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Posted
  • Location: Leeuwarden. Friesland, the Netherlands
  • Weather Preferences: Cold with a lot of snow
  • Location: Leeuwarden. Friesland, the Netherlands
Posted (edited)

Well, that's sobering. Things have changed rapidly and not in our favour. On the other hand, the colder pattern still needs to be established and who knows what may change. Atm there are no straws to clutch apart from the Vortex being projected over the Eurasian side. Also the notable cold air mass over Russia and the Barentsz sea is perhaps interesting (but gets washed away by the raging jet). It seems like, if the following chart verifies, SST's may finally drop. (It's day 10, I know)

ECMOPEU12_168_2.thumb.png.75c36951f798b8f795c34eeafa5e78d0.pngECMOPEU12_240_34.thumb.png.f3f171bd52833fcfd810f18b500d4a60.png

Edited by AO-
Posted
  • Location: Southside Glasgow (135m)
  • Weather Preferences: Beginning with S ending with W ;)
  • Location: Southside Glasgow (135m)
Posted

 northwestsnow I think using EC 46 for Week 1-3 is ideal and when I would expect it to pick up trends and maybe have some consistency so this could be a start but I think after last winter my confidence in EC 46 has took a hit 😂

  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: Glasgow
  • Location: Glasgow
Posted

The change in model runs is happening daily. I feel patience is needed when it comes to weather. Hopefully things flip for the better. Tomorrow will be 40cm of snow UK wide. By sunday back to mobile and not a flake in sight. 😂🥶❄️🥶

  • Like 3
  • Insightful 1
Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted

 northwestsnow It looks decidedly mediocre to me.  For weeks 1 and 2 I’d defer to the 12z ops and ensembles.  After that, there’s not much of a signal.

And many fewer members going for a SSW than recently.

Should post a chart, really:

IMG_9581.thumb.jpeg.d21683e618a08d7b0d0e110a911ed658.jpeg

 

  • Like 3
Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted

 northwestsnow Which two weeks?  I hate those charts with no captions.

I was looking at the heights and pressure anomalies myself and there is no strong signal after week 1.

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted

 northwestsnow Ops will be better guide than 46 to w/b 9th, ensembles will be better guide than 46 to the following week. 

Tea leaves will be better guide than 46 to weeks 3-6.

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Location: Cambridge
Posted

again the main scenario is one of the hottest outputs, why is this strange situation? the last 6 updates are like this..

FD59FC6E-CC02-4441-A157-37C1BCED1E4B.thumb.png.c2cd08c37a6a4eb5f8f30cf30fa842b0.png

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted (edited)

 northwestsnow  16/23rd is forming up on a nw euro trough.  Each day sinks the 552 dam line a little further south.  Currently showing through Brittany 

But if you look at the 5 day anomoly heights on the eps for 16/21 dec, this is effectively the same output. You wouldn’t use a 46 day model when you’ve got a 15 day option running at 9km. 

so I’m not going to use the 46 for week 2.  Just for Week 3 and occasionally week 4.  Xmas week currently shows a mid Atlantic high anomoly. That has potential to ridge north because it also shows the tpv still split,  I’d be looking at the next few days on this particular week on the 46 to see if begins to find low euro anoms. 

 Legend.Ice tbf, there arent that many cold options in the extended period. The op is one of the warmer runs but there are plenty of similar temp runs.

Edited by bluearmy
  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
Posted

Personally I think it says everything on the current prognosis for cold and snow that ec46 is being touted. Trumped only by a 384 ensemble member being. posted 

I don't rate ec46  one jot!

Det runs are pretty darn good now to around day 7... you rarely see movements between previous and current run when flicking through on meteocile up to day 7 at least.

Then I try to see where the ensembles are grouping up to around day 10..

After which a  broad trend to day 14.

Beyond its educated speculation! Choas theory just make it far too impossible to have any real confidence at all.

 

  • Insightful 1
Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
Posted (edited)

 Mike Poole Tea leaves are a better guide than every model in the longer term Mike. 😂 

Edited by Chesil View
  • Like 2
  • Insightful 1
Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Location: Cambridge
Posted

 bluearmy

thanks ,but Prediction of the near term is easier and more accurate than prediction of the long term. The simulation that makes a big deviation for the near term is likely to be wrong for the far term. That's why I care about focusing on the near problems

  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex
Posted

Truly wretched

ECMOPEU12_360_2.thumb.png.3ffbf314b333a1cddd54a6a6dfa02b70.png

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted

 Legend.Ice just noticed that graph you posted was only out to the 12th dec.  my point is the same. The op is very much from the warmer options but there aren’t many runs which are chilly or cold.  The 00z run op was quite close to the mean of the members in that same period. 

