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Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, S Glos, nr Bristol
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, S Glos, nr Bristol
Posted

It's gonna be a long...........................................

mild, wet winter.

  • Like 4
Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

 SiGh

What's the Spanish Met's take on winter 2025, Si? 

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Posted

 Methuselah Tbh the models are struggling over 144 hrs imo.im not sure how weather weeks away can be forecast even with the classic background signals.plus there not looking great btw

  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, S Glos, nr Bristol
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, S Glos, nr Bristol
Posted

 Methuselah dunno. Cant find it on the Aemet website.

Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
Posted

 swfc based on my own predictions.  Don't follow teleconections whatsoever as they are never right!  Just watch this space.....☺

  • Like 2
  • Insightful 1
Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

 ANYWEATHER

So you're dishing out most likely false hope on a hunch? 🤔

  • Like 5
Posted
  • Location: Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: BWh
  • Location: Cheshire
Posted

Already mentally counting down to spring to be honest. Can't believe it's only three months away.

  • Thanks 1
Posted
  • Location: Dundee
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunderstorms, gales. All extremes except humidity.
  • Location: Dundee
Posted

Storm is bringing snow to low levels north of the central belt up here. A 93 near Blairgowrie, Perthshire just now.

IMG_3113.png

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1
Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted

the most un December day, could pass for any month, 5th Aug 2023, 25 Sept '12, 21st July '07

Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
Posted

 I remember Atlantic 252 Interesting comment, not sure what the comparisons are? Similiar synoptics?

On the temp, and rainfall front very standard Dec fayre and the storm not unusual other than the wind direction perhaps. 

  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted

those days and many others had the same weather as this today, often as you mentioned these sort of days have warm sectors normally, so can feel warmer than the same weather in summer

Posted
  • Location: Southend
  • Weather Preferences: Clear blue skies!
  • Location: Southend
Posted

Utterly atrocious day out there. Gale force winds, lashing rain, gloomy skies. For me, this has been one of the worst years I've ever experienced both personally and weather wise. Summer was fine but the rest of the year has been pathetic to say the least.

  • Like 2
Posted
  • Location: North London
  • Location: North London
Posted

Here it's rainy and breezy but I wouldn't call it a storm if I didn't know there was one. Still an awful day.

Posted
  • Location: North London
  • Location: North London
Posted

According to meto perceived temp is 1c, but that's nonsense. I have been outside without a jacket on and it was alright. Not mild but definitely not icy cold. Bit of rain, bit of a breeze, but nothing apocalyptic. We could do without the constant exaggeration...

  • Like 3
Posted
  • Location: Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Warm-by-day sunny thundery summers , short cold snowy winters.
  • Location: Hampshire
Posted
22 hours ago, knocker said:

After temps hovering around average or a tad below signs of them trending a little above average in the zonal flow last week of Dec and the first half of Jan. according to the ec46 update

500 hPa height and 2m weekly mean anomalies 30 - 06

Oh my, the Daffs could be out early this year

Same old same old for late Dec and early Jan if that comes off.....

Mind you, if the next couple of weeks are average to below, then the winter as a whole won't have been silly mild to mid Jan, so no particular sign for daffodils to come out early, I guess.

 *Stormforce~beka* Hopefully 2023 and 2024 won't be repeated again. I'm more thinking of a reversion to a typical spring of the past 15 years, i.e. mostly fine and sunny.

  • Thanks 1
Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Posted (edited)

Well looking outside today I'm ready for spring and  im a cold and snow guy.Long time to go bit I'm of the opinion a wet stormy winter is on the way.Nothing to do with ssw mjo etc just a feeling

Il get my coat 

Edited by swfc
Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
Posted
50 minutes ago, SunnyG said:

According to meto perceived temp is 1c, but that's nonsense.

Whether you perceive it that way or not is irrelevant but the wind chill temperature is correct.

IMG_5605.thumb.png.3634b32253b7be69f6e5e8214b4c6a2f.png

  • Like 2
Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON
Posted

 Methuselah the Spanish met office predicts that the weather in the UK this winter will be a paella of sheet👍

  • Like 4
Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Posted

 Methuselah i think the french winter forecasts were well respected but I've not looked recently 

Posted
  • Location: Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Warm-by-day sunny thundery summers , short cold snowy winters.
  • Location: Hampshire
Posted (edited)

There does seem to be an awful lot of gloom about this winter, the consensus being to write the whole season off just a few days in.

