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Want to discuss the New Year lows? There's a dedicated thread for that open now

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Posted
  • Location: Hermon Pembrokeshire(184M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Anything severe/extreme
  • Location: Hermon Pembrokeshire(184M ASL)
Posted

 bluearmy I say that😌😂

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
Posted

image.thumb.png.129dd23edb52c7a828a0a9eadae8e163.pngjet looks less supportive of diving south east into Europe on 12z early call is that we see a milder Christmas than 06z now.. with more energy to our north.

image.png

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
Posted

image.thumb.png.913595282bb998142db9118a88ef7155.pngimage.thumb.png.81ed4752db924ec5c188c85c4c64f5bc.png drat.. but as expected now vortex much stronger with no gap to our north..

 

  • Thanks 1
Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
Posted

And there we have image.thumb.png.e089dcff4d37e36a689715862eb9e178.pngback in the morning… 

image.png

  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
Posted

Just watch the ECM throw out a stonker this evening.

  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted (edited)

Another run which evacuates the tpv from mainland Canada - with obvious downstream consequences 

Edited by bluearmy
  • Like 2
Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Location: Cambridge
Posted

The crazy cold temperatures of -20 degrees at 850 hPa ( Gem 234 h ) have reached Turkey in the southern latitudes, I can't believe it, it's a complete simulation joke, don't explain it with mountains, this is a completely different situation and almost impossible

3D373488-9A0F-439E-89A9-FD92C3A5D93F.thumb.png.13d37c5ab10d028fab65f996d9fb2cc7.png

  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted

 Legend.Ice 12 hours later they’re -8c 

clealry something to do with terrain or just an error. Gem will sometimes drop overnight 850 temps significantly 

  • Thanks 1
Posted
  • Location: Hermon Pembrokeshire(184M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Anything severe/extreme
  • Location: Hermon Pembrokeshire(184M ASL)
Posted

It's actually so frustrating for a cold and snow lover to see year after year Turkey and all them southern countries getting snow... And uk just mild. Complete joke of a climate 

  • Like 3
Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted (edited)

The models really have been poor at handling the low to the sw and the shortwave phasing .

After a trend to downgrade any cold they’ve now turned a bit colder for the middle of next week .

The UKMO had this set up on its 00hrs run to T120 hrs 

image.thumb.png.1515d8ea54781d514e0aed80c1f31727.pngimage.thumb.png.a89af66d969c41ba1c3fb04b62956865.png
 

And on its  12 hrs run to T108hrs .

image.thumb.png.ff56d5bffc67c1172c7a0459a3762e42.pngimage.thumb.png.e3cf642670f02e9c170420d8e9310d21.png
 

The GFS did briefly look interesting as it takes that shortwave se , so a slider with a chance of some snow on the eastern flank.

image.thumb.png.cbe8f71ab01e07e175ca2906ddb63ecb.png

And then it went rapidly downhill before throwing a few scraps towards the end of its run .

It’s not looking great for the Christmas period at the moment but there has been a lot  of chopping and changing upstream .

So it’s not over till it’s over ! 
 

PS the 850 charts are for T132 hrs and T120hrs  . Sorry I added the wrong ones in connection with the pressure ones ! 

Edited by nick sussex
  • Like 7
Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
Posted

Yes another variation in fi with the vortex moving to the Asian side, resulting in high pressure building/moving down to fill the gap and eventually migrating to southern Scandi resulting in the return of the cold...

gfsnh-0-342(2).thumb.png.d8f34490e38ca57da7bd60bcc12dac51.png

gfsnh-0-366(1).thumb.png.5b54257d3a75a6cadf8b75612e3d0039.png

gfsnh-12-360(2).thumb.png.23c5673b4409de6289585aeade0f2f18.png

gfsnh-1-342(1).thumb.png.c9381912b08d6b4072066358af6964f1.png

...i suppose its better than just watching a flat westerly to the end of the run...🤪

  • Like 2
Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted

 HarvSlugger actually GW suits SE Europe.. 

Blocking highs in our locale mean the polar air sometimes drops down the eastern side of the Euro High

 

  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
Posted

 phil nw. can you ask the admin to get this added to the Learn About Weather and Meteorology thread, for future reference?

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 2
Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
Posted

 Dorsetbred

Yes a good idea,will try to get that done shortly.

  • Thanks 1
Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted (edited)

 TSNWK he’s teasing - but he’s right !

the ec op in the extended is most definitely an illustration of the trop still leading the dance with the strat.  Although the middle strat responds almost in time with the trop which I assume shows some degree of coupling upwards. (Which we’d seen through November). tbh, we don’t mind it that way. It’s the other way that the issue unless there’s a ssw  

Edited by bluearmy
  • Thanks 1
Posted
  • Location: Whitefield, Manchester @ 100m
  • Location: Whitefield, Manchester @ 100m
Posted

 Sherry I think you missed "I'll get my coat" at the end of that, Fast Show style 😁

  • Like 4
  • Thanks 1
Posted
  • Location: Stratford-upon-Avon (born in Jersey)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, extreme temps.
  • Location: Stratford-upon-Avon (born in Jersey)
Posted (edited)

 Battleground Snow It's up to 120hrs

image.thumb.png.53ef3c2f46f589f960a6e5a3c84ebeb8.png

 

Edited by Snowspout
  • Like 2
Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted

 Battleground Snow

 

when it’s like this no one cares.🤣🤣

IMG_1872.jpeg

  • Like 1
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