Will it? Won't it? Nowcasting snow risk Monday and Tuesday

[Jackski4]

 Met4Cast is it predicted to slowdown?

[Paul]

 Met4Cast It's pretty much at the furthest reaches north and east that the MOGREPS UK expected it to be this morning - this is the rain risk at 1500. (Please note rain risk, these maps are pre-production and don't include precip falling purely as snow at this point)

The UKV 12z has caught up a bit from this morning's runs but still a step to far southwest. 

[Nick123]

I wonder after all this if the central belt is gonna get in on in the action judging by the northern arm of that front

[SqueakheartLW]

 Met4Cast

The precipitation is mostly south and west of the current areas with sub zero dewpoints. I'd expect as is moves into the darker blue areas for snow to start showing up.

Looking good east of the pennines at present based on the dewpoints

[Beanz]

UKMO have caught up with their forecast, rain arriving bang on time now! 

Edited November 18 by Beanz

[Dennis]

Meteociel - Pression atmosphérique observée en temps réel en Royaume-Uni

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

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Pression atmosphÃrique en temps réel des stations de France et des pays limitrophes.

follow the track here 

[Midlands Ice Age]

 Turnedoutniceagain

My temp says 5.1C (falling from max 5.8C earlier), and my DP registers -3.5C!!

I don't think either are correct as my Relative  Humidity is 52% and falling. 

The actual DP is probably about 0C right now for the central midlands area, but if the R H continues to fall the DP will drop as well without any change in surface temp.

It'll start as rain, but I expect it to turn to snow later this evening.

MIA

[Penrith Snow]

I think the MetO have this right and the snow will extend to the Scottish Border, if this proves correct then I know who I will be following for short range forecasts in the future.

[Mcconnor8]

 Paul UKV 12z still has the cold front in the same location as the 9z though, across the Midlands during the night

Edited November 18 by Mcconnor8

[Penrith Snow]

 Nick123 Agreed, with just a few hours to go the models can't agree on the northern extent of the snow.

Here in Cumbria it makes the difference between a dry night or a 10cms snowfall!

[Geordiesnow]

 Nick123

Virtually no chance, you can see from the cloud images the energy is in an ESE'ly direction and as the low slowly heads in a similar direction, it will take it's precip and eventually the high cloud with it.

It does look more closer to what the UKV have predicted mind but early days yet.

[danm]

5 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

my DP registers -3.5C!!

That cannot be correct surely. 

[sheikhy]

 Mcconnor8 also look at the temps for central/north midlands at or below freezing!!!!

[Colin_P]

I've just looked at Netweather's radar, and it appears to be snowing thereabouts around Buxton.

Can anyone confirm?

 

Edited November 18 by Colin_P
speeeling

[SqueakheartLW]

 danm

Have you noticed that place on the southern pennines that has a DP of 8C amongst the negative values just around it  

[MP-R]

 SilverWolf Hmmm fair enough. Maybe 09th Feb 2007 which alternated between snow and rain here but I would’ve thought would’ve been all snow for you.

[nick sussex]

The ICON 12 hrs seems to have developed more precip tomorrow across the Midlands compared to the 06hrs run.

[Mcconnor8]

 nick sussex Yes looks like it is slowly picking up on the shortwave splitting more each run, the UKV that still refuses though

[sheikhy]

 Mcconnor8 latest harmonie even more generous for the midlands area!!

[snowstorm27x]

 Penrith Snow looks further SE to me and temps dropping rapidly as is the dew points in the Midlands currently. Could be much more widespread than predicted.

[nick sussex]

 Mcconnor8

Still waiting for the UK only view to update but just going on the global at 10.00 am tomorrow there looks to be  some heavier precip compared to the 06hrs to the same time.

[Mcconnor8]

 sheikhy Who would have guessed you would be pinning your hopes on each hourly run of the Harmonie Model 

[CoventryWeather]

Centre pressure starting to elongate now, 1004 and slowly dropping.

Interesting few hours ahead, just started to rain lightly here.

Edited November 18 by CoventryWeather

[Laurence Hill]

Mcconnor8, can you show this Harmonie that exciting everyone please?

 Mcconnor8 just found out how to reply!  Could you show the Harmonie in question please?

[Mcconnor8]

 Laurence Hill

This is the Harmonie total for falling snow, not settling snow, not including what the model considers as sleet, but you would imagine it may be overdoing it.

The Arpege 12z isnt backing down at all and shows plenty of Snow for the Midlands across the night and tomorrow morning 

Edited November 18 by Mcconnor8