Is this based on typical cynicism (I'm as guilty myself at times), model runs showing a poor period leading up to the solstice, or something else?

After the mostly dire past 18 months it would be very bad luck to see a terrible winter, and by the time we get to the end of Feb that will basically be 20 months of mostly poor weather with just the odd break (e.g. June and Nov this year providing something a bit different).

Does anyone seriously think our climate has now shifted to something much duller and wetter than before? Beginning to wonder, my instinct is not and that we've just had a long run of bad luck recently. Even still, based on three of the past four years being dull and 1991-2000 being sunny, I am half-expecting 2001-30 to see significantly lower sunshine levels than 1991-2020!

My feeling is that the winter won't be too awful but as usual, around Dec 21-Jan 15 will be pretty dismal. February in particular far closer to the long-term average than Feb 2024. But this isn't based on any expert knowledge...

And spring? I think we'll be unlucky to get a third poor spring on the trot, I'm inclined towards a return to a warm and sunny spring typical of the 2007-22 period.

Edited by Summer8906
  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: SE Wales.
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy winters, mild/warm summers and varied shoulder seasons
  • Location: SE Wales.
Posted

 Summer8906 I would say a mixture of background drivers and bad luck. We were consistently under a vile west based NAO- regime the 2nd half of 2023 and 1st half of 2024 which may have been caused by Nino (I imagine its no cocidence that it started in earnest when Nino kicked in and started tapering off when Nino ended late spring this year) its not been that bad since June for my area with only the 2nd week of July and the last third of September being poor for me. I think even with the garbage NAO- set ups weve had bad luck where the "Azores" low has often tended to ether linger to the west/SW of the British Isles as a Biscay low pumping in wet dull SWles or right on top of us. (The best NAO- set ups are when the Azores low ether stays well over the Azores out of the way or gets shoved into the Med which means easterlies for us in that case). Basically NAO- tends to shove lows into Europe somewhere and the Azores low seemed to make a beeline for the Biscay/BI area. Plus it seems even compared to other locations Hampshire seems to get a lot of bad luck lately with sunshine like ive seen sunshine maps where Hampshire was a island of grey surrounded by whites and yellows. 30-40 miles ether side of you on the coast often seems to get far sunnier weather for some reason.  At this stage I just think honestly there's a cloud lovers cult in Hampshire that keeps summoning cloud. 

If I had to say which parts of Europe get poor weather under each NAO- type I would say the following
West based= British Isles, France, Iberia maybe Benelux
Central based= All the western half of Europe really. 
East based= Scandivania,Baltics,Central Europe (Although sometimes under east based NAO- you get a Europe wide cyclonic regime like Julys 2011 and 2021.) 

image.thumb.png.283e485abd06ee9a8b28bdb08ee51901.png

 

Since June weve had a more typical NAO+ pattern which is miles better than west based NAO-- garbage even in winter (Yeah NAO+ can be bad in winter but even if cyclonic tends to be less dull as you get more rPm and Pm air masses often under cyclonic NAO+ and it tends to be more zonal anyways less stagnant cloud lingering) 

image.thumb.png.01b576805f6861585d2550a23b53dbd4.png

  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: Coatbridge, Scotland 129 m
  • Weather Preferences: snow in winter,warm sun in summer!!!!
  • Location: Coatbridge, Scotland 129 m
Posted

 Summer8906 good post mate. I think as the climates warms we are seeing more cloud. Noticed in the colder spell last January up here with winds from the east we got a lot of low cloud and never seen one frost, just days of nothingness. We   normally get this  in spring and summer and usually melts away as the sun gets to work but dont seen it in winter often. Reason were the 850's not cold enough not sure but now finding winter a slog now . At least at my age I have seen some memorable winters now fear the younger members will be lucky to see snow most winters.

  • Like 2
Posted
  • Location: Winchester, Hampshire ~ Southern Central!
  • Location: Winchester, Hampshire ~ Southern Central!
Posted

 Summer8906 If it does then I expect nothing else but this forever.

Meanwhile Why am I in a major storm which isn't even raining? For hte millionth time this year its bloody drizzle. I hate drizzle!

  • Like 1

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