Winter Approaching: Forecast and Model Discussion Commentary

[Updated_Weather]

Is it time to wake up for a new chase?

been a while since I last posted!

[Empire Of Snow]

 easton888 , please don't unless they share the same knowledge and passion for charts and model discussion. Learnt the hard way here. My son is now checking the models and each run which is great but if you want to go this route have in mind you have to explain how everything works. 

[Lukesluckybunch]

Colder 850’s incoming on the 12z,as early as 90h

[MP-R]

 edinburgh_1992 I think an incursion from the Atlantic is inevitable beyond this cold spell, nothing pessimist about that at all, I would just hope it's not a long drawn out affair. Something along the lines of 2005 would do nicely. 

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Edited November 13 by MP-R

[Allseasons-Si]

the gfs 12z has the colder air slightly further S/SE at t96.

[HarvSlugger]

 Empire Of Snow my dad got me into weather when I was like Primary school, I was obsessed, still am,even more so and I am now the one explaining things to him

[pinball wizard]

For those in the south it will be worthwhile looking at accumulated rainfall versus predicted snow cover charts during periods where snow is possible. I've used this method in the past in marginal conditions and found it helps to pick out when a dumping is likely and when, as last winter, a slushy mess is on the cards.

[Mike Poole]

Early doors, but slightly higher heights in Greenland on UKMO at T96, vs 0z T108:

[tight isobar]

Greeny wave clustering here- this should aid waa better at disolvment clearance - another stonker upcoming !!

Edited November 13 by tight isobar

[TSNWK]

good - so far trends of heights in greenland diluting has stopped...

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

 Mike Poole I'd be inclined to say the south is gonna struggle with them heights spreading north east hope im wrong 

[Speedbird]

 happyfoxyboy snowmaker for the north of Scotland initially before it heads south

[Howie]

I don’t really like how the Azores high seems to be encroaching from west on this run

 Severe Siberian icy blast I agree 

[SollyOlly]

This year, I promised myself that I wouldn't get caught up in it again, only for the bitterness of disappointment...but hell, here I am again, spending as much time on the forum as I am working! A nice early taste of winter would be very welcome...!!

[That ECM]

Nice.

[Don]

31 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Don’t you dare. Anybody telling their family at this stage will be banished back to the failed 2012 easterly for all eternity. 

That's THE be the biggest sin to commit on here!!  

[Allseasons-Si]

UKMO 144,...that's better

v's the 00z at 156.

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

 That ECM well that's a relief.

[Notty]

 That ECM

[Mike Poole]

 Severe Siberian icy blast Yes, there might be a delay in getting the colder air south here, but no drama!

UKMO T144 v 0z T156:

Markedly better over Greenland, so that should aid the evolution from here on.

Edited November 13 by Mike Poole

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

This could well end up being the first proper cold spell that doesn't implode in what feels like years.

To have the UKMO back track from the 0z is a big relief and a great sign

[Mcconnor8]

 Severe Siberian icy blast

Not the biggest fan of the GFS though, really struggles to Amplify into Eastern Greenland enough, it will probably still end up as a good run though.

Edited November 13 by Mcconnor8

[Met4Cast]

Much better UKMO but the GFS isn’t playing ball, develops yet another shortwave around Iceland which blocks a proper connect between the two highs. 

[SollyOlly]

Snow would of course be the absolute bestest, but tbh I would love just to have proper cold, to 'need' to wear a thick coat, hat, gloves, scarf...that lovely cosy feeling of home after cold weather outdoors...this is lining up nicely. Trying desperately to manage my hopes now! If we can't have snow, just give me sunny and cold...if we can't have sunny, I'll just take the cold!!

[northwestsnow]

I prefer ukmo over gfs

GFS is becoming a mess.