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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire
Posted (edited)

"I, for one, welcome our new AI overlords"

image.thumb.png.dbf7b01731a642729aa712af94b1383f.png

ECM AIFS 6z

image.thumb.png.653704768b643e2e41e2a1b2b3606e2d.png

image.thumb.png.ececc52b8ba317321f9900cb94234334.png

Edited by LRD
  • Like 4
Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
Posted

 LRD Quite a plausible scenario, slider low disruption should heights hold further NE, the PV lobe to the NW spitting out injections of energy on a NW-SE jet. 

  • Like 4
Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
Posted

I have just been quietly watching things in the background watching  the runs coming out.There's been some uncertainty that's for sure but i think we are starting to see the way forward to  day 10 with mean charts i good agreement..The day 8 gefs stamps show pretty much the expected evolution beyond the high as things flatten out upstream.

image.thumb.png.8248163057b72e51d57b1a7f3bedb34e.png

Frustrating in a way as the gaps in the tpv reflect the weaker that average zonal wind speeds at lower levels but  they are still brisk enough to keep us in the westerly pattern with occasional ridging - some polar maritime air in the mix at times.

We look like having a wait for anything exciting cold wise for at least week or two and see if the mjo heads into phase 6 and hopefully traveling further east into the Pacific  and this changes things down the line.

image.thumb.png.e1ad871047da32deae6e88859e0f7a0d.png

There is also warming at the top of the strat showing ,as already mentioned by Blue, and worth monitoring .

GFS.

image.thumb.png.84dd9f62f555e6b554702c5372a45c57.png

Last ECM

image.thumb.png.5b8b7e90b69740d4b2c2296f0eceae1d.pngecmwfzm_u_f240.png

we can see the first signs of warming at the top and the slowing of zonal winds over the pole.We have seen these many times but  the warming often isn't enough to filter down to split the vortex .More likely we get a displacement pushing the pv off it's polar perch which can in itself change the 500 pattern.

Meanwhile back at  the 850hPa level

ECM ens temp. graph

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In the shorter term a wild 48 hrs to come so stay safe everyone.Into next week much quieter under the influence of a high by the looks but just some hope of something different to come later on.  

  • Like 4
  • Insightful 1
Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
Posted

 bluearmy I just think it had become very self conscious of all the negative comments it was getting about it's recent runs being 'sheet'! Lol

  • Like 5
Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted (edited)

 Big Kev

Yes sorry I'm working I should have said right now it's not a great outlook and we dont want to be relying on a SSW 🙂

Edited by northwestsnow
  • Like 2
Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
Posted

 northwestsnow Unfortunately a large amount of time of recent winters we have to and that hasn't worked in our favour since 2018...January has been appalling for snow in the south east since 2013, surely but by murphy's law that has to change sooner rather than later even with GW.

  • Like 6
Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Posted

 Froze were the Days The expansion of the hadley cell has been been a ball breaker in my opinion.The cold air is available  but the synoptics etc are limited

  • Like 3
Posted
  • Location: Lancing
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Lancing
Posted (edited)

17335014169291215870560352908128.thumb.png.85fa584cf84da6875a0653290a68669b.png

This AIFS 12z run from Sunday last week was pretty much spot on for Darragh, very impressive at a 5/6 Day lead time when no other models were showing it at that time. It persisted with showing this every run thereafter.

Edited by Mcconnor8
  • Like 7
Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire
Posted

 bluearmy Yes, I haven't looked at it every day but every time I have, lately, it's been rubbish from a cold point of view!

Dunno what the verification stats are for it

  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Posted

Better nhp on the gfs 12z at the 200 hrs mark.pv looks weaker and hopefully  on the move

Posted
  • Location: Lancing
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Lancing
Posted

 LRD It verifies very well at Day 5/6 compared to other models, not sure about Day 8+ but no model really verifies well there.

20240811_201405.jpg

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 2
Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted (edited)

T198 on these runs, and pretty much back to bog-standard fayre, e.g. GFS 12z:

IMG_9599.thumb.png.c73584f2e177b058a2d89c1b94b37d7e.png

I do kind of feel there was a window of opportunity, before the massive downgrades of the last three days.  Something could have happened. But it didn’t.

This isn’t to discount the possible favourable teleconnections later in the month.  But they won’t be pushing at an open door, now, I think that ship has left the port.  The Greenland vortex, and heights to the south, will all have to be overcome once again from a standing start…

Edited by Mike Poole
  • Like 4
  • Thanks 1
Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Posted (edited)

 Mike Poole looks better at day 10 be it fi.Also a bit better on the 10hpa front

 

Edited by swfc
  • Like 3
Posted
  • Location: Saddleworth, historically West Yorks, 225m asl
  • Weather Preferences: All 4 seasons and a good mixture of everything and anything!
  • Location: Saddleworth, historically West Yorks, 225m asl
Posted (edited)

Is the candy close to the eye for once? 

GFS +240

1733503429385451886426080518410.thumb.png.c5e5acfa65487e5e9b1f37bccfe3d317.png

+264

17335034770367234552999839896636.thumb.png.9825ec087c51aae8a0746bbb558a52ae.png

 

Edit.. yes it is!

 

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Edited by StretfordEnd1996
  • Like 4
  • Thanks 1
Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted (edited)

 swfc The 10 hPa front could be a double edged sword!

But, fair point, my last post didn’t age well did it?!  I didn’t see that big amplification coming on this run.

Edited by Mike Poole
  • Like 3
Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Posted

 Mike Poole Tbh i think its a bit optimistic  mike on that run but who knows

  • Like 2
Posted
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland. 6m Below Sea Level.
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, snow, ice. Very hot or very cold.
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland. 6m Below Sea Level.
Posted

That's suddenly a lot of cold coming our way on GFS +330h.

6dec-GFS12-330.thumb.png.8a6f53a7d4c8065c453ad5130e0d5cdc.png6dec-GFS12-T850-330.thumb.png.36732b574387a2a8b299e44d722dd92d.png

  • Like 5
Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Location: Cambridge
Posted

Recently, the main scenarios in GFS and ECM models are the hottest outputs , this is an interesting situation, but it is open to discussion about model reliability

  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: Leeuwarden. Friesland, the Netherlands
  • Weather Preferences: Cold with a lot of snow
  • Location: Leeuwarden. Friesland, the Netherlands
Posted

Looks like EC was spot on regarding the shortwave South of Greenland and flattening things out (was hoping it was wrong tbh). All models go with that scenario so far. Not a great start of the evening. 

  • Like 3
Posted
  • Location: Carrick-on-Shannon, Roscommon, Ireland 70m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow , sunshine
  • Location: Carrick-on-Shannon, Roscommon, Ireland 70m asl
Posted

Running through the Gfs ensemble’s, only out till +186 and am pleasantly surprised. Don’t have time to post on here unfortunately!

  • Like 2
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