Storm Darragh - Red Warning Issued

[StingJet]

 KTtom a great point KTtom,  vary rare indeed for a windstorm to deliver from the north west / north  with 1043MB HP ridged out west creating a pressure differential of significant noteworthiness .and the occlusion still there on the Fax T+48. If the occlusion does manifest , this may explain " lower" (relatively speaking)  mean windspeeds but apocalyptic squally gusts (UKMO forecast data) as the occlusion gets drawn in to the western flank

Edited December 5, 2024 by StingJet

[StingJet]

 HarvSlugger possibly mate , but Pembrokeshire is well exposed with a long fetch nnw flow , the Isle of Man stands between me and the F9-F11

I may have double batten down tomorrow,  as most wind storms here deliver from the south - west as KTtom noted above , and why most of the trees / bushes have a tendency to grow with a lean away from the prevailing wind direction 

Edited December 5, 2024 by StingJet

[Islander]

Met Office forecasting 84mph here on Saturday heard we’re getting a Red weather warning in the morning!

[BS16Weather]

 SiGh Something very strong went through here around an hour ago in Fishponds Bristol, Full wheelie bins knocked over across the entire street, I have a very large bag of soaking cardboard which is very heavy, and that ended up a few doors down too.  Looking at the radar, a squall line passed through, but not experienced this happening in previous ones! 

[StingJet]

 BS16Weather I got hit around school run time ,  torrential rain and F9+ for a good hour,  such was the rain,  the fields, already saturated could not cope, the run off was immense with rivers flowing across the roads and ponding in the dips  

[Liam Burge]

 Islander Where did you hear this from?

[SiGh]

 BS16Weather ah, yes, winds strongest at around 18.30 here. Was in process of putting all our bins out for tom's collection and the bin with plastics in just scooted across our garden; trying to find all the spilled plastic in our dark back garden was fun, as the rain lashed down.

[StingJet]

 Islander fingers crossed for you that it wont be as bad as Storm Ciaran was

Edited December 5, 2024 by StingJet

[Islander]

 StingJet Hopefully not, looks like it’s more the sustained longevity of it more so than the max gusts.
Liam unfortunately I can’t divulge my sources of this information, really sorry…. 

[davehsug]

Our local rag online is reporting damage from tonight's wind as being storm Darragh. Is it any wonder that warnings get criticised when the media regularly misreports weather events, preferring sensationalist headlines?

[Mcconnor8]

GFS 18z and ICON 18z both slightly deeper than the 12z runs and more in line with the ECM 12z which reached 976/977mb around 3/4AM on Saturday.

Max gusts from the ECM above which should be pretty accurate as I find the ECM to not overdo them as much as other models.

[WYorksWeather]

We may as well move to live tracking from this point - models will be hours behind. Darragh currently centred 998mb according to Meteociel.

[Penguin16]

My prediction 90mph NW wales. 80mph NI

[HarvSlugger]

My prediction is for capel curing to get a max gust of 89-92mph

 Mcconnor8 latest Arpege also deeper!

[Mcconnor8]

 

[HurricaneSteve]

I've seen 80mph gusts on the Met Office site for inland locations - South-West

That means higher for exposed locations

I think they'll go Red with the warnings on Friday

A busy shopping Saturday in December, but those winds are Hurricane Force Gusts

You don't mess with that - expect damage and disruption

[KTtom]

 HarvSlugger im going for somwhere in west Wales to breach 100 mph. Shame there wasnt a station on top of Preselis.

[HarvSlugger]

 KTtom yes I know! I've always said this, why isn't there it would be absolutely insane!. Someone put one up here and put it on wunderground

[Sky Full]

 KTtom   At least one model - UKMO no less - agrees with you.   This is 6:00am Saturday, and yes, that’s 162kph (100mph) over the Llyn peninsula….

That coastal path from Aberporth to Tresaith will make for an interesting walk on Saturday morning…..    Might be some big waves coming in but then again, it might be one to avoid!    I hope all those caravans are well tied down.

Edited December 6, 2024 by Sky Full

[HarvSlugger]

If you look VERY closely at this chart there is actually a tiny dot of 96mph gust and it's literally on my house!!

Edited December 6, 2024 by HarvSlugger

[Liam Burge]

Given model consistencies I fully expect the Met to issue a red today for parts of the SW coast extending into the West coast of Wales - potentially even a blanket red for much of SW England given some model guidance.

 

When taking into consideration all the factors then this is an obvious red warning imo. The fact the strongest winds are going to be coinciding with high tides, the strength of the winds (up to 90mph+ gusts on the coasts, with 70-80mph in-land, not even in exposed locations), the very rare and unusual wind direction, the timing of these winds (happening on a weekend) and finally the most important factor, at least in my opinion, is the longevity of these winds. Some locations are forecast to see 80mph+ gusts for several hours straight.

 

When considering all these factors and looking at previous red warnings, Darragh seems no different in strength to other storms that reached that calibre of warning.

When looking at the possible impacts from Darragh and comparing them with what the Met has publicly for their warning system, it's an easy red.

Edited December 6, 2024 by Liam Burge

[StingJet]

An uptick on max gusts for me from UKMO now at 88mph , which firmly places it in a 1 in 5 year , perhaps 10 year wind event 
Again to note the wind direction NW - N which is very very rare from a windstorm perspective.
Aberdaron and Capel Curig , north west Wales's "windiest spots" get hit hard in a Sw'erly , with Aberdaron getting the flow full in the face , whereas Capel Curig in a Sw'er has elevated wind flow via the passes that run sw-ne effectively funnelling the wind straight up the passes (Llanberis, but I may stand corrected on this). It will be interesting to see where the peak winds hit in this NW/N direction, nonetheless potentially a rough few hours on the cards , even for those out of the Amber warning and effected by the yellow warning.

The calm before the Storm this morning , to complete all necessary batten'ing down 

Edited December 6, 2024 by StingJet

[HarvSlugger]

UKV is literally worse for this storm than Eunice was.for west Wales anyway.Red warning needed

Storm Darragh

Storm Eunice

Its actually crazy how similar these storms are in terms of wind gusts!

And this storm lasts much longer!

If you can notice the high gusts get alot more inland in west Wales compared to Eunice especially the hills

 

 

 

 

 

Edited December 6, 2024 by HarvSlugger

[Sky Full]

 Liam Burge   Agreed!   I’ve been looking at past data for storms affecting the UK and the occurrence of sustained 80mph+ gusts seems quite rare.  The record gust for the west coast of Wales seems to be 107mph held by Aberporth during the Burns Day storm of 1990 (unless someone can correct me) 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/weather/learn-about/uk-past-events/interesting/1990/burns-day-storm---25-january-1990---met-office.pdf

I can’t find any December storms in the recent past which compare with the predicted strength of Darragh so we could see some records broken this weekend.

[matty40s]

 davehsug "Our local rag online is reporting damage from tonight's wind as being storm Darragh. Is it any wonder that warnings get criticised when the media regularly misreports weather events, preferring sensationalist headlines?"

 

Cant imagine what sensationalist headlines you might have seen...