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December 2024 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests -- start of 2024-25 contest year -- all welcome


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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
Posted (edited)

 

EWP scoring for Dec 2024 _ 89.3 mm

 

Notes: consecutive entries same value drop 0.08, late penalty is 0.30 per day, and wrong sign error (applies to forecasts > 103.6, 1991-2020 average) is 0.06 with graded steps 0.01 to 0.05 for closest to 103.6. Ranks are for points, error rank is tied with first entry and may be a little better than points rank, but will be equal for (a) first in at values and (b) not boosted in points rank by another entry's late penalty. 

 

_ EWP __ Forecaster _______________________ Rank ___ Score ____ notes (late pen, scoring levels)

 89.4 ___ Mean of all data ___________________ 1 ____10.00

 90.0 _ freeze (41) ___________________________ 1 ____10.00

 88.0 _ Weather26 (13) ______________________ 2 _____ 9.85

 88.0 _ Cymro (37a) __________________________3 _____ 9.77 ___ lev 2, 2nd ent

 91.0 _ Metwatch (50) ________________________4 ____ 9.55

 92.0 _ Polar Gael ( 3 ) _______________________ 5 ____ 9.40

 92.0 _ Mr Maunder (42) _____________________6 ____ 9.32

 86.0 _ Stationary Front (39) _________________ 7 ____ 9.10

 85.0 _ Consensus ____________________________ 8 ____ 8.95

 85.0 _ Methuselah ( 8 ) _____________________ 8 ____ 8.95

 85.0 _ virtualsphere (12) ____________________9 ____ 8.87 

 85.0 _ Mulzy (47) ___________________________10 ____ 8.79

 85.0 _ davehsug (54) _______________________11 ____ 8.71

 85.0 _ WYorksWeather (57a) _______________12 ____ 8.63 

 84.0 _ ciderwithrosie (17) __________________13 ____ 8.16

 84.0 _ Terminal Moraine (27) ______________ 14 ____ 8.08

 84.0 _ Norrance (44) _______________________ 15 ____ 8.00

 95.0 _ Frigid (55) ____________________________16 ____ 7.68 

 83.3 _ LetItSnow (33) _______________________17 ____ 7.52

 81.0 _ February1978 (57) ___________________18 ____ 7.36 

 97.4 ___ Mean 1981-2010 ___________________ 19.9___ 7.06 

 98.0 _ SteveB (L1-9) ________________________ 20 ____ 6.90 ____ lev 19 (-0.30 late)

 80.0 _ Leo97t (35) __________________________ 19 ____ 7.04 ___ lev 20

 80.0 _ hailcore = snowspout (L1-4) _________22 ____ 6.66 ___ lev 20, 2nd consec, late 1d

 99.0 _ Shillitocet ( 9 ) _______________________ 21 ____ 6.72 ____ lev 22

 99.0 _ jonboy (22) __________________________ 23 ____ 6.64 ____ lev 22 2nd ent

100.0 _ weatherforducks (28.) ______________ 24 ____ 6.40

100.0 _ Summer8906 (49) __________________ 25 ____ 6.32

100.0 _ DR(S)NO (62) _______________________ 26 ____ 6.24

101.0 _ snowray (18.) _______________________ 27 ____ 5.92

102.0 _ Summer18 ( 2 ) _____________________ 28 ____ 5.76

 76.0 _ Reef (24) ____________________________ 29 ____ 5.60 

103.0 _ summer blizzard (60) _______________30 ____ 5.44

103.6 ___ Mean 1991-2020 __________________30.3___ 5.39

 74.0 _ Cloud2 (52) __________________________ 31 ____ 5.28 

106.3 ___ mean 1994-2023 __________________31.5 ___ 5.20 

 70.0 _ daniel* (58.) __________________________32 ____ 5.12

 69.0 _ dancerwithwings ( 4 ) ________________ 33 ____ 4.96

 69.0 _ Ricardo23 (20) _______________________ 34 ____ 4.88 

111.0 _ HarvSlugger (35) ____________________ 35_____ 4.65 ___(-0.01 sign)

