Will it? Won't it? Nowcasting snow risk Monday and Tuesday

[Geordiesnow]

 Mcconnor8 It's not that much different is it? And besides let's see what the actual radar ends up saying seeing as that is what really counts.

I do think there been way too much over emphasis on positioning in the last few days, probably happens in normal conditions but because it's been scruitnised, it made it feel more chaotic than it actually is.

I think the biggest uncertainty is whether the low was going to end up a major deep low or a shallow one. Thankfully the shallow low scenario has won out but even then, it's not as crazy as it seems because if the low ended up on the cold side of the jet, it would of intensify. I assume that is what going to happen eventually to it because it's looking quite a nasty storm over Denmark potentially. 

[Spikey M]

 Daniel_c150311 some of it. South East Wales probably will. South West Wales probably not.

[Daniel_c150311]

 Spikey M  thats good to know.

 

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the back end of the low pressure is slowing down while the front tend is travelling faster, is this going to cause that split thingy that bring 2 rounds of snow and pushes the snow further south?

[Taylorthesnowman]

Personally think the net have the warning area spot on . Can see much snow if any south of Birmingham .here in Liverpool I'd expect some sleet perhaps a bit of snow but can't see any of it laying 

[badgerhud]

 Daniel_c150311 looks to push it more north if anything

[booferking]

Personally I'd forget the models and watch the radar look out your window it's nowcast situation.

[Mcconnor8]

Will be some pretty heavy stuff on the snow boundary here on the ECM overnight, then snow through Wales during the day.

[Jackski4]

 Mcconnor8 do you have the snow depth charts mate?

[Penrith Snow]

Looking at the latest radar note that rain now extends north beyond the coast of Northern Ireland so unless the low really slides SE rather than moves east as predicted then the MetO have this spot on, dry in Scotland, snow in Northern England and rain in the Midlands, the Met have been consistent on this for days now despite other models wanting to push the whole thing south.

Andy

Edited November 18 by Penrith Snow

[AdrianHull]

 Taylorthesnowman I'll put my house on it that there won't be any lying snow south of Birmingham below 200m. Even if the snow accumulation charts say so...

The data just doesn't stack up.

Edited November 18 by AdrianHull

[DaveL]

Looks like my old stamping ground  of Buxton (used to work and 'play' there) is in for a right dumping overnight! Many happy memories of negotiating Long Hill in deep snow! Hopefully it's panning out Just as I was hoping last Friday.

But down here in S Hants I'll be lucky to see a frost midweek... and I never expected more than that.

 

Edited November 18 by DaveL

[Sleet30031972]

 Penrith Snow the met office warning is for the Midlands? 

[HammerJack]

 Jacob in my back yard!

[Nick123]

This is ridiculous. If you watch the metoffice video forecast snow line is up to about blyth Northumberland. If you watch the bbc forecast the snow line barely makes Yorkshire!

[Ali1977]

 Nick123 BBC use the ECM as their graphics , generally outdated too!! METO use their own and a consensus of others I reckon - although that can’t involve the Arôme and Arpège on this occasion

[Nick123]

 Ali1977 if the ECM and BBC are wrong then that's really bad, chris fawkes made no mention that the ppn might be a bit further north. 

[Turnedoutniceagain]

 danm No according to my Ventus weather station readout - that I'm currently staring at 

Also, my dewpoint has halved in the last hour 

[danm]

11 minutes ago, Turnedoutniceagain said:

No according to my Ventus weather station readout - that I'm currently staring at 

Also, my dewpoint has halved in the last hour 

Fair enough, I wouldn't discount the reading from official weather stations though. Your 8c dew point earlier does sound too high. 

Here is the current picture, temperatures:

 

Dew points:

 

Dew points haven't really changed too much from late morning. But it will get colder for some as the day goes on. 

[Dennis]

EC6z

[AdrianHull]

 stewfox Well with dew points of 3 degrees and a surface temp of 6 degrees in Napton and pressure dropping as we speak.

Your a long way off from acquiring my house. 

[Big Kev]

It looks more north to me. The radar is showing light snow heading into the borders of Scotland. 

[Mcconnor8]

Harmonie 11z steadfast on the heavy precipitation tomorrow morning that the UKV/UKMO have no interest in at all.

Edited November 18 by Mcconnor8

[*Stormforce~beka*]

 throwoff Don't do it to yourself. Don;t even think it.

 Daniel_c150311 no

[Gray-Wolf]

Precip type radar already showing traces of snow as it pushes in toward Todmorden, W. Yorks

I'm in Mytholmroyd so am next up if we are seeing 'snizzle' (or similar?) as the front approaches?....I'll keep You posted!

A few hours before the front arrives but if any early stuff is already falling as Snow that has to be a positive eh?

[Met4Cast]

The front appears to be well ahead of schedule, most modelling doesn’t have it in this position until about 6PM. 

I wonder what impact this will have on the snow totals giving the colder air is still to the north. 

Little point worrying what the models are saying when reality isn’t matching up. 

Edited November 18 by Met4Cast