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Posted
  • Location: Caldercruix, North Lanarkshire - 188m asl
  • Location: Caldercruix, North Lanarkshire - 188m asl
Posted

 LRD probably too early to be claiming any victories giving the volatility in the output at present. Whilst the trend is not looking promising, the swings in output and varying upstream differences give zero confidence in any of the outputs at present. It feels like a "wait and see" few days but definitely premature to claim any small wins 

  • Like 8
Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
Posted

 I remember Atlantic 252 I hope so too, as although has admittedly found interest in the previous windstorm, I don’t think I could put up with another one at the moment (although hopefully that one won’t be as bad - should it come off. Though I guess the flow would still be the problem). 

  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted

 Ruzzi T240 T348 Gefs the volatility is any pm shots. The hopes and excitement are more us wanting to see good output and if the op picks up something from the bottom of the pack then we start thinking maybe. 

 

Interestingly the Gefs at T384 have more better options than I have seen in awhile. 
 

This could of course be me wanting to see better output but I think it’s an improvement. 

IMG_1870.png

IMG_1869.png

  • Like 2
Posted
  • Location: Bicester
  • Location: Bicester
Posted

Where has the decent output of yesterday gone,the means we’re looking great with a well defined ridge!that seems to have disappeared this morning..I fear this winter is going to be a real struggle 

  • Like 2
Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted

 Mike Poole true enough

Nothing really much to be optimistic about this morning..was hoping last nights 12z EC would be similar this morning but it isn't really..

Oh well.

 

  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: Windsor
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold
  • Location: Windsor
Posted

 northwestsnow Looks like this December will join the last ten bar 2022. 
 

Crazy warming trend in the last ten years!

  • Insightful 1
Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted

 That ECM yes the stamps end week 2 continue to show enough disorganised tpv members to mean that there is still light at the end of he tunnel. I would have expected to see much fewer if the strat/trop coupling was so assured beyond the week post 21st when it looks like it has definitely established 

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1
  • Insightful 1
Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
Posted (edited)

 bluearmy To my very untutored eye it does not look to me that the "coupling" is definitely established. That 100mb chart has the trop signature all over it 

ecmwfzm_u_f240.thumb.png.0cdf5578f560b9902546b92f045e162d.pngecmwf100f240.thumb.png.7a1680ff3c1edd603295318f7ce7068c.png

Edited by knocker
  • Like 4
  • Insightful 3
Posted
  • Location: Coventry, West Mids
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winters, warm thundery summers, sunshine (and lots of it)
  • Location: Coventry, West Mids
Posted

Clusters are out. They don't look awful to me, but sure someone will do the analysis. 

ps2png-worker-commands-76589d8c89-8w4g4-6fe5cac1a363ec1525f54343b6cc9fd8-i7a5uwak.thumb.png.0db6e2ad432222a1b6c59f82f48f54e0.png

ps2png-worker-commands-76589d8c89-gttfv-6fe5cac1a363ec1525f54343b6cc9fd8-g1innyom.thumb.png.f8ff8ec5d872af0ae4dcee9789568e45.png

  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire
Posted (edited)

 Ruzzi We'll see

ECM AIFS 0z - taking us back to 1988-89

image.thumb.png.2ec508f15338b859ae2c8a055687a599.png

Edited by LRD
  • Like 2
Posted
  • Location: Crawley
  • Location: Crawley
Posted

 LRD Anyone claiming that the uk winter will be mild is hardly a Nostradamus, it's been the default position for many years now!

  • Like 6
Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire
Posted (edited)

 Mike Poole Seems I've upset a few people with my comment which wasn't overly serious and, at least, was self-aware!

But anyone who got carried away with last night's 12z suite is, IMO, naive to the extreme. As it was all based on a scenario that never comes off - cold zonality. No proper blocking on show at all. Dunno what caused the entire GFS ensemble suite to flip to cold up to and including Xmas Day but it didn't 'feel' right especially when I saw MOGREPS. Yes, I've not been proved right yet. But I reckon I will be. And there'll be the usual gnashing of teeth when some of us did try and give caveats to balance things out. Otherwise this place can sometimes become an echo chamber

I hope I'm wrong, I really do. I suspect I'm not

Edited by LRD
  • Like 7
Posted
  • Location: Windsor
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold
  • Location: Windsor
Posted (edited)

 SukiBrown It’s comparing them against the recent 20 year average. The past ten have all been above average bar one in 2022.

At least in 2022, the 1cm of snow that fell earlier in December stuck around for a while and stayed seasonal!