112.6 _ Midlands Ice Age (31) _______________ 36 ____ 4.46 ___ (-0.02 sign)

 65.0 _ The PIT (21) __________________________ 37 ____ 4.32

115.0 _ Bobd29 ( 7 ) _________________________ 38 ____ 4.12___ lev 38 (-0.04 sign)

115.0 _ JeffC (15) ____________________________ 39 ____ 4.04 ___ lev 38 2nd ent (-0.04 sign)

 62.7 _ Thundery Wintry Showers (38.) ______40 ____ 3.84 

 62.0 _ rwtwm (L-1) __________________________42 ____ 3.38 ____ lev 41 (late 1d)

118.0 _ chilly milly (11) _______________________41____ 3.47 ____ lev 42 -0.05 sign

119.0 _ Feb1991blizzard (43) ________________ 43____ 3.30 ___ -0.06 sign (also 120+ below)

120.0 _ Don (56) _____________________________ 44 ____ 3.14

120.0 _ J10 (59) ______________________________ 45 ____ 3.06

 55.0 _ stewfox (45) __________________________46 ____ 2.88 

 54.0 _ catbrainz ( 5 ) ________________________ 47 ____ 2.72 

125.0 _ SaintCoolio (34) ______________________48 ____ 2.50 

126.5 _ Roger J Smith (16) ____________________49 ____ 2.34 ____ lev 49

 52.0 _ ribster (L1-11) ________________________ 51 ____ 1.94 ____ lev 50 (-0.30 late)

127.0 _ Emmett Garland (40) ________________ 50 ____ 2.02 ____ lev 51 

 50.0 _ Summerlover2006 (23) _______________ 52 ____ 1.92 

130.0 _ Blue_Skies_do_I_see (26) _____________53 ____ 1.70  

 47.0 _ seaside 60 (48.) _______________________54 ____ 1.60

 44.0 _ syed2878 (29) _________________________55 ____ 1.44

 43.0 _ john88b (L1-2) ________________________ 56 ____ 0.98 ____ lev 56, late -0.30

 42.0 _ Beasterly (L1-7) _______________________ 57 ____ 0.82 ____ lev 57, late -0.30

 42.0 _ IcyKev (L1-10) _________________________ 59 ____ 0.74 ____ lev 57, late -0.30, 2nd consec

 40.0 _ Earthshine ( 1 ) ________________________ 58 ____ 0.80 ____ lev 59

 40.0 _ McConnor8 (L1-5) _____________________ 61 ____ 0.42 ____ lev 59 2nd ent (late -0.30)

 39.0 _ Godber 1 (61) __________________________60 ____ 0.48 ____ lev 61

 35.0 _ Pulpstar (10) ___________________________ 62 ____ 0.32

 33.0 _ Neil N (L1-3) ____________________________63 ____ 0.06 ___ lev 63, raw score -0.14, low score is

155.0 _  I Remember Atlantic252 (14) _________ 64 ____ 0.00 ___ always largest error and 2nd lowest

_________________________________________________________________ is always set no lower than 0.06

 

=====================

 

Combined CET and EWP scoring (6.8 C, 89.3 mm)

 

Note: combined ranks add 1 for CET late day(s), ranks already reflect EWP late penalty.

