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Posted
  • Location: Hermon Pembrokeshire(184M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Anything severe/extreme
  • Location: Hermon Pembrokeshire(184M ASL)
Posted

 Mcconnor8 UKV is the most severe with the gusts.but people say ukv overestimates winds so I don't know

  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: Lancing
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Lancing
Posted

 HarvSlugger ECM is usually the most accurate I've found, isnt as high res as the UKV but doesn't overestimate.

  • Like 2
Posted
  • Location: Brongest,Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Stormy Autumn/Winter, hot and sunny Spring/Summer with thunderstorms.
  • Location: Brongest,Wales
Posted

 HarvSlugger Well Recently the met office gust predictions seem to have been less accurate compared to the BBCs and other places, sometimes by a good 10 or 15mph so hopefully that could mean that peak gusts will be more like 60-70mph rather than 80mph or 90mph.

We were under a yellow warning yesterday and the winds we had were not worthy of that only peaking in the 20's and 30's mph when we were meant to have 40-50mph.

  • Like 4
Posted
  • Location: Swindon
  • Location: Swindon
Posted

 HarvSlugger to be fair to the met office, their text descriptions of the gusts possible, which accompany the warnings, are usually very accurate. They of course will be aware of the ups and downs of various models, and will have filtered through the details to produce their guidelines for this storm. I'd trust the text descriptions more than any specific model outputs, or location forecasts, as we know there are a few issues with those anyway. 

  • Like 4
Posted
  • Location: Swinton Greater Manchester
  • Location: Swinton Greater Manchester
Posted

It is funny, when a storm is approaching sky turns a grey ash colour with a weak sun trying to push through and ultra calm outside.  Been shopping this morning and it was cold.  Now we are sitting in front of the fire looking out and watching the storm as it approaches from the west. Wonder how West Ireland are coping!

  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: Cullompton, Devon
  • Location: Cullompton, Devon
Posted

 Gary2701 Increasing humidity ahead of the initial warm front means we get ever lowering clouds as the storm approaches, from high level cirrus through mid level alto to low level stratus.

  • Like 2
  • Insightful 2
Posted
  • Location: Livingston (ish)
  • Location: Livingston (ish)
Posted

Can someone tell me what's steering this storm? I've been tracking the centre and it's been moving north eastwards. Currently the centre is at 54.4 degrees N. I thought the centre was gonna track over northern England so what's gonna make it turn and when? I'm guessing the wee blue kinked bit in the winds is gonna be the track. Notice the use of technical meteorological terms here like "wee blue kinked bit" and explain to me like I'm five please.

Screenshot 2024-12-06 at 12.54.03.png

  • Like 2
Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, Fiona Robertson said:

Can someone tell me what's steering this storm?

The jet stream

Edited by Mapantz
  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
Posted

GFS is the absolute king for wind gusts within 48 hours. If it's right this time (yet again), then 75-80mph for Welsh coasts, maybe 70-75mph later in in the Bristol Channel. Dangerous, but there's been worse. A little less severe than the Met Office are predicting.

Posted
  • Location: Thornbury, South Glos
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes
  • Location: Thornbury, South Glos
Posted

A potentially very notable storm on the way. I'm just outside the red warning area but the met office are forecasting  30 hours of winds gusting at 50mph and over for this location. Areas where winds are even stronger are in for a prolonged battering.

The duration of the storm is as impressive as some of the wind speeds forecast and this combined with the wind direction could cause some major damage.

  • Like 2
Posted
  • Location: Hermon Pembrokeshire(184M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Anything severe/extreme
  • Location: Hermon Pembrokeshire(184M ASL)
Posted

 Man With Beard I'll bet anything that coast of Wales get at least 90 mph gusts🙂

  • Like 2
Posted
  • Location: Lockerbie
  • Location: Lockerbie
Posted

Does the Isle of Man fall through a gap in the warnings system, or is it really going to miss all the chaos?

