Winter 24-25 Moans, chat and ramp thread

[ANYWEATHER]

26 minutes ago, Spikey M said:

People are unfortunatly overwhelmingly IMBY in their thinking and often incapable even trying to understand the warning matrix.

How the hell did mankind manage without warnings back in the day. It didn’t stop the population from growing did it. People today are way too soft , this country has become a mamby Bambi nanny state society. What ever happened to common sense. Answer , there isn’t any more in society because if it’s not on a screen it doesn’t exist…..god knows what our ancestors would think of it

[Metwatch]

 SunSean

If I hadn't gone north to see some of the deepest snow I've seen in England to date in Derbyshire last month (as you can tell I haven't travelled to particularly snowy parts of the world or been alive that long ), I'd have rated November down to a 4.

It's always a delight to see snow in one of the most boring months of the year. Since 2010, only 2 Novembers have brought decent snowfall to the Midlands; 2021 and 2024. However back home last month only had a small covering 2 separate mornings which fully melted away by the afternoon so I wouldn't have rated that as high as seeing the much deeper snow further north.

Perhaps I am missing another November between 2010-2021 that brought some snowfall but I can't recall anything of note...

Edited December 4, 2024 by Metwatch

[reef]

 SunSean December is the month that has been sunnier than average here on more occasions than any other month in the last 25 years.

Since 1999 out of 25 Decembers, 19 have seen above average sunshine. Only 2002, 2007, 2015, 2020, 2021 and 2023 had below average sunshine. I suspect the fact three of those have been in the last four years doesn't help with the perception.

The 1991-2020 average is 60 hours here, but the 2001-2023 period is already at 64 hours. So unless the next seven are rubbish, then the 2001-2030 average will be higher by quite a bit.

[cheeky_monkey]

have a freezing rain warning in place here..currently its snowing -12c ..however the temps are forecast to rise to -6c with snow changing to freezing rain ..boo 

[Summer8906]

 reef No figures here but I would certainly add December 2019 to the list: aside from the first few days a vile month with very dull and very wet conditions and oppressive and humid mildness at times. Horrible, horrible, horrible. 2/10 but if we discount the first few days, a big fat zero.

December 2018 was also pretty dull, also 2013 and 2011. 2012 was often sunny until the 13th then switched to extremely dull. It definitely seems that Decembers have become much duller post-2010, which ties in with the general mild theme, because certainly in mid-winter, mild almost always equals dull.

Edited December 4, 2024 by Summer8906

[reef]

 Summer8906 December 2019 had 144% of normal sunshine here (vs 1981-2010). It was quite a sunny month in eastern areas especially:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/anomacts/2019/12/2019_12_Sunshine_Anomaly_1991-2020.gif

2011, 2012 and 2013 had 140%, 144% and 150% of normal here. After this 2014 had 175%.

Edited December 4, 2024 by reef

[Summer8906]

 reef I guess these kind of southwesterly months are much better at your location than here. I'm amazed it was sunnier than average in this location though - I just remember it as (after the first few days) constant dull, dark, dampness! I do remember hating it with a passion at the time and finding it extraordinarily depressing with constant very mild and damp SW-ly winds and frequent prolonged frontal rain, I can only assume that perhaps 5 days of extremely sunny weather at the start cancelled out the later dullness.

2014 was noticeably sunny here, though. But at least by perception, the summers of the 00s seemed much sunnier than the years from 2011 onwards.

Edited December 4, 2024 by Summer8906

[MP-R]

 Azazel Early January or not at all por favor (and not if we’re already in favourable weather patterns). Anything Feb onwards just wrecks spring.

 Summer8906 A lot of Pm air in winter 14/15 which helped!

I always consider that to be the type of Atlantic winter I’d be ok with.

[Summer8906]

 MP-R Indeed, the thing about 14/15 is that you had the Tm interludes, so it was very mild on occasion, but then you'd get proper cold fronts and proper Pm plunges. The winters I especially hate are the ones where there are no proper cold polar interludes between the fronts - such as, above all else, 2019/20.

I would also rate Jan 2015 highly as well as Dec 2014. Feb 2015 then seemed to produce a change: anticyclonic and dull as well as coldish first half, mild and wet second, but by then it was almost spring anyway. Definitely one of the less depressing winters since 2010.