 

CET \

Rank _ CET _ EWP _FORECASTER __________________ EWP Rank __ best combined ranks

_01 __ 6.7 __126.5_ Roger J Smith (16) _______________49 ____ 50 ____t-13th best combined

_02 __ 6.7 __ -- -- __ Summer Sun (30) _______________ ---

_03 __ 6.6 __ 76.0 _ Reef (24) ________________________ 29 ____ 32 ____ 7th best combined

_04 __ 7.0 __130.0_ Blue_Skies_do_I_see (26) ________53 ____ 57 

_05 __ 6.6 __ 42.0 _ Beasterly (L1-7) _________________ 57 ____ 62+1 =63

_06 __ 7.2 __ 98.0 _ SteveB (L1-9) ____________________ 20 ____ 26+1 =27___3rd best combined

_07 __ 6.5 __119.0_ Feb1991blizzard (43) ____________43 ____ 50 ___t-13th best combined

_08 __ 6.4 _ 115.0 _ Bobd29 ( 7 ) _____________________38 ____ 44 ___t-10th best combined

_09 __ 6.4 __ 84.0 _ ciderwithrosie (17) ______________ 13 ____ 22 ___ 2nd best combined

_10 __ 6.4 __ 44.0 _ syed2878 (29) ___________________ 55 ____ 65

_11 __ 6.4 _ 120.0 _ J10 (59) __________________________45 ____ 56 ___t-20th best combined

_12 __ 6.3 __ 54.0 _ catbrainz ( 5 ) ___________________ 47 ____ 59

_13 __ 6.3 __111.0_ HarvSlugger (36) ________________ 35 ____ 48 ___ 12th best combined

_14 __ 6.2 __ -- -- __ Froze were the Days (46) _______ ---

_15 __ 6.1 __ 99.0 _ jonboy (22) ______________________23 ____ 38 ____ 8th best combined

_16 __ 6.1 __ -- -- __ Mark Bayley (25) _______________ ---

_17 __ 6.0 __ 88.0 _ Weather26 (13) __________________ 2 ____ 19 ____ best combined

_18 __ 7.6 __155.0_ I Remember Atlantic252 (14) ___ 64 ____ 82

_19 __ 6.0 __100.0_ weatherforducks (28.) __________ 24 ____ 43 ____ 9th best combined    

_20 __ 5.9 __ -- -- __ Typhoon John ( 6 ) ______________ ---

_21 __ 5.9 __ 85.0 _ Methuselah ( 8 ) _________________ 8 ____ 29 ____ 4th best combined

_22 __ 5.8 __ -- -- __ Derecho (31) ____________________---

_23 __ 5.8 _ 127.0 _ Emmett Garland (40) ___________ 50 ____ 73

_24 __ 5.8 __ 92.0 _ Mr Maunder (42) ________________ 6 ____ 30 ____ 5th best combined

_25 __ 5.7 __ 65.0 _ The PIT (21) _____________________ 37 ____ 62

_26 __ 5.7 __ 62.7 _ Thundery Wintry Showers (38.) _ 40 ____ 66 

_27 __ 5.7 __ 91.0 _ Metwatch (50) ___________________ 4 ____ 31____ 6th best combined

_28 __ 5.6 __ 69.0 _ dancerwithwings ( 4 ) ___________ 33 ____ 61

_29 __ 5.6 __ 55.0 _ stewfox (45) _____________________46 ____ 75

_30 __ 5.6 __103.0_ summer blizzard (60) ___________ 30 ____ 60

_31 __ 5.5 __118.0_ chilly milly (11) __________________ 41 ____ 72

_32 __ 5.5 __ 85.0 _ WYorksWeather (19, 57a) _______ 12 ____ 44 ____ t-10th best combined

_33 __ 8.1 _ 125.0 _ SaintCoolio (34) _________________48 ____ 81

_34 __ 5.5 __100.0_ Summer8906 (49) ______________ 25 ____ 59 

_35 __ 5.5 __ -- -- __ Andrew R (L1-6) _________________---

_(36) _5.4 __ 85.0 _____ Consensus ___________________ 8 ____(44) ____ (t10)

_36 __ 5.4 __ 50.0 _ Summerlover2006 (23) _________52 ____ 88

_37 __ 5.4 __120.0_ Don (56) ________________________44 ____ 81

_38 __ 5.3 __ 84.0 _ Terminal Moraine (27) __________14 ____ 52 ____ t-16th best combined