Posted
  • Location: Livingston (ish)
  • Location: Livingston (ish)
Posted

 Mapantz See, that's what I thought, but I just looked at the jet stream and if it follows that , the centre will make land fall north of Glasgow. I thought the centre was supposed to track over northern England. Wee green circle marks the centre.

Screenshot 2024-12-06 at 12.54.03.png

Screenshot 2024-12-06 at 12.41.18.png

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
Posted

 Fiona Robertson

Don't forget, the jet stream is also moving. The system is not moving over the jet stream, the jet stream is carrying it. 

GFSOPEU06_12_21.thumb.png.da0b15fd5be1f4d96ec59d938c3a28c0.png GFSOPEU06_18_21.thumb.png.f99a7234aff6c1a90d7f19ebc0e4f2bf.png

  • Like 4
  • Insightful 1
Posted
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunder & Lightning, Thundersnow, Storms, Heatwave
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
Posted

Yes I often too find the GFS and ECM better than the higher res models for gusts, although the MetOffice text forecast does mention 90mph+ for coasts on this occasion so we'll see.

Although there has been worse maximum speeds (particularly from a nationwide perspective), I do not re-call seeing one home in West Wales with North Westerly winds at this speed, and for the duration forecast. I know this has probably been mentioned but the direction of the wind and duration of the highest gusts I think is important here, as much as the maximum speed. Having grown up in Pembrokeshire, wind and storms are obviously common in winter - but north westerly winds gusting between 75 and 85mph for 12 hours will be noteworthy (if those speeds do occur).

MetOffice has 80mph or higher gusts for Haverfordwest, which is a low lying town inland and not immediately coastal, from 3am to 12pm and above 70mph until 9pm. Looks like the worst since 12th Feb 2014 back home - where 94mph was recorded on Cleddau Bridge in Pembrokeshire, but those gusts were over a shorter duration.

  • Thanks 1
Posted
  • Location: Isle of Canvey, Thames Estuary
  • Location: Isle of Canvey, Thames Estuary
Posted

In addition to the usual charts, during these wind events I like to look at vesselfinder. com to see how the wave heights are doing!

Click on a ship (not too far out in the sea as it won’t produce data from it). And under the banner ‘weather’, along with the temp you can see the current wave height.

 

WWW.VESSELFINDER.COM

VesselFinder is a FREE AIS vessel tracking web site. VesselFinder displays real time ship positions and marine traffic detected by global AIS network.

 

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Posted
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
Posted (edited)

Latest satellite image

image.thumb.png.212941f56682c63bb6746aa268dda935.png

 

Edited by Dorsetbred
  • Like 2
Posted
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.
Posted

Certain places are sheltered from the N/NW wind..

Lake Vyrnwy  is so will be fascinating to see how tomorrow pans out with a november 2021 style storm..

Or a 2007 summer severe Nly gale..summer style..

 

 

Posted
  • Location: Swindon
  • Location: Swindon
Posted

 HarvSlugger shame Mumbles station is closed. That station recorded the highest gust of many storms. The highest I can remember was in the mid 90s I think. I can't remember the year but I can remember the gust - 115mph. 

Posted
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunder & Lightning, Thundersnow, Storms, Heatwave
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
Posted

For those that know it, Abereiddy (Blue Lagoon) would be some place to be tomorrow morning I imagine. It faces north west, on the north west Pembrokeshire coast. I imagine St Davids will be really rough too.

  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: Hermon Pembrokeshire(184M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Anything severe/extreme
  • Location: Hermon Pembrokeshire(184M ASL)
Posted (edited)

 bradymk ayyyy Pembrokeshire😨😨

 richie3846 never knew that closed down,but for this specific,it won't be the most exposed. because of the direction  of the winds, interested to see what aberporth get. 

I also have a 10m high weather station and I'm very exposed from this direction👀

Edited by HarvSlugger
  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: NW Wales/Snowdonia 1002ft ASL
  • Location: NW Wales/Snowdonia 1002ft ASL
Posted (edited)

My vote goes for stations Aberdaron and Capel Curig for highest gusts. 

Edited by andy989

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