  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: Lancing
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Lancing
Posted

 Legend.Ice if you look at the ground temps it isn't actually hotter, the Operational runs have been leading the emsemble packs regarding the amount of high pressure influence.

Screenshot_20241206_212410_Chrome.jpg

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Posted
  • Location: Milton Keynes
  • Weather Preferences: Anything a bit extreme!
  • Location: Milton Keynes
Posted (edited)
On 25/11/2024 at 17:35, dain_bramaged said:

The models, in general, did not pick up this November cold spell really until very close to time and I expect it to be the same again in December.

 

On 25/11/2024 at 17:35, dain_bramaged said:

So, lots of dreary looking charts in the meantime, with one or two giving us little snippets or ideas and the cold apparently coming from nowhere as it does not look conductive for cold outbreaks

On 25/11/2024 at 17:35, dain_bramaged said:

With low pressure over Scandinavia and higher pressure over Greenland/Iceland being the general 

 

On 25/11/2024 at 17:35, dain_bramaged said:

I mentioned back in September and mid October about the 3 possible dates based on this MJO cycle as being the 20th of November, 19th December and 4th of January

 

Just thought I'd start with these quotes as I think they are still quite pertinent.

These thoughts have not changed. Remember I am in no way saying prolonged cold, but that the period around the 19th of December was always our next shot in following the predicted spell in November, which somewhat took a few by surprise, given the background signals showing prior and right up to the wintry snap on November. You can see last week one or two started sniffing at an idea, I wasn't going with it personally as I could see it was not sustainable, for a few days at least, as there was far too much energy out west to deal with. 

 

However, and despite the background signals, the horrible looking charts etc I say hold out. There is in fact much to play for and as I've mentioned we are still on track for something wintry. 

 

First image. If you look top right corner i have circled the high pressure to the North of the UK blue, low pressure diving to the south in red, with the red arrows showing the general direction of the jet stream. To the top left you can see Scandinavia and and the high pressure...after the low below has exited from the North...the date is 19th December. 

I mentioned the jet stream will start going south and this looks like where an Atlantic ridge,or high pressure  should develop. This time ringing into Greenland, albeit temporarily I think but long enough...

 

You can see that low I mentioned in the jet stream and most image of the world...it correlates nicely with the 2nd GFS image, showing it exiting in an southerly direction  dragging the cold air down with it. You can see with the temp temperatures chart at 850hpa (1500m or 5000ft) the air is around -10...you can again see the low sas it darts south. You can see what might wait in the wings to the east im the 3rd GFS image.

 

4th and 5th images show the warming going  on the top of the Stratophere 137,000ft(1hpa) and 10hpa( 98000ft) and roughly the middle.  May start to slow the pv down.

 

MjO bar ECMWF is keen to get the party going...

 

All to play for IMHO.

 

 

20241206_205706.png

h850t850eu-2.png

gfs_T850_eu_53.png

gfs_T850_eu_65.png

18_384_arctic1-1.webp

12_384_arctic10.webp

 

BOMM_BC.png

CANM.png

Edited by dain_bramaged
  • Like 5
Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted

 Dennis using a gfs operational run at day 15 to illustrate the 50hpa spv (when it doesn’t agree with the gefs mean) is a bit of a stretch dennis 

the spv is likely to sit on our side of the pole but not currently looking  like it will be on an axis which promotes a scandi trough.   Time for that to change 

  • Like 2
Posted
  • Location: West Yorkshire
  • Location: West Yorkshire
Posted

Just a quick comment - not to criticise anyone in particular but I have to point out a bit of revisionist history going on - a fair few now saying that there was never supposed to be a cold spell early December, and that the latter half was where it was at.

That simply isn't the case - only a week or so ago it looked like this weekend could usher in a protracted cold spell with more of a full bore easterly or north-easterly. Not all the output was going for it, and it wasn't the most consistent signal, but it was there.

Just scrolled back through to check that my memory wasn't deceiving me and it was only about a week ago, around November 30th or so, that a lot of good charts were still be posting by many people (myself included) for potential around this upcoming weekend and beyond. That has now downgraded to more of an easterly / south-easterly, followed by a potential return of the Atlantic.

Certainly have no issue with people ramping up the cold potential, but I don't think there's anything wrong with admitting that there's been a bit of a letdown regarding the second week of December, which was previously looking promising.

  • Like 2
Posted
  • Location: Lancing
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Lancing
Posted

17335233009512653448639875198690.thumb.png.78c85b8d74f133397a5d38e1f95229b9.png

Pub run at least making an attempt at some amplification at Day 6

  • Like 3
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