_39 __ 5.3 __ 83.3 _ LetItSnow (33) ___________________17 ____ 56 ____ t-20th best combined

_40 __ 5.3 __ 85.0 _ Mulzy (47) _______________________ 10 ____ 50 ____t-13th best combined

_41 __ 5.3 __ 80.0 _ snowspout ++ (L1-4) ____________ 22 ____ 63+1=64

_42 __ 5.2 __101.0_ snowray (18.) ___________________ 27 ____ 69

_43 __ 5.2 __ -- -- __ damianslaw (37) ________________ ---

_44 __ 5.2 __ 95.0 _ Frigid (55) ______________________ 16 ____ 60

_45 __ 5.1 __112.6_ Midlands Ice Age (32) __________ 36 ____ 81

_46 __ 5.1 __ 86.0_ Stationary Front (39) ____________ 7 ____ 53 ____ t-18th best combined

_47 __ 5.1 __ 47.0 _ seaside 60 (48.) _________________54 ___101

(48) __106.3___ mean 1994-2023 ___________________31.5 ___79.5

_48 __ 5.0 __ 80.0 _ Leo97t (35) _____________________19 ____ 67

_49 __ 5.0 __ 81.0 _ February1978 (57) _____________ 18 ____ 67

_50 __ 5.0 __100.0_ DR(S)NO (62) ___________________26 ____ 76

(51) __ 4.9 __103.6___ Mean 1991-2020 ____________30.3___ 81.3

_51 __ 4.9 _ 115.0 _ JeffC (15) _______________________39 ____ 90

_52 __ 4.8 __ 90.0 _ freeze (41) ______________________ 1 ____ 53 ____ t-18th best combined

_53 __ 4.8 __ 69.0 _ Ricardo23 (20) _________________ 34 ____ 87

_54 __ 4.8 __ -- -- __ Anthony Burden (L2-1) _________ ---

_55 __ 4.7 __ 84.0 _ Norrance (44) __________________ 15 ____ 70

_56 __ 4.7 __ 85.0 _ davehsug (54) __________________ 11 ____ 67

_57 __ 4.6 __ 42.0 _ icykev (L1-10) __________________ 59 ___ 116+1=117

(58) __ 4.5 __ 97.4 ___ Mean 1981-2010 ____________(20) ___ (78) 

_58 __ 4.5 __ 74.0 _ Cloud2 (52) _____________________31 ____ 89

_59 __ 4.4 __102.0_ Summer18 ( 2 ) ________________ 28 ____ 87

(60) __ 4.3  _ 89.4 ___ Mean all data ________________ 1 ____ 61

_60 __ 4.3 __ 43.0 _ john88b (L1-2) _________________ 56 ____116+1=117

_61 __ 4.2 __ -- -- __ Kentish Man (51) _______________---

_62 __ 4.2 __ -- -- __ Weather Observer (53) _________---

_63 __ 4.1 __ 85.0 _ virtualsphere (12) ______________ 9 ____ 72

_64 __ 4.1 __ 70.0 _ daniel * (58.) ___________________32 ____ 96

_65 __ 4.1 __ 33.0 _ Neil N (L1-3) ___________________ 63 ___ 128+1=129

_66 __ 4.0 __ 92.0 _ Polar Gael ( 3 ) _________________ 5 ____ 71

_67 __ 4.0 __ 40.0 _ McConnor8 (L1-5) ______________61 ____128+1=129

_68 __ 3.9 __ 39.0 _ Godber 1 (61) __________________ 60 ____ 99

_69 __ 3.8 __ 88.0 _ Cymro (L1-8, 37) ________________3 ____ 72+1=73

_70 __ 3.6 __ 62.0 _ rwtwm (L-1) ____________________42 ____112+1=113

_71 __ 3.3 __ 99.0 _ Shillitocet ( 9 ) __________________21 ____ 92

_72 __ 3.2 __ 52.0 _ ribster (L1-11) __________________51 ____123

_73 __ 0.0 __ 40.0 _ Earthshine ( 1 ) _________________58 ____131

_74 __-1.0 __35.0 _ Pulpstar (10) ____________________62 ____136

=========================

 

