Winter 24-25 Moans, chat and ramp thread

[Robbie Coldrain]

Lol.    

[Metwatch]

Perfect afternoon following low cloud this morning. Sunny, no wind, 11°C. Best type of conditions in winter after snow! Looks like only got this for one day unfortunately!

[*Stormforce~beka*]

 In Absence of True Seasons I ... I ... I ... appear to have blue something above?! ...

The sky is broken!!!!

 Metwatch A few hours you mean. didn't start like this!

[Metwatch]

21 hours ago, SunSean said:

I've enjoyed the first half of January, plenty of crisp Winter sunshine.

Forecast is utterly diabolical from tomorrow onwards though, zero sun/100% overcast for the foreseeable

Does feel like this month could pan out the opposite to November.

A decent first half then a poor second half, whereas with November the first half was very poor, but the second half was a significant improvement re sunshine. My daily ratings for this January average out to a 5.5/10 so far, pretty decent, with the snow in Cumbria those 2 days helping a fair bit.

[Snowshine]

 Metwatch Yes I noticed that today is a particularly nice day, but there is actually a fair bit of sunshine in the forecast! Hopefully the low cloud doesn't linger around for too long over the next few days.

Edited January 15 by Snowshine

[raz.org.rain]

First time I've gone down a coat size in a while. Foggy here but not cold, seems to happen a lot more these days. I used to associate fog with freezing temperatures.

Edited January 15 by raz.org.rain

[Summer8906]

 Robbie Coldrain Is that a lol? Just looks dry with unremarkable temperatures to me, neither especially cold nor especially mild.

But the longer the Atlantic can stay away, the better!

Separate post, was auto-merged:

A very unusual combination of prolonged sunshine and mild temperatures for much of today - not what I was expecting (low cloud, gloom and dampness). Better than that, obviously!

Very January 1981-like, for those that can remember that. The air has a very "dry" look about it so could we see frost tonight?

Edited January 15 by Summer8906

[summer blizzard]

Like November, the forecast looks to take us past day 14 without precipitation here so a notable dry spell. 

3 weeks is the notable mark here though, rarely hit and the record from May-June 23 being 29 days.

It's not that uncommon for dry spells to cluster though, we managed to pass 3 weeks in Feb 13 and July 13 here and I'm sure I'm forgetting a few 2 week spells. 

 

Edited January 15 by summer blizzard

[knocker]

I think it totally unfair that the Mod thread is privy to outputs that the rest us can't see. 

[SussexSnowman]

Hello cloudy my old friend 

[Methuselah]

 SussexSnowman

Are you Simon or Garfunkel? 

[SussexSnowman]

 Methuselah  the Garfunkel hair and Simon voice

[cheese]

 summer blizzard true. pretty much all the accumulated precipitation this month is snow melt. 

[Metwatch]

Didn't take long for the fog to arrive then! Down to 5°C now. Moon's just came up too.

[baddie]

 Summer8906 I would rather it get mild and wet sooner to get all of the unsettled weather out the way by mid-Feb, then the blocking from around Feb 20th all the way to the end of March (Cold-ish NE-lies though with a decent amount of sunny days until mid-March, then warm and sunny after the equinox). Perhaps a poor-ish Feb but a good March

Edited January 15 by baddie

[Summer8906]

 baddie Mind you we can have years like 2003 when the Atlantic didn't get in at all for longer than a few days at a time throughout the first three months of the year. Indeed, May was literally the only poor month of the first 10 of the year (though July was rather mixed).

That's what I'm hoping for this time to be honest, trending coldish for now but warmer in second half of Feb and all of March. An unusually dry and sunny first quarter of the year would make up for the wet gloomfest which was most of late 2023 and 2024!

What I hope won't happen is that the 1980/81 comparisons (not total, but more than a passing resemblance) don't hang around in March!

Edited January 15 by Summer8906

[baddie]

 Summer8906 I dont want too much prolonged warm weather in Feb-April because it often leads to spartan Mays/early-Junes. I dont want a 2013 or 1996 repeat by any means, but perhaps a Feb-June 2023 repeat but replacing the last 3 weeks of March with 2003, 2022 or the one I described in the "Create your ideal March" thread (Keep April 2023, but with more fine sunny days)
Late-May/Early-June 2023 was such a lovely period (For that fresh late-spring look and the weather), 

Edited January 15 by baddie

[BigJoe091270]

I've been a long time observer of this site. I don't understand what you guys talk about. But...I do understand that the universe and everything in it is hard to predict due to chaos. Small details are amplified over time and make big differences. It's because of this fact that we're mostly disillusioned by the fallacy of using historical data to predict the future, beyond a certain point. Ironically the original proponent of chaos theory was a weather observer who couldn't fathom why his models didn't work. It turned out that rounding of numbers in the data made big differences. A few decades later and we have thousands of times more powerful computers and infinitely greater data sets, yet still we're not that good at predicting much beyond 6 days. This proves that miniscule differences can have huge effects over time. I think a good example of tiny things making big differences over time is once upon a time about 3 billion years ago 1 cell encapsulated another, gave rise to mitochondria, which put us here today. 

 

Add to this, human nature cognitive bias and emotions and chaos becomes irrationally rational, somehow.

 

I don't know if we'll ever have computers powerful enough to track miniscule permutations on a global scale to accurately make weather predictions for any particular location, the system is way too complicated.

 

But...I do love getting my popcorn out and observing these types of threads when there's something spicy showing in the charts in 10 days time. 

 

I would love to see an easterly like Jan 87 again, that will forever be in my memory, 6ft drifts on the river banks and river frozen solid. 

[TheOgre]

That easterly on GFS has turned into a Bartlett High then I’m glad it’s gone, the quicker they go the lesser the disappointment. At least we had a few hard rime frosts last week and a minor snowfall.

Not overly bothered about February or March but I’m hoping for a warm and sunny April and May this year like 2020

[Azazel]

Had my first spring pangs yesterday - mainly because the sun was out I think and it was nice and calm. Gave me a crazy boost of energy which shows how strongly SAD affects me at this time of year. 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Aye, cold seems to get less likely from mid Jan, wouldn't mind a bit of spring now

[Alderc 2.0]

Forecast for late January is about as good as gets to be honest. No harsh cold, dry, no winter storms and some sunshine to boot. 

[A Face like Thunder]

Another lovely start to the day and very uplifting at a time of the year when it's clearly needed.

[Mullet]

Couple of weeks and we'll be on the home straight for this meteorological winter. I do enjoy February in a weird way, despite getting fatigued with the gloom. Leaving work in the light towards the end of the month, knowing the clocks will be going forward soon. Nature preparing to get going again. 

Not wanting to wish life away, but as a golfer and a father of three energetic boys, I'm climbing the walls at this stage of winter!

I still wouldn't mind a significant snowfall before the season is out, as it's been several years since I've seen it. For me, it would need to start showing up in the modelling within the next two to three weeks. The strengthening sun and longer days start to take the edge off much past mid Feb down here, the inverse of which happens for notable heat in late August. 

 

[SiGh]

After a mild calima yday afters, today's skies are clear blue with a breeze from the east/se. Shade temp of 20c, feeling like 27c in the sun.

The Isle of Lobos, in Corralejo bay.