Winter Season: Forecast and Model Discussion Commentary

[Community Team]

As we move into the DJF winter season a new thread to continue with Forecast and Model Discussions.

Please use this thread for discussing any aspect of upcoming winter weather including model output, seasonal forecasts from other organisations, matches with past winters, teleconnections and other weather-related inputs to the outlook. Please use your Regional thread for discussing local 'in my backyard' prospects and weather. Reference to climate change on immediate prospects is acceptable as part of a wider post, but please use the dedicated Climate Change area for any in-depth discussions. Please use the 'insightful' reaction if you believe a post in here also warrants being copied over to the Model Output Discussion Highlights thread.

As ever - please keep things friendly, civil and within the community guidelines. If you spot any posts you think don't meet that criteria, please report them.

Thank you and happy model watching!

[blizzard81]

A crumb of comfort today is that there is a huge spread in the ensembles from day 8. 

[Jacob]

Based on the teleconnection forecast from the CFS, it doesn’t look very likely for a cold spell in late December 

[bluearmy]

 Jacob lucky it’s the cfs then. (Comedy Forecast System ) 

but no getting away from thr the direction of travel and momentum over the last few days. Yes we do get some swing backs from time to time but those are up against it.  The NH profile end week 2 across the ens Is offering a stronger looking tpv. Less disorganised members than a few days ago. 
id say that the next couple weeks are unlikely to bring anything wintry on a widespread level. But late week 2 and week 3 remain uncertain (as ever). 

Edited December 7, 2024 by bluearmy

[swfc-ocs]

 Jacob given the current outputs no better or worse than those I've seen imo.That said im not a pro .

Edited December 7, 2024 by swfc

[blizzard81]

Slight improvement on the ECM 06z at 144hr compared to the 00z. Less of a topple to the atlantic high. Would probably go the same way though.

[damianslaw]

 blizzard81 The above synoptics are not far off a cold set up were it not for the low pressure to the NW, mid atlantic heights would be able to join the arctic heights, alas not to be it seems. The upcoming week will be chilly with near average temps, quite cold in the north with fog and frost slow to clear. 

Edited December 7, 2024 by damianslaw

[TSNWK]

 blizzard81 thanks.. i mused this morning that run by run smidge by smidge things have improved with heights and colder uppers end of working week..

probably delaying the inevitable but us coldies feed on any scraps 

[Ice age Island gsy 2013]

Been following these forums the last couple of years and i must say i am extremely impressed with how much time, dedication and effort all of you put into updating everyone with your opinions, comments and thoughts, Currently the models are chopping and changing all the time, we just need this zonal setup to blow itself out and then hopefully we'll then be in with a chance of something more cold and wintry. 

[swfc-ocs]

 Ice age Island gsy 2013 yes need a major shake up on the nhp tbh.hopefully sooner than later

[blizzard81]

 TSNWK Yep, scraps being the operative word lol.

[Dennis]

for the next week no signs of any good cold winter idea (im sorry) -the MJO phase 5 we get into now isnt good for blocking signs on the right position for west europe 

 

ICON12z

new keypoint 14-16dec  for have some new options to last part dec24

 

 

Edited December 7, 2024 by Dennis

[TSNWK]

 blizzard81 indeed. Like a fox going through the bins. . Every so often we find a tasty lamb chop.. usually its a bit of stale bread..

Onto the 12zs bin rummage 

 

[blizzard81]

 TSNWK indeed mate.

[bluearmy]

 TSNWK and sadly the lamb chops generally turn out to be stale bits of bread ……

[northwestsnow]

GEFS doesn't have the mjo reaching phase 6 until the 17th of Dec

and low amplitude too..

[Legend.Ice]

The snow cover is not very good for Europe in general, Turkey, a country close to the southern latitudes has an interesting amount of snow, while southern Russia and Ukraine are terrible about snow cover 

[Dennis]

no comments to next week go away MJO5

[TSNWK]

Think this is where a decent mojo setting…. Would have helped to lift all those heights stretching from us to Canada to life northwards.. dropping the vortex over us..

as it is presently it’s all left to right and flat

[Dennis]

 something is there....

Edited December 7, 2024 by Dennis

[TSNWK]

Yay! Found a scrap.. day 10 northerly toppler 

 

[AO-]

Good afternoon. 

Still curious why the shortwave is behaving the way it is projected. It seems like it has nowhere to go and the WAA to the West would "dissolve" the system. Besides it is surrounded by high pressure...

But instead the shortwave is moving Northeast. 

Edited December 7, 2024 by AO-

[Dennis]

Gem12z

[Cleeve Hill]

These are not bad charts for the next 10 days you know. No mild south westerlies and when the High retrogresses we have North Westerlies which is great news for the Scottish ski resorts and into Europe. All very seasonal and a big improvement on prior years. 

[bluearmy]

 Legend.Ice mountainous areas of Turkey