Edited by Roger J Smith
  • Thanks 1
Posted

Excel -> Dec 2024 CET.xlsx

PDF Summary -> Dec 2024 Summary.pdf
PDF Overall Summary -> Dec 2024 Overall Summary.pdf

So for December 2024, no one got 6.8c spot on, but 2 were within 0.1c.
Roger J Smith and Summer Sun

With a further three within 0.2c reef, BlueSkies_do_I_see and Beasterly

Apart from late entry penalty points, the monthly rankings form the overall rankings. As previously mentioned, the baseline for this year's competion has been changed to 1991-2020.

image.thumb.png.a52119524283c03795746033c1b8ed67.pngimage.thumb.png.2a99f473e576cee15db2cddbaf13f1d9.png

 

  • Thanks 3
Posted
  • Location: Coventry, 95m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow Nov - Feb. Thunderstorms, 20-29°C and sun any time!
  • Location: Coventry, 95m asl
Posted (edited)

Quite glad with that EWP jump for my guess on the last day of the month (not so glad for the floods it brought) so that puts me 3rd closest entry to the 89.2mm.

image.png.eb1e8bbd1849c296de98081064f8ff17.png

Rare I get that close with my EWP guess, more difficult to guess it right compared to the CET!

Edited by Metwatch
Posted
  • Location: Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Warm-by-day sunny thundery summers , short cold snowy winters.
  • Location: Hampshire
Posted (edited)

The month ended up surprisingly mild, as it really didn't seem that mild to me. It certainly "felt" significantly less mild than many recent Decembers, specifically 2023, 2021, 2019, 2018, 2016, 2015, 2013 and 2011. 

I find it hard to believe it was milder than the Atlantic-low-barrage-fests that were 2021, 2019, 2013 or 2011 or the drizzly warm-sector-fest that was 2016 - it certainly felt considerably colder than all of these so I'm wondering whether it was significantly colder in the south (due to the frequent occurrence of higher pressure to the south).

It seemed a little above average, but with a lot of days that were about average or marginally below. The first two weeks "seemed" to be on the low side of average (IIRC we had a chilly NW-ly, then Darragh, then an anticyclonic NE-ly), and the last 10 days also around average aside from Christmas Eve and New Year's Eve (a coldish outbreak on the 22nd/23rd, then a warm sector on the 24th before the anticyclone produced what felt like seasonable, average conditions from the 25th to the 30th). Only the third week seemed to produce any lasting mild weather.

 

 

Edited by Summer8906
  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
Posted

 Summer8906 It wasn't really a surprise, as it had pretty much no below average conditions at all. A lot of places (here included) didn't even have an air frost all month. It was another one of those months which seem to frequently pop up these days where there is no outright exceptional warmth / above average weather, but rather consistently a couple of degrees above average with a total absence of anything cool/cold. Spring 2024 being the warmest on record went under the radar for this reason too.

  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Warm-by-day sunny thundery summers , short cold snowy winters.
  • Location: Hampshire
Posted

 reef I know what you mean, hard to believe "Spring" 2024 was the warmest on record as I would rate it the "worst" spring, subjectively, since 1983 (due to lack of sun and near-constant unsettled weather) and generally, "bad" springs are usually on the cool side. Just recently, I'd have put the springs of 2022 and 2020 as much warmer, for example.

We did have some episodes which I took to be slightly colder than average here, though. For instance the back end of Darragh and the week following seemed chilly to me, I'd have guessed that was a shade below. Also that cold outbreak on the 22nd and 23rd, and one or two days during Christmas week (around the 28th/29th in particular) also seemed slightly cold.

