Will it? Won't it? Nowcasting snow risk Monday and Tuesday

[MJB]

Decent covering in Banbury this morning

 

06:00 dark and grey 

07:00 winter wonderland 

[Frosty_wsm]

Turning to snow here at sea level in north somerset just a few miles from the coast. 

[Hodgheg]

 Aleman Its important to remember that the precip type is based on model data and not direct observations from the radar itself. The Met Office does have dual polarization radar which can differentiate between Rain and Snow however I don't think that data is widely available yet.

[bobbyCov]

 badgerhud not really disruptive like you say quite slushy but traffic was bad around the region when it was going for it this morning, is say it warranted a yellow warning,  still snowing in Coventry but temps are around 1.5 now 

[BlueHedgehog074]

Pretty incredible. The snow this morning is delivering more than what some of the Winters (such as the previous one and the 2019/2020 ones) have provided.

Quite thick flakes falling now

[minus10]

Wintery stuff turning back to rain  just to the west of me looking at the radar...temp 1.8 deg here...is there slightly warmer air above still to the east ?

[weathernuts]

30 m a.s.l South Midlands. Wasn't expecting this given the forecasts( national and regional) and the warning zone

[Paul]

47 minutes ago, Aleman said:

I used to find radar was spot on for years for snow at my location in the Vale of York but something changed.  From winter 22/23 onwards, indicated sleet was almost always snow  (never had much depth just lots of dustings) and rain was sometimes snow as well, so radar now seems to persistently underrepresent wintery weather. I'm wondering what changed and why they don't just change it back. I had thought it was maybe just my area but numerous reports here seem to suggest it is the same elsewhere.

The green isn't 'sleet'  specifically - it's sleet to wet snow. I think on the free radar it's labelled as rain / snow - which is maybe not so helpful so we'll change that. But on the Extra radar the labelling is sleet/wet snow:

[Andrew_WsM]

Some quite big flakes starting to fall here now, but still a mix of rain, sleet and snow.

[Spurry]

Had approx 3-4cms of lying snow here overnight , Roads and paths are clear though , started to slowly thaw but I expect it to freeze over later

[sunnijim]

 weathernuts Potentially a slower clearance SE of the precipitation allowing the Cold to dig in and turn things whiter further South?

[A Face like Thunder]

Road and school closures in NW and NE England and N Wales, so the yellow weather warning seemed justified. Weather warnings just issued for tomorrow for ice although I'm surprised it does not include the NW.    

[Paul]

 Beanz Actually had your area under hail (which includes graupel) at 7am

Precip type modelling / detection on radar isn't an exact science as there are so many variables, so it's never 100% accurate everywhere. What i can say with ours, is that it's doing a lot under the hood in terms of getting it right, including feeding back precip rates for improved hail detection and to change the state when evaporative cooling is coming into play. It's also looking at the exact height of every individual 500m pixel and uses a wide range of parameters to figure out what's most likely to be falling. So, what can be done, is being done!

[HarvSlugger]

Bristol and London got snow before I did in Wales 184 m AMSL

I know this cold spell isn't over but I doubt I'll get any snow anyway but

I chased this cold spell for 2 weeks on the forum 7 hours a day to get disappointed.once again

Time and time again just get no snow here, beast from the east didn't get a flake! If the beast from the east can't give me a flake Idk what will

Edited November 19, 2024 by HarvSlugger

[swebby]

 A Face like Thunder give it an hour, The main warning for midlands and wales has dropped off the site so i suspect they are all being updated as ice will become an issue for many parts over the next 24hrs.

[minus10]

 Paul so are the radar images of different types of precipitation just a model calculation of what it thinks it will be under different circumstances eg.. precip rate..temp change..dew point, humidity etc or does actual data observation recordings get fed into the process as well...i was always under the impression that it was observation based...probably wrongly...

[HarvSlugger]

Just my luck...

Not even cold enough for snow still! And all the precipitation coming my way is completely fizzling out...

Typical Pembrokeshire 

 

[swebby]

 bluearmy Mid Wales and bits of the west midlands looks to have been the area they were the most off in regards to the advanced warnings and actual impacts.  

[SiGh]

Been chucking it down here for last couple of hours. Roads v dangerous as slushy snow; grass, trees, shrubs, etc covered in snow, poss a couple of inches, more slushy on footpaths, patio.

A bit of local cooling going on, as opposed to the global 'issue'.

Becoming more difficult and rare to see settling snow in the South of England, 'they say' - oops. Somebody forgot to tell the weather

[February1978]

Snowing now in Tadley, N Hampshire, 1.7C. Radar suggests it will get heavier in next hour or so.

(Note - we are south of the M4......!)

Edited November 19, 2024 by February1978
m4 added

[Ciderwithrosie]

Snow on higher ground in Somerset , but temp in lower land Somerset 4 c , 6 C drop from this morning. Looking brighter now though so not sure what will happen , we have been told via meto that wed/Thursday might be a small chance of snow falling before temps warming up again.

[steveinsussex]

Rainnnnnnnnnn

[Beanz]

 Paul that’s very interesting, thanks Paul.  Easy to take all of the work that’s go into the back-end of things for granted! 

[Aiden2020]

Any charts to show showers tonight ? Gfs doesn’t look too inspiring haha 

[HarvSlugger]

Ukmo HD 6z brings precipitation so far north on Thursday