Possible two named storms later this week.

[The PIT]

Details keep changing so could end up being nothing at all. First one Thursday and the other overnight Friday into Saturday. The Saturday one could last all day as well. Modelling has been on and off for these systems so may end being nothing more than a leaf shifter. If not could bring some damage.

[The PIT]

Well Saturdays is cancelled on the overnight runs Thursdays is still there though at the moment.

[Tim M]

Looks worse on Saturday from the forecasts I can see? For example, GFS (XC Weather) saying 60mph gusts for North Midlands?

[Candice]

GFS 12z now taking Friday night/Sat am much further south.

[The PIT]

Yup this run delays Saturdays and weakens the winds somewhat but still windy later down the E coasts and just inland. However outputs have been switching a lot lately so need to give it another 24 hrs or so.

[HarvSlugger]

 The PIT alot of GFS members still have a severe windstorm, huge difference in the output currently 

[Mapantz]

Nothing particularly unusual on the GFS for down here.

[HarvSlugger]

 Mapantz jma,cma,Kma and AIFS show 80kmh sustained wind speeds! Maybe some of them not the most accurate models but still a chance of something much more severe, we'll see what the latest gfs shows

[Mapantz]

 HarvSlugger

Zero chance of 50mph sustained wind speeds occurring here. That would be unprecedented! 

[Metwatch]

GFS 18z goes a bit mental Friday night but it seems to be the only det run out of most models that go for this solution. Unlikely but wouldn't write it off just yet.

[Mcconnor8]

Would expect the storm on Friday Night / Saturday to become a named one now.

GFS 6z has the strongest winds during the night for Ireland and the South West then throughout the day for the rest of the country.

Nothing exceptional speed wise but over a large area.

[The PIT]

Latest ECM heading away from the idea slightly. 62 mph is fairly exceptional for England and 72 mph for the south west. Don't think they'll be naming until the modelling is more consistent.

[Mcconnor8]

Would expect it to be named based on the latest UKV run

[The PIT]

12oz ramps up a notch and if it comes off could one these rare long period of windy weather which we don't see very often these days. UKMO seems to be line with GFS 12oz so odds are it will be named. Now whether the met office gets around to it and isn't beaten it by either the Irish Met or even the French Met as it heads their way later remains to be seen.

The local forecast doesn't show any real strong winds for us it will be interesting if it back tracks or not.

[Mcconnor8]

 The PIT

ECM 12z take on it, almost certain to get named now, impacts over Friday nght and during the day on Saturday as you go further East, pretty high gusts for inland locations compared to usual as well.

[The PIT]

Met office still edging their bets. After the outcry over Storm Bert they better update the warnings quicker rather than leaving as they are. Just waiting for the ECM high res to come out and see what that thinks. If UKMO, GFS and ECM are all very close it maybe time to slap an amber warning out. None of this inconsistent impact nonsense. A 80 mph gust will bring a tree down when it's ready to fall day or night and if it's on your house it's an impact regardless of the time. There's no harm in downgrading warnings either.

What is poor is generally is the time response to warnings and updating them as when needed. In this modern age there's no excuse for it. The data is there they just need to use it. Forecast 80mph gusts and issue an amber then on the day in question the highest out there is 40mph remove it simple as.

[Frosty hollows]

Met office currently going for gusts of 58mph this far inland on Saturday,  which is fairly rare and up there with some of the biggest storms in the last 10 years or so

[The PIT]

ECM pretty much well onboard all seem pretty close to the paths so unless there own in house model is saying something completely different can't see why it isn't named.

[WYorksWeather]

 The PIT I suppose weighing the advantage of lead time vs. certainty. I would expect a name and amber warnings to be thrown around if modelling still looks the same tomorrow morning.

Certainly the morning 00z runs will be watched with interest.

[Cirrusly Snowy]

Selfishly I've got a flight to catch at BHX on saturday so don't need this

[WYorksWeather]

 Cirrusly Snowy It could be worse, you could have an Irish Sea ferry to catch 

[RabbitEars]

Our Steam Packet ferries are already off! Or "at risk". Our met office hasn't called a wind warning either yet. Loganair are also offering free changes of flights as they are less likely to fly in high winds (the planes are small and our runway is short compared to other airports) 

[Penguin16]

More posts about will it snow in the next few weeks ahead than an impending very impactful storm. 

Edited December 4, 2024 by Penguin16

[Frosty hollows]

 Penguin16 Always the way here

[Wold Topper]

 Penguin16 was thinking the same tbh, thought the potential for the next few days would of gained more traction on here tbh