Winter Approaching: Forecast and Model Discussion Commentary

[LRD]

A very unusual chart. Looks a very mild NORTH-westerly but not sure it will be

If only it was about 1,500 miles further north/north-west eh, coldies?!

Edited November 30, 2024 by LRD

[Mcconnor8]

 LRD Looks to me like the high is ready to push towards Greenland at this point, whether we get the cold hitting us directly is the question. I think it will be a stonker at day 9+, a classic pub run special 

Edited November 30, 2024 by Mcconnor8

[blizzard81]

 Mcconnor8 looks primed 

[WYorksWeather]

 LRD My guess is it's due to the original air source. It looks to me like almost a reverse of a polar maritime airmass - dragging mild air from the Azores up towards Iceland, cooling it, then dropping it down on the UK?

Still need to see the later stages of the run.

[seabreeze86]

The Pub run doing its thing here a belter of a run incoming here 

Edited November 30, 2024 by seabreeze86

[Dennis]

theres the -NAO seen 

[LRD]

 WYorksWeather Yeah, weird ain't it?

I've often wondered that, if the expansion of the Hadley Cell theory is correct in a warming world, whether the Azores High could get so far north, it would it let in cold by a bizarre route. That chart is almost a perfect example

[WYorksWeather]

Bit of suspense now for the next couple of frames - does it make it all the way south? Cold dropping down from the north at day 10. 

[LRD]

 seabreeze86 Still think the 'backside' of that massive high might scupper things but we shall see

[Mcconnor8]

Some very cold air heading South at Day 10.

[Mike Poole]

Up up and away, and the cold marches south:

And at T240 so into the 10 day range now.

[blizzard81]

 Mike Poole Pub run disclaimer served though

[That ECM]

[LRD]

Another cold front. Not necessarily as lively as the one projected for the previous Friday but significant in other ways perhaps

[Mcconnor8]

 LRD

We might get some of the purples at our shores on this run

[Mike Poole]

 blizzard81 No, not really, the run is consistent with the earlier ensembles.  It’s won’t be an outlier.

[blizzard81]

 Mcconnor8 Pub run serving up one of it's Saturday night specials

[Dennis]

oelala

[LRD]

Bracing. Fresh. Chilly. Pick your adjective

[seabreeze86]

Northerly from the Gods here just look at where our airmass originates from

[blizzard81]

 Mike Poole I think it will be an outlier in terms of the synoptic stretch of heights into the north pole at such a relatively early timeframe 8 to 10 days. Too early imo. 

[ICE COLD]

Now that is what I’m taking about . -15 850s in . Boom  

[Murray991]

-14 uppers into northern Scotland +270

[Mcconnor8]

 LRD With -15c 850s arriving into Scotland might be a bit more than chilly!

Edited November 30, 2024 by Mcconnor8

[seabreeze86]

Bit nippy in the wind