Winter Approaching: Forecast and Model Discussion Commentary

[LRD]

Don't get me wrong, it's FI and it won't look like this but how do you go from this frame

...to it all collapsing as soon as it begins? There is a nice gap for high pressure to be sucked into over Greenland and the pole, no raging PV in East Canada or Greenland, PV focused over Siberia and yet it just falls apart at the slightest hint of pressure from the NW

[Jacob]

 Cold Winter Night I really hope it becomes a trendsetter. Would be nice to get snow when days are the shortest

[Purga]

A potentially spiffing Christmas set-up on the cards if this where anywhere near likely to verify.

[northwestsnow]

UKMO v GFS 168

 

[Legend.Ice]

 northwestsnow

The term only 168 hours but there are big differences, now even after 96 hours it requires very detailed analysis, chaotic atmosphere loves surprises 🌪

[Jacob]

17th dec onward has potential for a decent cold spell

[Lukesluckybunch]

Well guys the past couple of weeks is a perfect example of how difficult it is to get a decent cold spell in the uk,we have had some wonderful charts almost perfect sypnotics,and now we are facing mild wind and rain,with only fleeting cold spells!as somone else said December is looking our best shot for something cold ,having seen quite a few long rangers,people often talk about the MJO and other background signals I will be honest I don’t understand all them things..but what’s currently showing is not looking great for the next week or two

[TSNWK]

Zonal….defo the theme of this weeks modelling has been the pattern switching to Atlantic driven.

 

 

 

[damianslaw]

 northwestsnow Quite a difference, GFS more amplified. As said think the detail post 11-12th needs time to iron out.

[mulzy]

 TSNWK It is not surprising, as zonal has been well advertised for a while in the short to medium term. I think we need to be looking from December 20th onwards for anything remotely wintry, and NWP so far is not super promising in that regard. Let's hope things will break for us shortly.

Edited December 6, 2024 by mulzy

[swfc-ocs]

 mulzy good points. Also given our location it is a default situation for the uk.bog standard  even given gw

[johncam]

 damianslaw ECM the same sad to say right to the end. 

[swfc-ocs]

 johncam its what the nhp is showing. You cant change it.Thing is it can if the synoptic systems change.looking at it imo west to east mobility is the form horse

[northwestsnow]

EC det is x rated.

Incredible how that shortwave EC 00z picked up on yesterday has destroyed a promising NH pattern.

Perhaps longer term telecommunications will work in our favour but that looks an aspiration at the moment. 

We have a drier colder interlude next week I suppose but the last 48 hours have taken  a really bad turn for coldies .

[gooseyboy82]

 northwestsnow  it’s around this time in December you throw the towel in on dickens style Christmas ….. well ? 
 

ps my phone just alarmed for red warning off the government…. 90 mph Wind and rain depressing as it gets …

Edited December 6, 2024 by goosey007

[bluearmy]

AI back to normal gash output 

[northwestsnow]

 bluearmy

That's not a suprise ...

Exeter have remained bullish on a Greg Lake run up to Christmas for a while ..

Looks like we will need some patience for now ...

 

[northwestsnow]

 

EC 46 has upgraded this evening   

Week 1 & 2

noticably so..

can we trust it ?

Unbelievable Jeff...

 

Edited December 6, 2024 by northwestsnow

[WYorksWeather]

EC clusters below.

Days 3-4

Still the fairly cold easterly pattern at days 3-4. Not notably cold though. Generally dry.

Days 5-7

Cluster 1 (39%) has high pressure remaining in control at days 5 and 6, so relatively cold and dry easterlies. By day 7, possibly turning more unsettled and colder with a gap between heights to our NW and NE, with no real signal for pressure over the UK.

Cluster 2 (31%) keeps high pressure in control at day 5 and day 6. Signs of the Atlantic breaking through at day 7, turning milder and more unsettled.

Cluster 3 (29%) is similar to Cluster 1, but with slightly more of a signal for low pressure at day 7.

The OP was in Cluster 2.

Days 8-10

Cluster 1 (61%) gradually breaks down the blocking, with an initial north-westerly becoming more westerly by day 10. Unsettled.

Cluster 2 (39%) has a mid-Atlantic ridge, with an initial north-westerly. Becoming stormy at day 9 with a deep low centred to the north of the UK, then remaining generally unsettled at day 10.

The OP was in Cluster 2.

Days 11-15

Only one extended range cluster, which doesn't tell us very much as it will just reflect the ensemble mean. This chart suggests a mainly westerly pattern, with a milder trend from an initial westerly or north-westerly to more of a south-westerly. Generally unsettled, possibly very unsettled at times.

Summary

After Storm Darragh, a cold but relatively dry period through the first half of next week. Beyond that, the trend is quite strongly towards an Atlantic-driven pattern, though at least initially this will not be too mild with a westerly or north-westerly.

The trend beyond day 10 suggests a continued Atlantic-driven pattern, but best not to read too much into that since it is based on a single cluster.

Overall, looks like pretty standard stuff for the time of year after the beginning of next week according to these clusters, with a wind direction between NW and SW, and generally unsettled conditions.

[northwestsnow]

Is ec46 run on 00z data? that's a  superb run

 

 WYorksWeather

EC 46 sticks up two fingers to the clusters...

[suxer]

 northwestsnow Always rated EC46 

[WYorksWeather]

 northwestsnow Well not necessarily actually - bit more agreement than you might think. Week 1 good agreement on cold next week. Week 2 is fairly transitional on the clusters - still quite chilly at first with more of a north-westerly, but then becoming milder as it swings round to a westerly or south-westerly. 

[northwestsnow]

 suxer

You've no idea how I want it to be right ..

I rate it but I know many don't..

 

[E17boy]

Hi peeps

hope you all are well. A lot of wild weather coming our way this weekend, stay safe all. Just catched up on the models and I feel the sinking feeling , however it’s only 6 th Dec today still 25 days of December left. Hopefully eventually we will see changes, I say this with great caution just seen the mets long range and it talks about signs of higher pressure in the south towards the end of December. This is the last thing we want to see .  However many of times we have seen their long range change and end of December is still a long way off. I wish I could add something more positive tonight but so little in the sign of any notable cold coming our way for now. 
 

Stay safe from the storm all

regards

[northwestsnow]

Winder what @Mike Poole @bluearmy

Make of ec46 ....

" Winder "

The weather dating app

Edited December 6, 2024 by northwestsnow