  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: Islington, C. London.
  • Location: Islington, C. London.
Posted

 Summer8906 December 2024 at least down here was notable for its minima. There were just no cold and frosty episodes. It doesn't really matter that we had a spell of 6-7C maxima because the temperature didn't even fall below zero here. I believe maxima here were under a degree above average but minima were close to 2-2.5C above average. And that's 1991-2020 too! The unremarkable set ups just caused so much cloud that the nights were so cold. No cold nights will scupper any chances of even being near normal.

Posted
  • Location: Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Warm-by-day sunny thundery summers , short cold snowy winters.
  • Location: Hampshire
Posted (edited)

 LetItSnow  Arguably that's another example of why in some ways the stats often give a somewhat misleading impression of mild (see the other thread) if you consider daytime maxima the most important thing. Thus Dec 2024 comes out mild when it "seemed" not far from average by day temps, while July 2023 and 2024 (both of which I missed) came out average even though the postings on here suggest daytimes were unseasonably cool.

Presumably some of the other examples that seemed milder than 2024 but were not (i.e. 2021, 2019, 2016, 2013, 2011) had short frosty episodes (some of which I remember) and long spells of very mild weather but the short frosty episodes were enough to make the CET lower. That said, I do seem to remember 2021 being completely devoid of frost, and having more in the way of very mild days - I am amazed Dec 2021 didn't come out higher than 2024.

Edited by Summer8906
Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District. 290 mts a.s.l.
  • Weather Preferences: Anything extreme
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District. 290 mts a.s.l.
Posted

 Roger J Smith  Thanks, Roger. Yes I posted in the wrong thread.

Posted
  • Location: SE Wales.
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy winters, mild/warm summers and varied shoulder seasons
  • Location: SE Wales.
Posted

 Summer8906 Yes I get baffled every time there's talk of Spring 2024 being the "warmest on record". It seemed to be due to very warm nights from the cloudy SWles, if you asked most people what the warmest spring on record was I think most would say something like 2011 or 2020 and its likely both springs had higher average max temps . BTW spring 2024 if we look at stats was pure bad luck a million things came together for spring 2024 to be very poor. 

image.thumb.png.610506ff45b5375ea60a43528f1d60d2.png

What went wrong was that we had a west based NAO- which by itself is already very bad but we also had a Scandi high with lots of blocking to our E/NE which made the already bad west based NAO- even worse. West based NAO- means we got lows shoved into western Europe from the Azores but then the blocking to the E/NE meant the lows had nowhere to go so they stalled directly over us. Without that Scandi high I think it would have looked more like spring 2008. Still rather naff but sunnier and drier given that lows would pass by rather than just sitting over Biscay/British Isles shoving in SWles. 

image.thumb.png.143c046abd459c0194e4f6169043bd94.png

  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
Posted

EWP went into tables at 89.3 mm. Scoring is almost entirely same as for tracker (89.2) and scoring tables will be edited as needed. 

After 2023 in 7 rank, 2024 was 9 (1152.4 mm). 

Posted
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire
Posted

 Summer8906 Some may find it hard to believe that December 2024 came out with a higher CET than some recent ones - in the ones that you quote, I think that Dec 2021 felt average apart from a mild few days in mid-month and a very mild closing few days of the month.  I recall that Dec 2016 had a few days of cold, frosty, anticyclonic weather in the final week (which Dec 2024 did not really have at any point), and I think that Dec 2011 possibly had rather cold polar maritime zonality for the first two thirds of it (which Dec 2024 did not) with only the final ten days of that month really being mild.  So the above possibly explains why Decembers 2011, 2016, and 2021 were not as mild overall for the CET as Dec 2024 was.  That said, with the others, I think that Decembers 2013 and 2019 did feel as mild as 2024, even though the figures say they were not.

  • Like 1

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