December 2024 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests -- start of 2024-25 contest year -- all welcome

[Roger J Smith]

6.7 C and 126.5 mm

[Ciderwithrosie]

Thank you for organising these contests, Roger J Smith they are good fun and it's very interesting to look at all the statistical material. 

Here is my estimate- 6.4C 84mm.Thank you.

[snowray]

5.2c and 101mm please.

[WYorksWeather]

5.5C and 125mm please. Might make a last minute change depending on the model output over the next couple of days.

[Don]

 WYorksWeather Yes, I'm going to wait until Saturday evening.  Still don't really know what I will go for mind!

[damianslaw]

Will wait until Saturday, a mild start almost a certainty. Can see cold potential mid month onwards if things play ball, but there is alot signalling a generally mild month overall with some colder shots at times. A Dec 00 would be good. 

[Ricardo23]

Thanks Roger,for the outstanding contributions, 

hmm Weak/Neutral La Nina I will go 4.8c  and 69mm 

[The PIT]

Going for 5.7C and 65mm of rain.

[jonboy]

6.1 and 99mm please 

[Summerlover2006]

5.4: a very mixed month temperature wise an average first week to a little above average first week then a very mild week before quite a cold week running up to Christmas which will bring the coldest temperature of 2024 before switching back to mild for Christmas because we will never get a cold Christmas which will be the theme until the end of the year. 
 

For rainfall I’m guessing extremely dry following the dry theme we have been on practically since June something like 50mm.

[reef]

6.6C and 76mm

Back to the normal dross after 6 months close to average temperature-wise.

[Mark Bayley]

6.1c please

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

7.0c and 130mm please

[Terminal Moraine]

I'll punt for 5.3c and 84 mm of rain

[weatherforducks]

6.0c and 100mm please.

[syed2878]

For December temp wise i'm going for 6.4C and rain fall 44MM i have a fieling despite what the moddles are showing it's going to be a mild and dry month. Thanks

 

[Summer Sun]

6.7c for me please

[Derecho]

December's latest projections according to the EC 00z. Overall a bit of a variable first half to December starting with an exceptionally mild first day. Temperatures quickly dive after that though it quickly turns milder again later next week.

From there the EC is one of the coldest members from the 8th to the 11th with a lot of scatter. We end up on 5.7C by the 14th which isn't far above average for mid December.

GFS 06z and UKMO 00z however both show winds of a northerly component around that time so I think the above prediction is realistic at this point. The risk is if we never really get a northerly but instead very mild air looping around the top of the high and coming in from the NW. That would be a tough pattern to break though not seeing it at this point.

I think I'll go for 5.8C

[Midlands Ice Age]

5.1C and 112.6mms please....

 

[LetItSnow]

I feel like the changeable nature to the weather we've had for the past few months will stick. I do think there'll be a fair bit of mild weather. but perhaps the second half could have some surprises. Sensing it could be on the dry side too with high pressure showing signs of attempting to ridge in at times.

5.3C and 83.3mm

Edited November 30, 2024 by LetItSnow

[Paul]

 Ciderwithrosie Definitely echo this - thanks to both @Roger J Smith & @J10 for your efforts with this competition - it's fantastic to see it still going strong after all these years. 

[Saint coolio]

8.1c 125mm

[Leo97t]

5.0c and 80mm

[HarvSlugger]

6.3c and 111mm

[damianslaw]

A variable month temp wise, on a par with November in this respect but without the sustained very mild weather earlier on this month.

A finish in the 5s, I'll go low 5s at 5.2. It could end up a fair bit milder if we don't see the high pressure projected to develop in the atlantic next week ridge north enough, and a general atlantic westerly take hold, but there is also a distinct possibility of a colder value if heights position themselves to bring in a pronounced colder source in the second half.

There is a wide range of options this Dec, not yet am I seeing a particularly strong jet overpowering everything. Fog and frost could be a regular feature, and wintry precipitation at times more so further north inbetween spells of milder wetter /dry weather.

In a word a mixed month with wintry interests but not expecting anything particularly severe. The word 'toppler' could well be the 'in' word this month. 

Edited November 30, 2024 by damianslaw