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Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
Posted

 TSNWK better than the gfs for sure 

 Snowspout thanks, there are multi sites now that you can view the run around an hour before it comes out on meteociel, it's a shame that meteociel can't get the data earlier, as it used to be great when we all seen an epic run coming out together.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Carrick-on-Shannon, Roscommon, Ireland 70m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow , sunshine
  • Location: Carrick-on-Shannon, Roscommon, Ireland 70m asl
Posted

IMG_0226.thumb.jpeg.f45b56ffa54c3586cd29d25b9c20004a.jpeg
Doesn’t look awful Christmas Eve

 

  • Like 9
Posted
  • Location: Lancing
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Lancing
Posted

17342015719965265106848828251735.thumb.jpg.d56058fb4ac0d41dcb21ef61d62b649c.jpg

Chilly but not cold Easterly on Xmas day from the ECM, would take it.

  • Like 7
Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
Posted

 Murray991 better. Trough needs to move south east though.

Back door scoop of mild air i think on that chart 

Posted
  • Location: Carrick-on-Shannon, Roscommon, Ireland 70m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow , sunshine
  • Location: Carrick-on-Shannon, Roscommon, Ireland 70m asl
Posted

 TSNWK Agreed. Would do nothing for me locally but it would be fresh and dry for the big day!

  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted (edited)

Back end of ecm is an improvement at t168 I’d say it’s on its own compared to other two. 

IMG_1877.jpeg

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Edited by That ECM
  • Like 1
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Posted
  • Location: Lancing
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Lancing
Posted

 That ECM Yeah ECM with quite a different take than the GFS in particular. Period between Christmas and New Year is pretty cold on the ECM.

17342022901143061629135355800423.thumb.jpg.fb92f1acbb553fe5d1ac11faf8291ebb.jpg

  • Like 5
Posted
  • Location: Bicester
  • Location: Bicester
Posted
11 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Back door scoop of mild air i think on that chart 

Wrap around from the med..that’s why,the coldest air is locked away across Norway and usual areas

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Location: Cambridge
Posted

I see a nice infrastructure building for a New Year's Eve where strong cold weather will be seen throughout western Eurasia, I hope I am not wrong, the absence of parasitic LP increases the possibility of the highway being open for a sudden cold attack (especially from the east)

31F86FEE-412A-42F7-9B65-EA206587F27D.thumb.png.52e1f8efc430a01b866de93ef9f8003b.png

  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire
Posted

ECM Day 9 onwards is the absolute best we can squeeze out of the pattern for now. Would settle for that

  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: Various
  • Location: Various
Posted (edited)

The ECM may have had a few too many but this is why it’s wrong to dismiss these scenarios, or write off the rest of this month:

Screenshot2024-12-14at7_03_39PM.thumb.png.f0b630b08be650446e86fd2f4f9b1d9a.png

 

There’s plenty of suggestion in the GFS ensembles that the models are handling the SW and PV with great uncertainty.

The ECM may not look epically cold but it’s a superb synoptic set up with a 1040 mb Scandinavian High. I’ve seen easterlies like this take a few bites before they sink their fangs in deep 😶‍🌫️ 🥶

Screenshot2024-12-14at7_08_55PM.thumb.png.d808c0258388e6748a062d926da9a33f.pngScreenshot2024-12-14at7_08_37PM.thumb.png.42ee6fdd772f23ebbdfd28d934731914.png

 

Lots of scope here for some festive hope :cold-emoji:

Edited by TillyS
  • Like 8
  • Thanks 1
Posted
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold weather - frost or snow
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL
Posted

I suppose we have till what? Around next Thursday to have a much better idea what the weather for Xmas eve/ day will like.  Next weekend to see how the last week of December will pan out overall.

  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Posted

 

 

 

 

 

 sundog tbh if there's not a big  change on the nhp ie any blocking  or ridges I don't think the pv will relent

Posted
  • Location: East Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: snow or warm&dry
  • Location: East Surrey
Posted

The AMOC better hurry up and collapse so we can get snowy winters and ice caps reaching Scotland 🙃

382_2024_7185_Fig16_HTML.png

Posted
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
  • Weather Preferences: Hot n cold
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
Posted

 HarvSlugger mate itdoes me head in year after year. What a joke ay🤬🤬

  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire
Posted

ECM Regimes

Purples (Atlantic ridge) have grown in number in the short term

image.thumb.png.0d675aee0e566cdb989a779400614f99.png

Positive NAO blues remain small-ish in number

  • Like 4
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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted (edited)

ECM clusters T192-T240:

IMG_9680.thumb.png.dddbffecca0e2d23d39253bd3e343d22.png

The most important influence on our weather is the large high to our west, southwest, south or northwest.  Clusters 4 (6) and 5 (6) are flat and a +NAO pattern in train.  Cluster 6 (5) is the most northerly, leading to a northwesterly flow.  Clusters 1 (12) and 3 (11) push it slightly towards Scandi, with the isobars cutting back, both digging a trough into Europe.  Cluster 2 (11) retracts the high the furthest west, leading to a flow closer to northerly with a marked Europe trough too.  

That detail actually sets up a wide range of possibilities in the extended, T264+:

IMG_9681.thumb.png.c7376da35dfb8fae51537ad0ba5c6bd9.png

Cluster 1 (22) collapses to +NAO, but the others are of more interest, cluster 2 (10) brings a -NAO and high over Iceland by day 15, cluster 3 (10) strengthens the MAR.  Cluster 4 (9) has heights flirting with Greenland (rather improbably).

The uncertainty continues, and it is interesting that the GFS 12z while horrid, still shows some evidence of a sporadic disconnect between the strat and trop:

IMG_9679.thumb.png.38b1d2b1570a5118fe0c256b136600a0.png

Worth noting some of these runs have had off the scale zonal winds at about 10 days in, something seems to be happening at that point up top.

So the ‘will they won’t they couple’ stand off goes on with different runs suggesting different things.  

Edited by Mike Poole
  • Like 5
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  • Insightful 1
Posted
  • Location: Isle of Lewis
  • Weather Preferences: Sun in summer, snow in winter, wind in Autumn and rainbows in the spring!
  • Location: Isle of Lewis
Posted (edited)

I'm still sticking to my guns. 

Green Christmas  but still expect something more seasonal between Christmas and New Year .  Not the expected and anticipated 1967 winter . Just a more disrupted amplified weather pattern.  

 

I'm quite excited about January . The last two years January has been by far our most wintery month.  Peeps concentrate on the MJO in phase 6 but phase 7 can also produce the goods .   and it is an  amplified strong  phase 7 by the 28th of December can produce wintriness too 10 to 15 days later. 

Given the apparently negative  A0  and positive NAO , expect the unexpected.  Wintriness from the NW to NE  a distinct possibility.  Over the next 4 weeks expect chop and change Zonal mild to zonal cold but after that watch that  Pandora's box  of winter delights unfold. GEFS(3).thumb.png.d4982f6464c77048ac7617d4b7ba32d4.png

 

 

 

Edited by Ladyofthestorm
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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire
Posted

 bluearmy Yep. Lots of conflicting signals as I said the other day. Blizzard81 has been saying this for a while and he's spot on

Trouble is, 'Block' can cover a multitude of sins and I guess Atlantic Ridge could also cover a fair bunch of options that still result in mild-ish conditions for the southern half of the UK

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