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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted
10 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

experience based model

What is that? 

Posted
  • Location: Hermon Pembrokeshire(184M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Anything severe/extreme
  • Location: Hermon Pembrokeshire(184M ASL)
Posted

 That ECM I'm guessing he means, he goes off past experiences with models

Many models showing a wind storm Saturday which in my opinion needs get more mention, could be quite severe🍃🍃

Posted (edited)

 That ECM After watching models in winter for 15 years, you begin to develop the ability to forsee potential by analysing the charts. I also compare synoptics to previous years to create analogues using machine learning.

Edited by Kasim Awan
  • Like 4
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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted (edited)

GFS much flatter upstream than EC

17330484236046191782250970344332.thumb.png.dce618bbd381cecb8fd554504fd0e54b.png

Looks awful to the NW..

Edited by northwestsnow
  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate. Elevation : Garbage
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate. Elevation : Garbage
Posted

Watch this run and pay particular attention to what happens over S Greenland - this is gonna be a rasper.

image.thumb.png.d911fd7d9345889fbb7028191ab9df1d.png

  • Like 1
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Posted
  • Location: Lancing
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Lancing
Posted (edited)

 northwestsnow I don't think it looks bad, might get another push of amplitication towards Greenland.

Edited by Mcconnor8
  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted

 Kasim Awan Thanks. What anolgues of previous years are you using to compare the current nhp and do you factor in back ground signals? 
 

 

  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: North West of Ireland
  • Location: North West of Ireland
Posted

I think if you are looking for a sustained cold spell with snow about the model output isn't great, but if you are looking for something more seasonal,   as opposed to a zonal  onslaught,    then the model  runs are decent enough. I'd say the best we can hope for in terms of snow is brief colder patterns  before the high cuts it's off by moving too close by or sinking in on top of us

  • Like 3
  • Insightful 1
Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted

Where’s your money? 🤣🤣

IMG_1791.png

  • Like 4
  • Insightful 1
Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted

It's possible later in the run we see retrogression,I'm referring to 168

GFS V EC

 

173304865239643328872648439722.thumb.png.bb05431d247c69af7d1fe9178f192076.png

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Posted
  • Location: Norway
  • Location: Norway
Posted (edited)

amazing 18+ 😵‍💫was seen here in Norway this morning

image.thumb.png.6545a806107a91b15fd6f6b0052a59db.png

Edited by Dennis
  • Like 1
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Posted
  • Location: Bicester
  • Location: Bicester
Posted (edited)

We will have one attempt at bringing some proper cold down from the north,the low at 210 over Svalbard if this fails,very average from the 6z,it didn’t sink south at all just ran west to east over the top of the HP

Edited by Lukesluckybunch
Adding
  • Thanks 1
Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted

 Lukesluckybunch not the 06z but I’d like to see more in these wrt to block going north if I was to be honest. Doesn’t mean it won’t but more would add to the confidence. 

IMG_1792.png

  • Like 2
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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Posted

Poor 6z gfs to the nw ie pressure rise.Na of the jet bullying the high

  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: Bicester
  • Location: Bicester
Posted
3 minutes ago, That ECM said:

not the 06z but I’d like to see more in these wrt to block going north if I was to be honest. Doesn’t mean it won’t but more would add to the confidence. 

Pert 3 looks unusual set up,not seen like that before 

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted (edited)

Whilst heights stay away from mainland Europe we are in the game 

17330495961866034574872778032263.thumb.png.c98d0916e25b98a090e4e5baf1f5a566.png

But in the reliable timeframe it's not great...

 

Edited by northwestsnow
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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted

 Lukesluckybunch I looked at that one earlier as I thought it was like ukmo at t168 wrt the low over us and I was intrigued to where it went. Then saw the later frames and had a similar conclusion to you so thought nah. 
 

 

  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: Norway
  • Location: Norway
Posted

the idea to see good winter cold next weekend is to early for UK -- well icon0z has other thoughts 

midmonth is next keypoint 

image.thumb.png.c026f092318ec00bc19b3b00125c5ced.pngimage.thumb.png.568d4ae03e04dad99cd0b902ef7d4919.pngimage.thumb.png.e4942d626f2217aa01e0b4f5a5738f66.png

  • Like 1
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