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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted

It will be better when we can see nhp view but it’s trying.👍

IMG_1867.jpeg

  • Thanks 1
Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
Posted

ECM up to day 9 is better to my eye.. heights further north to our west.. could do with low to north east getting a move on south east..

 

 

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  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted

 bluearmy you’ve seen I guess.

IMG_1868.jpeg

  • Like 4
Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
Posted (edited)

I think we have to be content with this day 10 for now.. nice swing to something better with heights to our west…

leave the rest for someone else now.. back for a barnstormin of pub run.. with free pole dancers  and card tables

 

image.jpeg

Edited by TSNWK
  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1
Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Location: Cambridge
Posted

-30 dam, very nice anomaly for z500, but our 850 hectopascal cold is always flyweight, -2/-4 weak entries, when will the vortex take a hit 🤔🥶

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  • Like 2
Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
Posted

We have some foundations to build on now after the 12z runs. We're getting to the nitty gritty time for Christmas. 

  • Like 2
Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted (edited)

Interesting to look at the vertical zonal winds profile for the GFS 0z and GFS 12z:

IMG_9661.thumb.png.2cfd88227d8033f395f7fbb4e2a4c7a8.pngIMG_9666.thumb.png.473154c689baac49b7d62443ebe77f11.png

They could not be more different in the troposphere.  The 0z (left) shows a coupled vortex increasingly taking hold towards the end, the 12z shows the exact opposite, with the trop pattern maybe even starting to affect things higher up. 

This is probably nothing to do with the extra data between the two runs, these are two examples drawn from (extreme ends of?) the envelope of uncertainty that the models are struggling with.  I’m not expecting this to be resolved quickly, but while runs like the 12z are showing, we live to fight a little longer…

Edited by Mike Poole
  • Like 7
  • Thanks 2
Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted

Sun 22nd these are all maxima 

 

17341172221313691545829926316981.thumb.jpg.314b850a36b147992c7fe46afb007c12.jpg

23rd

17341172591651240334887733521963.thumb.jpg.a78027e4f76b7ddb9d20e06fa9c9697d.jpg

24th

1734117281631650231250275171705.thumb.jpg.af87696ccc757acb70d9f3fd6731259e.jpg

 

Christmas Day surface temps 

17341171350033027813737132565629.thumb.jpg.04e06eb8a0423d979dbcb029a86a6471.jpg

Boxing day 

17341171671626228662500634215390.thumb.jpg.951daa0ec9d076f0f59cbcc881f88f7a.jpg

 

Can't remember the last time we has zero maxima 26th Dec?

2010 ?

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
Posted

 Mike Poole This is what I've been stressing all day - volatility. Just one thing about those charts though. It's the 00z (not the 06z) and 12z. So maybe scope for new data? 

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1
Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted (edited)

To balance things out the FI isn't nice viewing - nothing like GFS,lots of blues and purples across northern latitudes ..

TBH I'd take a cold dry Christmas if offered it now,even if it meant a period of +NAO ( like the det).

Edited by northwestsnow
  • Like 4
Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted

 blizzard81 Thanks, thought I’d saved the 6z earlier but obviously not!  Amended.  Still think given the time into the run we’re talking abut it probably is still down to the volatility, rather than 12 hours data, but we live in hope!

  • Like 1
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Posted
  • Location: Various
  • Location: Various
Posted

When I went out this morning: 'winter was over' 😏

Come back this evening and GFS and ECM would bring the most festive Christmas weather in many a year ☃️

 

Amazing. We’re all hoping 🙂 

  • Like 4
Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted (edited)

 Cambrian

Yep we want that troughing at around 144 to dig as far south as possible..

Opens the door from the NW ,jet axis key and fine margins have big impacts down the line.

This might be our " curveball " ,anything like GFS  could trigger a pattern change..

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Edited by northwestsnow
  • Like 4
Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire
Posted

Terrific GFS op run. Much better ensembles. Better ECM op

But MOGREPS 12z ensembles have taken an even worse turn for next weekend than the 6z run

image.thumb.png.652a3999a621f89aa675be494c40547b.png

How can the GFS ensembles be so different for 20th and 21st?!

image.thumb.png.cc642079eb1819771afc6ebabf8bae16.png

 

  • Like 1
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted

Both the ECM and GFS have similar upstream patterns at day 7.

It’s after this they diverge but at least both options have potential . Yes I know this word should come with a health warning ! 
 

 

  • Like 2
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