Winter Approaching: Forecast and Model Discussion Commentary

[Allseasons-Si]

Now the gfs has a wobble with the shortwave drama over the Icelandic region stalling the arctic flow south,let's see how it goes but it is not a good run.

Edit: it turns out OK by 174 with a possible Noreaster down the line

the GEM looks good also at 132.

Edited November 13 by Allseasons-Si
typo

[Notty]

 northwestsnow Trump is already sabotaging GFS with a view to closing down NOAA

Edited November 13 by Notty

[HarvSlugger]

If ukmo and ecm are good I'm happy, GFS is just doing it's usual messy run, when does gem start rolling out?

[MJB]

Met Office 10 day trend is worth a watch 

[TSNWK]

need a good UKM168 to steady the nerves.. 

Keeps you on your toes this game - I was focusing on GH heights dilution - which had stopped, now we have issues from azores high and shortwaves cutting the flow... relentless

 

[Penguin16]

Gfs has been all over the place 

[phil nw.]

UK and GFS have the cold across the whole of the UK by day 5

-4 to -6c at that stage with -8c readings heading south later.That's a cold outbreak at anytime of year by UK standards.

[Mike Poole]

Meanwhile, the GEM is quietly rolling out another corker, T138:

Greenland high very solid.

[Battleground Snow]

 HarvSlugger out to 132 so far, looks consistent with it's 00z run

[mountain shadow]

Year after year GFS remains cannon fodder.

Stick with UKMO and ECM

[Mcconnor8]

 Mike Poole

Scandi/Polar low dropping onto cold uppers, looks lovely 

[tight isobar]

 mountain shadow - Never ignore gfs- especially with a twitch in dynamics!- we’ll see if the ec12z notes the micro dramas!!?

[Lukesluckybunch]

A decent run,but that high is annoyingly close by,it’s trying bits hardest to push everything northeast!

[adrianh]

GFS is messy but looks like one of those runs where somewhere gets a big dumping if you are on the right side of the cold/warm boundary

[Frosty.]

Hey, we know it can’t stay cold forever..don’t we? …! But the Gfs 12z op had a good go and for that..I salute it! …it was a fun ride though wasn’t it?..following all this drab benign mild nonsense…fingers crossed the upcoming colder unsettled spell amounts to what coldies are hoping for!?  .. peace! ..heaven forbid I upset anyone!   

 

Edited November 13 by Frosty.

[Geordiesnow]

I got to admit, it's all starting to get complicated and messy, we got Sunday's shallow low which is still not clear cut how quickly it will clear and this is important it clears quickly so it allows the northerly winds to set in. There will be a period of northerly winds I am sure of that but just how much cold air is going to get pushed in is a huge uncertainty but the trend has been for the northerly to turn colder as the angle of the cold is heading more towards Northern Scotland instead of between Iceland and Scotland. 

It's important to get as much cold in as possible(ideally between -6 and -8 850s spreading down) before any possible interference from the west. There has been a trend for a shallow low to head in from the west on the GFS and UKMO outputs which could give some snowfall on its northern edge if the air ahead of it is cold enough and it comes in at the right angle. 

I would prefer the ridging to be better and for the northerly to definitely be established before any disturbances come into play and it might still do yet(as ECM so far has not shown this) if we get the improved ridging runs again.

All very marginal and tricky stuff unfortunately so will be plenty of nail biting how the models play out regarding details. I would say though, any members living in Northern and Eastern Scotland then I would be getting quite hopeful now because it looks all but likely we will see a cold northerly flow here with snow showers piling in from Sunday evening onwards.

[That ECM]

Longer term will be fine I think but ukmo building stronger heights is a mahooooosive positive. Was the one I was a bit nervous about viewing.

[northwestsnow]

GFS looks very wet by day 8.

No ta

there is always one model isnt there !

[Met4Cast]

We await the GEFS to see where the det sits as usual, the mean looks much cleaner but that’s unlikely to show the smaller shortwaves so may not necessarily mean anything. 

Big win to see the UKMO strengthen the block though & GEM is a thing of beauty. GFS det the outsider for now..

[Geordiesnow]

 mountain shadow

That same ECM that for 2 runs in a row that had the ridging so far westwards we were struggling to get any polar airmass and this place including me was in a melt down? 

In fairness to the GFS it is picking up on the reducing heights around the southern tip of Greenland which allows a low/shortwave come through which could ironically give some a snow event is now been picked up on by the UKMO? Tonight's ECM will be interesting which way it will go on the ridging side of things.

[Jacob]

As someone in the south, I’m really hoping for what’s virtually the best case scenario, which is to get thick snow that sticks, that falls right before or on the weekend. It would be nice to wake up on a weekend to snow, and I would love to have a walk with a friend through it

[Mcconnor8]

 Met4Cast GFS is that annoying child, always putting out great runs when no other model is interested then when the others come on board it decides to revolt

[nick sussex]

The shortwave running se could deliver but the track is still uncertain aswell as the depth .

We want a shallow feature . The 850s have improved over the last few runs which helps on the snow front .

[Djdazzle]

Several times in the past, the GFS has been the best model at picking up and modelling shortwaves in the Iceland area. I'm not saying that it's correct, but it would be very foolish to dismiss it. GFS has, on occasion, been the outsider and subsequently proved correct.

[TSNWK]

What time is ukm168 out please and where can I find it