Edited December 4, 2024 by Summer8906

[richie3846]

Spring 2007 and 2010 both had late SSW events, and looking at the climate summary graphics on the met office, they didn't do too badly. I've yet to see a convincing argument for late SSWs being a death knell for springs. 2013 was earlier, 7th January, and March was awful. I honestly think this has become folklore rather than a fact. 

[SunSean]

 richie3846 it's happened 2 Springs in a row now so if we get another late season SSW then I'm writing off Spring once again unfortunately. 

[Summer8906]

 richie3846 Interesting 2007 did because there seemed to be zero impact (no cold weather never mind wet and dull).

2010 was looking to be a "poor" spring on model runs in early April but there was a sudden and unexpected improvement in the forecasts around Easter.

[SiGh]

UK Meto continue to see nowt of interest for cold and snow lovers, right up to end of the year. 

A very 'typical' December for these parts (imby).

[MP-R]

 richie3846 2010 was chilly and 2007 was saved by April. March was meh and May was terrible. 
 

Only have to look at the last 2 years for recent examples. 

[richie3846]

 MP-R 2010 spring was also sunny and dry, so not unduly affected by the event imo. 

[Jonnoramo87]

I usually enjoy watching the mornings get lighter but during the last 2 springs, I just haven’t had that feeling due to the lack of sun and warmth. I’m with @SunSean and praying for my life we don’t get another SSW as if that didn’t ruin the last 2 springs I don’t have a clue what else could have.

[Summer8906]

 MP-R March 2007 was pretty good here, apart from the first 7 days. Was mostly warm and sunny after that. May was bad but I guess that was beyond the impact period for the SSW.

April 2010 was very sunny with clear blue skies most of the time, though as I said it was something of a surprise because the models were suggesting a cool cyclonic outlook early in the month, i.e. typical SSW conditions. May 2010 was quite acceptable too, mostly dry though sunshine rather variable, a lot of northerlies so rarely damp and soggy.

Edited December 4, 2024 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

 SiGh The long-range doesn't look especially wet or especially mild, at least.

Reading between the lines perhaps indicative of a WNW flow (wetter to the north but alternating cold/mild periods rather than generally mild, and sometimes dry in the south).

[baddie]

 Summer8906 I would give December 2019 about a 4/10 here. The was a fine spell early in the month and a few cold/sunny days around the 14th, and a dry, though dull final few days

[richie3846]

 Summer8906 looks like it was fairly decent for most:

I've read the comments about SSWs and when they occur, and I still don't see anything solid to prove that it's bad news if an SSW happens at the end of winter. 2007 SSW happened 24th February, and these graphics suggest that the unpredictable variability of the UK weather is still a thing, even in a late SSW. 

When I get a chance I'll attempt a statistical analysis of the springs of this century with and without late SSWs, and if there's any pattern. I'm hearing rather weak claims evidentially, not much meat on the bone really. 

Edited December 4, 2024 by richie3846

[Summer8906]

 richie3846 Indeed, I see that my area is a sunshine island on that one, in contrast to many months in recent years when it's been an island of dullness!

Parts of the south on 150% +.

Not desperately dry but that was likely because the first 7 days were very wet, I remember a procession of low-latitude depressions every couple of days for the first week. Very little rain after that, one showery NW-ly plunge around the 18th and a low over France briefly around the 30th and that was it.

[MP-R]

11 minutes ago, Summer8906 said:

March 2007 was pretty good here, apart from the first 7 days. Was mostly warm and sunny after that. May was bad but I guess that was beyond the impact period for the SSW.

You mean you actually had a better month than here from a westerly!? How things have changed eh.

[Summer8906]

 MP-R It was  very anticyclonic and I think the mean wind direction was north of west, we tend to do better with that kind of setup.

We used to get that type of March rather a lot (strongly anticyclonic, WNW-ly) and it gave us a run of frequent sunny Marches from 1990 to 2014. Since the last March of that type (2014), i.e. Marches where the fine weather arrived well before the equinox, March just hasn't been the same.

Edited December 4, 2024 by Summer8906

[MP-R]

 richie3846 April certainly was, but March was not great and May didn’t really get going until the 20th. The thing it had going for it was dryness, however.

[Summer8906]

 MP-R Assuming this is 2010, there was a period of dire weather in the 2nd half of March (from about the 14th to the end of the month) when it seemed like spring would never arrive. But the first half of March was sunny and interestingly cold, and April and even May produced perfect spring conditions of anticyclones alternating with "clean" northerlies with the only rainfall basically in the form of showers.

Edited December 4, 2024 by Summer8906