Winter Approaching: Forecast and Model Discussion Commentary

[Dennis]

 bluearmy

gfs12z was nice to that 

[TSNWK]

Ummmm amping better here and uk high holding up better.. pulls up chair…

[northwestsnow]

 TSNWK completely at odds with the much flatter UKMO / EURO..

Hey,not saying won't happen but it's got to be an outsider ..

 

[TSNWK]

 northwestsnow less of an outsider though than ec46 week 4

[northwestsnow]

 TSNWK leave my precious ( ec46) alone

[Matty88]

We have a decent chilly and frosty spell coming up next week with blocking in place, I don’t think any model has yet sussed out how that will truly resolve itself after next week? The short term will have a big influence on the long term - so I would personally bin any model signals beyond 7 days… for now. 
 

Anyone putting all their eggs in the mild basket beyond the next 7 days does so at their own peril!! 

[blizzard81]

Feels like we've taken a step backwards today. Very difficult over the last 25 years to reel in winter during the second half of December. 

[bluearmy]

The pub run loosely following the 12z but with a variation on a theme 

[damianslaw]

 blizzard81 Ah reliable is very short at present, 5-6 days top, all to play for second half of December. GFS18z is much more amplified, heights holding in the vicinity of UK, no rampant westerly jet foreseen. 

Edited December 6, 2024 by damianslaw

[Ladyofthestorm]

 Mike Poole I don't know Mike , it does not look decisively Zonal either after the next 48 hrs or so. 

I still think we will enter a colder more blocked phase puat Christmas. MJO charts beginning to move towards agreement of zone 6 by mid month to 3rd week. 

[blizzard81]

BA and Damian make good points. Especially with regards to the GFS. No real tpv from hell on the last two GFS ops as opposed to the ECM. The candle is waning slightly but still burning.

Edited December 6, 2024 by blizzard81

[Chesil View]

 Met4Cast post of the day. 

Thank you Met4Cast.

[damianslaw]

 blizzard81 ECM looks primed to drop a deep trough to our NE and heights building strong to west ridging north. 

[Sparky68]

I have to admire all of your unwavering faith in the models, you guys keep this place alive.

[blizzard81]

 damianslaw Hmmmm. Doesn't do that in the extended on tonight's run. GFS still holding the torch though.

 Sparky68 I admire the fact that you admire our faith in the models

[damianslaw]

 blizzard81 Ah, perhaps need to learn how to read the charts as that is how I would expect the next runs to go. Alas all conjecture, tomorrow is another day. 

[blizzard81]

 damianslaw It's still a watching brief for me w/c 16th December. A step back generally today but like you say, tomorrow is another day.

[LRD]

45 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

BA and Damian make good points. Especially with regards to the GFS. No real tpv from hell on the last two GFS ops as opposed to the ECM. The candle is waning slightly but still burning.

Plus the ECM op was amongst the warmer members of the ensemble suite. Not saying many others show Narnia but perhaps not as bleak (for those who want cold) as it first appears

[blizzard81]

 LRD Good post

[LRD]

Ok, it's not a winter wonderland but it's not blowtorch either is it(?)

[near northampton]

 WYorksWeather indeed the 7th/8th was touted by several posters as the beginning of a significant "cooler" spell at the very least. I do think that the plethora of data ago now available (versus even 10 years ago) at ever lengthening timescales can lead to false narratives being formed. Of course that is not a reason for those inclined to keep looking for there preferred weather type.

[Matty88]

 near northampton not sure what you mean - as it is turning a lot cooler and blocked following the clearance of this storm it could have been colder yes but still holds potential, charts flip flopping on final resolution after next week. 

[Legend.Ice]

First week of January view from veteran model CFS scope, not bad at all

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[Dennis]

Good weekend UK friends

the party will not happen before midmonth MJO is not helping perfekt yet 

 .....but we see an arctic HP coming up so that could lead to a new pattern NH late dec24

 

GEM 

Edited December 7, 2024 by Dennis