Edited by Coldie24
  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: North West
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but the prevailing wind!
  • Location: North West
Posted (edited)

I don’t normally analyse the clusters in detail - @WYorksWeather @Mike Poole and others do a great job - but the eps clusters  between days 8 and 10 are not at ‘oblivion’ level. In fact, if you offered them to me 3 months before a random Xmas period, i would probably take them.

image.thumb.png.da4834f1a71da52cfd03ee057472b136.png
The key takeaway is the euro trough. As long as that’s in play, scenarios in the realm of yesterday’s gfs 12z will remain possible. If the models, especially the eps, are underestimating the mjo’s phase 6 progression, then maybe the Atlantic will play ball. Webb has just put out a very illuminating tweet on this matter.

I’m not being optimistic for the sake of it, but I’m just not seeing enough evidence to write off the next 4 weeks. No, I’d doesn’t look like narnia, and the outlook isn’t great, but the below charts reinforce my feeling that the course towards oblivion can still be altered.

GEFS FI

image.thumb.png.dd840808a0b450c2f4abb132b8127638.png

EC46 weeks 2 and 3

image.thumb.png.77c67b5b47ec8bc007f6be2c4f2ca5b0.png
image.thumb.png.bad91aa835da65ad1b633ab1975c5d14.png
cfs mjo

image.thumb.png.c0398b9fd25d57d4426e08f28c389c12.png

Bom extended mjo

image.thumb.png.d5686bb807b885d1f051388cbd9ad2fd.png

December neutral and Nina composites for phase 7

image.thumb.png.189d720252af7499d126d99ceddf85ee.png

image.thumb.png.b98f3051e618fad8bd8c9eb9cf7759d0.png

 

@CoventryWeather the extended clusters look quite interesting, but Xmas day does look flatter.

image.thumb.png.ef7dfd982b43626860ce402731bb309a.png
Keep the faith; for now.

 

Edited by Uncertainty
  • Like 3
  • Thanks 2
  • Insightful 3
Posted
  • Location: Various
  • Location: Various
Posted

The GFS ensembles demonstrate that it’s too early to write off those cold scenarios that showed up yesterday. 

There is still :cold-emoji:hope here!

Screenshot2024-12-14at9_24_35AM.thumb.png.f105da10a96229f2852d6e0ce71c0d5e.png

  • Like 4
Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire
Posted

 SukiBrown That's really unfair

I call cold if I see it (like I did in January and was then proved very, very wrong like many people more expert than me.

I call not-cold when I see it. Or, at least, when I have deep suspicions about cold runs

  • Like 4
Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire
Posted

 CoventryWeather They're a useful tool. I just find they often flatter to deceive

You're right. That set looks promising but, as I say, I think they overdo areas of high pressure (and, let's remember, they are only anomalies so they often look better than the actual reality even if they've been in the right ball park)

Posted
  • Location: Bicester
  • Location: Bicester
Posted
5 minutes ago, Uncertainty said:

EC46 weeks 2 and 3

These charts can be misleading,they could easily be pointing at westerly winds with a lack of blocking over greenland

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire
Posted

 SukiBrown Ah, sorry, my fault. The apologies should come from me

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted

 knocker  the vortex pattern is pretty much in the same locale (atop the pole) all the way from the bottom of the strat to the upper part.  So the upper and lower strat looks well coupled when looking at that and the zonal flow at 60N.  That zonal strength also dips down into the trop in around a weeks time.  As I said a few days ago, coupling has quite a range of definition. It seems that on here we use it to reference when the strat and trop are both strongly zonal at the same time and around a similar vortex ‘shape’.    So far this season it seems that the trop has held sway over the strat. This upcoming ‘coupling’  could well be more of that. But the cross flow chart seems to indicate the stronger flow dipping down. the message has been that this will be temporary. Cohen will update his thoughts this week and I think these will be significant in the respect.  I’m hopeful that we will see a resumption of the upper strat/trop disconnect by years end. 

  • Insightful 3
Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted (edited)
22 minutes ago, LRD said:

Seems I've upset a few people with my comment which wasn't overly serious and, at least, was self-aware!

But anyone who got carried away with last night's 12z suite is, IMO, naive to the extreme. As it was all based on a scenario that never comes off - cold zonality.

Yes, I get that, and my comment was really just picking up on what I thought was premature self-congratulation.  

As probably evident from my posts, I largely agree with you about a more pessimistic view on the chances of cold in the near future, but at this stage it is still about possibilities and probabilities, there are still a variety of outcomes in the mix (as the clusters posted earlier by @CoventryWeather and @Uncertainty show).  Despite my concern about the strengthening vortex, there is still hope in the model output for a different outcome.

I also agree about ‘cold zonality’ being a myth - it certainly is for those in the south, but I would concede that those on higher ground in the north might have a point.

Edited by Mike Poole
  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1
Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted

Can someone post the analogues for phase 6 and phase 7 for Jan Nina and neutral please 

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