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Posted
  • Location: Bicester
  • Location: Bicester
Posted
23 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

We have to be careful not to get carried away by what looks at face value good synoptics ..

Good point having seen EC mean at 168,whilst it looks good the uppers are around -4 ,gefs was better at the same time

  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted

T168 all 3. Things change but I would say that with all 3 there is too much energy going over the top. 

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  • Like 4
Posted
  • Location: Bicester
  • Location: Bicester
Posted
14 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Things change but I would say that with all 3 there is too much energy going over the top. 

ECM for me looks the best ,with decent troughing going way south into europe,gfs to me is hinting at perhaps something colder but not sustained probably finishing on a uk high,if you want a 6/7 day cold spell..ECM looks good this morning 

  • Like 2
Posted
  • Location: Lancing
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Lancing
Posted

17330408624941754677304509117405.thumb.jpg.180fa95bca941b91ddd0891e7d0bddae.jpg17330409683881626887980334342687.thumb.png.36d6d99f0feaf31708e61ed426721a46.png

Pretty decent Mogreps 0z suite, better than any of the ones yesterday, and we are still looking at an earlier time frame than many here have in mind for a more likely cold spell towards mid December 

  • Like 5
  • Thanks 1
Posted
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl
Posted

The projected Greenland PV is there(runs over last 5 days or so).

Whilst this is the case,forget about prolonged cold. The jet is unlikely to play ball.

 

  • Like 2
Posted
  • Location: Norway
  • Location: Norway
Posted (edited)

The biggest problem to a more stabile cold chart is the MJO phase now (5) on its move maybe close to COD .....

its scaring all the time for now 

but its a start for this month with some good options i think 

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Edited by Dennis
  • Like 5
Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted

 Mcconnor8 both show the difference between today and Tuesday. 2m temp 14ish to 5ish.  Then back up again and then around the 9th back down to something similar to Tuesday. 
 

Welcomed but not going to get a coldies heart racing.  Where we go from there we will wait and see. 👍

  • Like 2
Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted (edited)

 Mike Poole

Brill ,thanks Mike..

As you said,a solid base moving forward.

MJO ,"where art 'thou"..

Whilst not a silver bullet a MJO fail will have negative effects for us ,for sure,we've seen it before...

 

Edited by northwestsnow
  • Like 5
Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted

 Blessed Weather

Not bad but I suspect we can see the northern arm running over the Atlantic high - we are going to need something from  somewhere to get that ridge up to Greenland.

Maybe I'm putting too much emphasis on the MJO but for me it's going to be crucial for the Atlantic sector..

  • Like 4
Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
Posted

This mornings ECM is another good example of what I was referring to yesterday. Don't make the mistake of just assuming a bitterly, cold, snowy spell is on its way because a model run is projecting a strong N/NE,ly. You need to look at the wider picture and note where the air mass is originating from.

Yet again this morning we see the core of the high pressure in the Atlantic rather than nearer to Greenland and so the toppling of any N,ly will always occur as low pressure ride over the top of the high.

Key feature of this mornings output is the possible storm bringing heavy rain, gales around +144.

  • Like 5
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Posted
  • Location: Oxford
  • Location: Oxford
Posted

Morning all,ECM continues with the Atlantic blocking bringing some really cold Arctic air down from the north then changing it’s orientation to a cold northeasterly.Not sure where the GFS is going from around the 8 th onwards but seem to be keen on low pressure displacing the Atlantic high,time will tell of course.

Posted
  • Location: Lancing
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Lancing
Posted (edited)

17330453646253415619934075618887.thumb.png.832b24812dbe9b9228e78c840c5422b4.png17330453797822761274960617779094.thumb.png.d08877002d3ffe814506ea833ff393a2.png

Slightly better amplification on the ICON 6z than the 0z, while the low pressure that @TEITShighlighted at Day 6 looks to be heading South of the UK here.

Edited by Mcconnor8
  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Posted
  • Location: Oxford
  • Location: Oxford
Posted

 northwestsnow Hi ECM keeps the high in a favourable position for some time and even with Atlantic low pressure systems trying to break the high down mild south westerlies do not seem the theme with ECM out in the unreliable time frame of course,all in all not bad for mid December.

  • Like 2
Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted

 Kasim Awan

You might be right ✅️ 

I'd disagree TBH ,without the block reaching higher lats the high will collapse in fairly short order - ala EC det.

We'll see ,goes without saying I hope you are right !

 

  • Like 4
Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire
Posted

Neither good nor bad this morning. As others have said, a holding pattern but I do wonder if we're going to get stuck in a kind of no man's land stalemate with the Atlantic High never getting far enough north for a cold spell and low pressure systems/the jet not having enough to squash it back to the Azores (or even worse central Europe)

  • Insightful 2
Posted
  • Location: Norway
  • Location: Norway
Posted

what does a MJO 5  due to west europe weather .... it means to much zonal weather - compact jetstream to a Vortex  position over ENE USA

 

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so to us in western Europe no strong blocking on Atlantic NAO and AO + and its difficult to see good cold air , but the PV is shifting these days on a PNA change so it may come to better positions from next weekend

Forecast December (as forseen now)

Dynamical models are in agreement favoring continued eastward propagation of the MJO over the Maritime Continent (phase 4-5) during the next few weeks. Later in December, there is some support for the MJO to enter the Western Pacific 😀 phase 6-7

EC sees into the COD later december so that would be not that good ....but there are options to watch 

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  • Like 2
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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted (edited)

 Kasim Awan

Interesting ..

It's important to remember it's a community forum whereby sometimes we disagree,we can have differing opinions and be fine with it,I get it wrong lots of times and I'm not afraid to say that ..😉

My opinion is without high latitude blocking any cold shot(s) will be brief ...

For example ,I pretty much wrote off the first two weeks of Dec and that looks wrong this morning..😕 

Edited by northwestsnow
  • Like 7
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