see a pattern  change to something much colder, However we all know this was then pushed to Christmas. Christmas came and went and then it was the new year.  The waiting from mid December went on and on.  Seems that the same expectation has again been set for this December.

The thing to remember is that in reality at this moment in time we really have no clue as to what we will be facing come mid December, The weather on our island can change overnight, so having expectations for 15 days ahead is a high gamble. For those who are downbeat from todays output, my best advice would be to hold your heads up,  I know we all want the snow and it is frustrating not to see this on the models, however we must remember that the output can change within a couple of days and we have the whole of winter yet in front of us. Fingers crossed the cold will come but pinpointing  an expectation 15 days ahead is a challenge in itself. Like the last cold snap we just had , a lot of us did not expect any snow but got it  which was a welcomed surprise. Winter will come, but its timings and ideas may be different from ours. 
 

regards

THE WAIT FOR WINTER GOES ON  

 

[blizzard81]

Not a good sign when the pub run has brewer's droop.

[HarvSlugger]

Maybe this cold spell will happen but more in the middle of December timeframe

[Met4Cast]

 HarvSlugger

Hmm I have heard that suggested somewhere..

[HarvSlugger]

 Met4Cast just trying to be hopeful, our best cold spell will probably be April though

[near northampton]

 Dennis you seem  to make a fundamental assumption that everyone on this thread is looking for cold snowy weather , not everyone is

[HarvSlugger]

 near northampton over 90% percent are though

Not much point everyone posting in a different way everytime for the very few that don't want cold IMO

Edited November 29, 2024 by HarvSlugger

[Don]

 Met4Cast you were quite optimistic earlier though?